As of November 5, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary is wintering well across three of four hives: Hive #2 holds a robust 89.1°F (31.7°C) cluster with rising acoustic energy, Hive #1 is settling into winter with damping intact, and Iris has completed her expected end-of-brood downshift to a healthy 69.3°F (20.7°C) cluster with a solid +25.7°F (+14.3°C) offset above the 37.0°F (2.8°C) outdoor air. Hive #3 remains the one hive to watch — its sustained high humidity (avg 78.3%, spiking to 83.8%) combined with a confirmed acoustic and thermal change-point since November 1–3 warrants attention on your next stores visit; the right winter cadence for all four is fondant or sugar bricks over the top bars and a calm heft every 2–3 weeks through spring.
Across the apiary, the two insulated poly double-deeps (Hive #1 and Hive #3) that sit the farthest below their brood-season all-time averages are also showing the strongest acoustic activity rhythms (9/10 and 6/10 bands cycling), consistent with research showing daily temperature amplitude inversely tracks brood mass — these colonies are contracting their thermal footprint as brood winds down while the adult cluster remains acoustically engaged (Harrison et al. 2026; Meikle et al. 2017). Hive #3's strong negative deconfounded correlation between in-hive humidity and gas resistance (r=−0.93) points to metabolic water condensing on cooler surfaces and influencing the MOX sensor — winter respiratory water production is the mechanistic bridge (Winston 1987; Southwick 1991).
Hive #2 and Hive #1 retain tight 2.2°F–3.5°F (1.2–1.9°C) daily swings well above the 35.6–54.1°F (2.0–12.3°C) outdoor range, confirming excellent cluster damping in their insulated poly enclosures; Iris shows a 3.3°F (1.8°C) swing at a +25.7°F (+14.3°C) offset with the bottom-box sensor gradually cooling as the cluster migrates upward — all three are textbook winter cluster physiology. Hive #3 matches its neighbors thermally (2.7°F / 1.5°C swing, +47.3°F / +26.3°C offset) but diverges sharply on humidity, holding 75–84% RH against the apiary's typical 38–49% — a hive-specific signal that sets it apart from the shared seasonal trend.
-
Iris healthy Score: 68/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive averaged 69.3°F (20.7°C) today — holding a healthy +25.7°F (+14.3°C) warm offset above the 37.0°F (2.8°C) outdoor air with a tight 3.3°F (1.8°C) daily swing, confirming this is the expected end-of-brood downshift described in the WINTER CLUSTER SETTLING note, not a relapse. Your logs show the 1:1 syrup feeder has been topped daily since October 5, and you noted uptake likely declined as daytime temperatures fell through the ~50°F (10°C) processing floor — this is exactly right, and an untouched feeder in this cold is normal cluster behaviour; the winter form of your excellent care is fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars. The bottom-box sensor will continue cooling gradually as the cluster migrates upward through winter — watch the warm offset trajectory at your 2–3 week heft.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsTemperature held a remarkably stable 68.1–71.4°F (20.0–21.9°C) arc over 24 hours — a 3.3°F (1.8°C) swing against the outdoor's 18.5°F (10.3°C) range, confirming the insulated poly enclosure and cluster together are providing strong thermal damping. Humidity is steady at 58.4–59.8% (avg 59.0%), right in the healthy 50–70% winter band, with no diurnal excursion — a flat RH line is active hygroregulation. Sound is stable at −51.5 dBFS average (all bands within ±1.3 dB of the new-format baseline), and the 14-day acoustic trend is flat — winter-quiet levels that are entirely consistent with a broodless clustered colony. Vibration kurtosis is 2.7 (normal, no impulsive events), dominant band 20–50 Hz; the per-band rhythm noted a shift from 160–200 Hz to 80–120 Hz as the dominant daily rhythm — consistent with reduced fanning effort as temperatures settle into cluster-maintenance mode. The gas heater-scan at 556 kΩ (320°C ref) sits above the all-time average of 411 kΩ, with mid-step resistances (250–320°C) elevated relative to the low steps — a shape consistent with lower in-hive VOC load as brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene) decline with the brood-break, a benign seasonal shift.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs humidity_in (14d) | r = +0.52The deconfounded r=+0.52 between in-hive temperature and humidity in Iris reflects psychrometric physics: as the cluster cools from brood temperature toward the 68–71°F (20–21°C) winter maintenance band, the same absolute water content registers as a slightly higher RH% — a cooler air mass holds less water before saturation. This is brood-break thermoregulation interacting with moisture, not a ventilation problem; the flat 59% RH line confirms the colony is managing its microclimate well within the healthy winter 50–60% band (Human et al. 2006).📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Eouzan et al. 2019 (PLOS ONE), Ellis et al. 2008gas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.91The strong partial correlation (gas resistance ~ in-hive temp | outdoor temp, r=−0.91) captures the seasonal VOC decline accompanying the brood-break: as brood rearing winds down, E-β-ocimene and other larval volatiles diminish and fanning effort drops, reducing the reducing-gas load on the MOX plate and allowing resistance to rise back toward the clean-air baseline — a healthy, expected chemical signature of a colony transitioning out of active brood rearing (Maisonnasse et al. 2010; Seeley 1985).📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010 (PLoS ONE), Seeley 1985, Stalidzans et al. 2017⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by telemetry — temperature cannot see capped cells; a heft at the 2–3 week cadence is the only confirmation▹ Action: Replace the liquid syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster on the top bars — clusters below ~50°F (10°C) daytime cannot process liquid syrup▹ Action: Include Iris in your 2–3 week winter heft cadence; if she feels light, add another slab of fondant immediately -
Hive #2 healthy Score: 78/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 averaged 89.1°F (31.7°C) today — holding a robust +52.1°F (+29.0°C) warm offset above the 37.0°F (2.8°C) outdoor air with an impressively tight 2.2°F (1.2°C) daily swing, the strongest thermal performance in the apiary and a reassuring sign of a well-clustered colony in her single-deep poly box. The 14-day acoustic trend has risen +3.4 dBFS with a pronounced spectral shift into the 100–260 Hz low bands (up +7.5 dB), consistent with residual syrup-processing fanning and heightened colony activity — your logs confirm the 1:1 feeding regime ran through late October with declining uptake as temperatures fell, and this acoustic signature is its expected tail. Humidity averaged 39.5% (range 37.7–41.2%), just below the healthy 40–60% winter floor; this is a screened-floor ventilation and dry Los Alamos November air effect, passive and worth a glance at your next heft.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsTemperature held 87.8–90.0°F (31.0–32.2°C) over 24 hours — a 2.2°F (1.2°C) swing against the outdoor's 18.5°F (10.3°C) range, excellent cluster damping. The 14-day weekly temperature trend has been remarkably flat (92.5→91.8→91.8°F / 33.6→33.2→33.2°C), suggesting this single-deep colony may still have some brood or is a dense, well-insulated cluster holding near the brood band. Sound averaged −28.3 dBFS, the highest in the apiary, with the dominant band at 200–260 Hz (−23.5 dB) — all low bands 100–260 Hz are up +4.3–5.0 dB above the new-format baseline, the spectral low-frequency shift noted in the 14-day trend, consistent with fanning harmonics. Vibration kurtosis is 4.8 (approaching the >5.0 impulsive threshold but not there yet — no action warranted; consistent with an active colony); dominant vibration band 80–120 Hz, no strong per-band daily rhythm. The gas heater-scan at 73.5 kΩ sits above the all-time average of 55.8 kΩ — mid-step shape (100–200°C steps up +19–25%) suggests a slight shift toward heavier, less-reactive volatiles, consistent with metabolic water cycling and honey-store evaporation in a warm single-deep box rather than any concerning change.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs humidity_in (14d) | r = +0.8The strong deconfounded r=+0.80 (p=1.4e-194) between in-hive temperature and humidity in Hive #2 is a psychrometric relationship amplified by colony activity: as this warm single-deep cluster sustains near-brood temperatures, active bees consuming stores and respiring produce more metabolic water, raising both the temperature footprint and the absolute humidity inside the box simultaneously — the coupled signal is healthy metabolic activity, not a ventilation defect (Human et al. 2006; Ellis et al. 2010).📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Eouzan et al. 2019 (PLOS ONE), Ellis et al. 2008temperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.51The partial correlation gas resistance ~ in-hive temp | outdoor temp (r=−0.40) reflects that as Hive #2's cluster sustains its warm core, fanning and metabolic activity keep reducing-gas VOC load elevated (resistance lower), while cooler brief periods see less circulation and slightly higher resistance — a dynamic metabolic signature of an active winter cluster still generating significant heat and consuming stores (Bencsik et al. 2023; Seeley 1974).📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010 (PLoS ONE), Bencsik et al. 2023 (Sensors), Seeley 1974⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 39.5%, just below the 40% healthy winter floor — screened floor and dry Los Alamos air is the most likely cause; passive monitoring⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep configuration carries the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary▹ Action: Replace the liquid 1:1 syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars▹ Action: Prioritise Hive #2 in your 2–3 week winter heft cadence — her single-deep margin is the tightest in the apiary; if light, add fondant immediately -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 76/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 averaged 84.6°F (29.2°C) today — holding a strong +47.6°F (+26.4°C) warm offset above the 37.0°F (2.8°C) outdoor air with a 4.0°F (2.2°C) daily swing and damping fully intact; the 14-day cooling drift of −10.0°F (−5.5°C) alongside the confirmed temperature change-point around November 1 is the expected seasonal brood wind-down, with the cluster contracting its thermal footprint as brood rearing ends — not a relapse. Your logs confirm the 1:1 syrup feeding regime ran through late October with declining uptake as temperatures fell; the 14-day acoustic softening (−5.4 dBFS, low bands 100–260 Hz down −5.2 dB) matches the thermal trend and is the acoustic signature of the same seasonal contraction, with the warm offset and damping intact as reassuring anchors. Humidity held 47.0–48.6% (avg 47.7%), comfortably in the healthy 40–60% winter range; watch the warm offset trajectory at your 2–3 week heft.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsTemperature ran 82.3–86.3°F (28.0–30.1°C) — a 4.0°F (2.2°C) swing against the outdoor's 18.5°F (10.3°C) range, strong damping. Sound averaged −22.9 dBFS; the dominant band is 200–260 Hz (−18.0 dB), though all bands sit −2.4 to −3.8 dB below the new-format baseline — a modest winter softening that the WINTER REGIME note explicitly flags as season-skewed comparison, not a decline signal. The acoustic per-band analysis shows 9/10 bands cycling daily (strongest rhythm in 1500–3600 Hz at 11.7 dB, weakening slightly from 12.4→10.2 dB half-to-half) with a second-half rise in the 1500–3600 Hz band (+2.0 dB) suggesting evening activity. Vibration kurtosis is 3.2 (normal), dominant band 80–120 Hz, with all 6 vibration bands showing a daily cycle — the rhythm shift from 80–120 Hz to 120–160 Hz in the second half is consistent with reduced fanning as the colony cools. The gas heater-scan at 645 kΩ (320°C ref) is above the all-time average of 458 kΩ, with a confirmed change-point of +90 kΩ around October 31 — low-step resistances (100–200°C) rose +23–26%, suggesting lighter VOC load as brood pheromones decline; this tracks the temperature change-point on November 1, a coherent brood-wind-down signature across both channels.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.47The partial correlation gas resistance ~ in-hive temp | outdoor temp (r=−0.86) alongside the confirmed co-occurring change-points (temperature step −3.56°C ~Nov 1, gas resistance step +90 kΩ ~Oct 31) documents the brood wind-down in two independent channels simultaneously: as brood rearing ends, E-β-ocimene and nurse-bee VOC output drops, resistance rises toward clean-air levels, and the thermal setpoint releases from 35°C toward the broodless cluster low-20s — a coherent multi-channel signature of a healthy seasonal transition (Maisonnasse et al. 2010; Harrison et al. 2026).📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010 (PLoS ONE), Harrison et al. 2026 (J. Exp. Biol.), Stalidzans et al. 2017sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.39The partial correlation sound energy ~ in-hive temp | outdoor temp (r=+0.39) reflects that as Hive #1's brood footprint contracts and the thermal mean falls, colony acoustic output falls proportionally — daily temperature amplitude is inversely correlated with brood mass (Meikle et al. 2017), and the shared −5 dB acoustic / −10°F thermal 14-day drift is the single-thermistor brood-status estimator doing exactly what it should: reading a colony transitioning to broodless winter cluster maintenance.📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017 (Apidologie), Minaud et al. 2024 (Ecol. Indic.), Harrison et al. 2026⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by telemetry — a heft at the 2–3 week cadence is the only confirmation▹ Action: Replace the liquid 1:1 syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars▹ Action: Include Hive #1 in the 2–3 week winter heft cadence — her strong thermal and acoustic profile cannot confirm what is capped in the cells -
Hive #3 warning Score: 58/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 averaged 85.3°F (29.6°C) today — holding a solid +48.3°F (+26.8°C) warm offset above the 37.0°F (2.8°C) outdoor air with damping intact at a 2.7°F (1.5°C) swing, and the thermal and acoustic change-points of early November (temperature −4.5°C ~Nov 2, sound −6.76 dB ~Nov 1) are consistent with the same seasonal brood wind-down seen in Hive #1 — the warm offset remains the reassuring anchor. What sets Hive #3 apart from her neighbors is a now-sustained humidity anomaly: the 24h humidity averaged 78.3% (range 75.2–83.8%) against an all-time average of 41.3%, with a confirmed change-point of +36.7% around November 3 and a strong deconfounded anti-correlation with gas resistance (r=−0.93) — metabolic water from the upper-box cluster condensing on cooler surfaces is the most likely explanation, and worth a visual check at your next stores visit to confirm ventilation is adequate and condensation is not pooling on the brood frames. Your logs confirm the 1:1 feeding regime ran through late October; the sound trend is actually rising slightly in the second half of today (+1.6 dBFS) and the colony is acoustically active — this is a humidity watch, not a thermal concern.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsTemperature held 84.4–87.1°F (29.1–30.6°C) — a 2.7°F (1.5°C) swing, the tightest in the double-deep poly hives, consistent with a dense upper-box cluster. Humidity is the standout: 75.2–83.8% (avg 78.3%), well above the 40–60% healthy winter range and approaching the >80% condensation-risk threshold; this is a sustained hive-specific signal that began ~November 3 and has not resolved. Sound averaged −25.1 dBFS with a rising second-half trend (+1.6 dBFS); the dominant band is 200–260 Hz, and the 1500–3600 Hz band shows a strengthening daily rhythm (16.2→18.8 dB amplitude) — the colony is acoustically engaged. Vibration RMS averaged 0.0214 g (the highest in the apiary at 1.9× daily peak ratio), kurtosis 3.3 (normal), dominant band 80–120 Hz — active and metabolically engaged, consistent with the highest daily activity ratio across all hives. The gas heater-scan at 85 kΩ sits below the all-time average of 113 kΩ; the humidity–gas resistance anti-correlation (r=−0.93) and the November 3 gas change-point (−32.8 kΩ) together confirm the MOX plate is responding to elevated water vapor, not a separate VOC event — a moisture-driven signal, not a chemistry alarm.
🔬 Correlations & Discoverieshumidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.93The strong deconfounded r=−0.93 between in-hive humidity and gas resistance in Hive #3 is a MOX sensor water-vapor effect: as metabolic water from the upper-box cluster condenses on cooler comb and inner walls (honey metabolism produces ~0.66 lb water per lb consumed; Winston 1987), the elevated in-hive humidity independently suppresses the MOX plate's resistance by blocking reaction sites on the SnO2 layer — the two change-points arriving together on November 3 confirm a single moisture event driving both channels simultaneously (Burgues & Marco 2018; Abidin et al. 2022).📚 Reference: Winston 1987 (The Biology of the Honey Bee), Southwick 1991, Burgues & Marco 2018 (Sensors), Abidin et al. 2022 (Sensors)sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.74The strong partial correlation sound energy ~ in-hive temp | outdoor temp (r=+0.74) documents that Hive #3's acoustic energy is tightly coupled to its own thermal state independent of weather — as the upper-box cluster contracts its brood footprint and the mean falls, sound output tracks it proportionally; the fact that both have change-points in the same early-November window and the sound is now rising slightly in the second half of the day suggests the cluster is settling rather than declining (Meikle et al. 2017; Harrison et al. 2026).📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017 (Apidologie), Harrison et al. 2026 (J. Exp. Biol.), Minaud et al. 2024 (Ecol. Indic.)⚠️ Issue: Sustained high humidity anomaly: 24h avg 78.3% (range 75.2–83.8%), confirmed change-point ~November 3, against an all-time avg of 41.3% — metabolic condensation in the upper box is the leading explanation; monitor for sustained readings above 80% in coming days⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by telemetry — a heft at the 2–3 week cadence is the only confirmation▹ Action: Replace the liquid 1:1 syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster on the top bars▹ Action: At your next heft visit (within 2–3 weeks), take a brief look at the upper-box inner cover and top frames — note whether condensation is visible on the inner walls or pooling on the frames, and confirm the cluster is tight in the upper box; no urgency beyond this planned visit given the warm offset and active acoustics▹ Action: Include Hive #3 in the winter heft cadence; her high daily vibration peak ratio (1.9×) suggests the most metabolically active cluster in the apiary and potentially the fastest store burn rate