AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-11-04

As of November 4, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary is wintering well: Hive #1 and Hive #2 hold strong warm offsets and active acoustic signatures, Iris has completed her expected end-of-brood downshift to a healthy 70.8°F (21.6°C) cluster with a solid +27°F (+15°C) offset above the 40.3°F (4.6°C) outdoor air, and Hive #3 remains the one hive worth watching — its 14-day acoustic and thermal softening has deepened alongside a new humidity spike that warrants a look on your next stores visit. Winter feeding for all four is fondant or sugar bricks over the top bars; a calm heft and knock-and-listen every 2–3 weeks is the right cadence through spring.

Hive #3's strong deconfounded humidity–gas resistance coupling (r=−0.90) is a textbook winter condensation signature: as the cluster burns stores, metabolic water condenses on cooler upper-box surfaces, elevating RH and simultaneously lowering MOX gas resistance — the chemistry of moisture, not pathology (Winston 1987; Gas/VOC Fermentation section).

Hive #2 and Hive #1 show tight 1.8°F–2.1°F (1.0–1.2°C) daily swings anchored 48–49°F (~27°C) above the outdoor reference, confirming excellent cluster damping in their insulated poly boxes; Iris holds a 2.8°F (1.6°C) swing at +27.6°F (+15.3°C) offset, consistent with a broodless wintering cluster migrating upward from the bottom-box sensor; Hive #3 shows a 2.4°F (1.3°C) swing at +25°F (+14°C) offset with a new humidity anomaly (avg 56.9%, spiking to 84.7%) worth monitoring.

• Iris healthy Score: 68/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 70.8°F (21.6°C) today — holding a healthy +27.6°F (+15.3°C) warm offset above the 40.3°F (4.6°C) outdoor air with an exceptionally tight 2.8°F (1.6°C) daily swing, confirming the WINTER CLUSTER SETTLING note: this is the expected one-time end-of-brood downshift, not a relapse, and damping is fully intact. Your logs confirm the 1:1 syrup feeder has been topped daily since October 5; with daytime temperatures now reliably below 50°F (10°C), the cluster can no longer process liquid syrup — the winter form of your excellent feeding care is fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the top bars. The bottom-box sensor will continue cooling gradually as the cluster migrates upward through winter, which is the cluster's normal migration, not decline; watch the warm offset trajectory over the next 2–3 weeks.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds a remarkably flat 69.4–72.2°F (20.8–22.3°C) arc with a 2.8°F (1.6°C) peak-to-trough swing — well below the 5.4°F brood-damping threshold, consistent with a well-insulated poly box and a resting broodless cluster; the deconfounded analytics confirm in-hive temperature couples to outdoor only through the shared diurnal cycle (deconfounded r=+0.18), with a 310-minute thermal lag reflecting healthy enclosure buffering. Humidity averaged 58.9% (range 58.3–59.6%), sitting comfortably in the healthy 40–60% winter band with a change-point step up to this level around Oct 24 — likely reflecting the cluster's metabolic water as brood rearing wound down. Sound averaged −51.5 dBFS (all-time avg −48.3 dBFS), with per-band deltas uniformly −2.2 to −3.6 dB across the spectrum — a flat, season-skewed shift consistent with winter regime quieting, not a collapse; the 1500–3600 Hz band dominates at −48.5 dB, normal for a resting cluster. Vibration RMS 0.0178 g (all-time avg 0.0172 g), kurtosis 3.2 (normal), dominant band 80–120 Hz; the vibration rhythm shifted from 50–80 Hz to 20–50 Hz between the first and second half of the window — worth watching but within normal circadian DVAV variation. Gas resistance at 518,612 Ohms is elevated above the all-time avg of 400,970 Ohms; the heater-scan curve slopes cleanly from 61,539 kΩ at 100°C to 251 kΩ at 400°C, a smooth reducing-VOC profile consistent with cluster respiration and the partial correlation of gas resistance with temperature (r=−0.91 controlling for outdoor) — the low-temperature steps (100–150°C) show a strengthening daily rhythm (+9→+24% swing), which tracks the metabolic water cycle of the wintering cluster. Battery stable at 4,012 mV, well above the 3,974 mV all-time low.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature_in vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.52

  The genuine deconfounded temp–humidity coupling (r=+0.52) in Iris reflects the psychrometric inverse: as the cluster cools from brood temperature toward the wintering low-20s°C, the same absolute water content reads as higher RH% — so the humidity step up around Oct 24 is partly the cluster cooling, not added moisture. This is healthy comb-buffered hygroregulation, not a condensation concern at the current 58.9% average.

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019 (PLOS ONE), Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006

  gas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.91

  The strong partial correlation of gas resistance with in-hive temperature (r=−0.91 controlling for outdoor) means as the cluster cools, MOX resistance rises — fewer metabolic VOCs and less fanning circulation in the broodless winter cluster reduces the reducing-gas load on the SnO2 plate. The current 518 kΩ reading above the 401 kΩ all-time average is simply the quieter winter air of a non-brooding colony, a benign seasonal fingerprint.

  📚 Reference: Seeley 1985, Winston 1987, Bosch Sensortec BME688 datasheet
  ⚠️ Issue: Liquid 1:1 syrup feeder cannot be processed at current temperatures (daytime highs below 50°F / 10°C) — transition to fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by telemetry — temperature cannot see capped cells; a heft at the 2–3 week cadence is the only confirmation

  ▹ Action: Replace the liquid syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster on the top bars

  ▹ Action: Include Iris in your 2–3 week winter heft cadence; if she feels light, add another slab of fondant immediately
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 78/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 89.5°F (32.0°C) today — holding a robust +49°F (+27°C) warm offset above the 40.3°F (4.6°C) outdoor air with an impressively tight 1.8°F (1.0°C) daily swing, and the 14-day temperature drift of −3.7°F (−2.0°C) is modest and within the expected seasonal brood wind-down. Your logs confirm the 1:1 syrup feeding regime continued through late October with declining uptake as temperatures fell; the most distinctive feature remains the 14-day acoustic rise (+4.7 dBFS, low bands 100–260 Hz up +5.7–5.9 dB above baseline), consistent with residual syrup-processing fanning winding down — the colony is active and healthy. Humidity averaged 39.8% (range 38.7–41.2%), just below the ideal 40–60% winter band; with a screened floor and dry Los Alamos November air this is ventilation physics, and a passive note to watch at your next heft.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds an exceptionally flat 88.6–90.4°F (31.4–32.5°C) arc — a 1.8°F (1.0°C) peak-to-trough swing, well below the 5.4°F brood-damping threshold — confirming excellent cluster thermoregulation; the weekly trend is a near-plateau at 92.3→91.8→92.1°F (33.5→33.2→33.4°C), showing Hive #2 is holding her cluster temperature more tightly than any other hive in the apiary. Sound averaged −27.9 dBFS versus an all-time avg of −31.2 dBFS — currently +3.3 dB ABOVE baseline, the opposite direction from winter quieting; the dominant band is 200–260 Hz (−23.3 dB, up +5.7 dB from baseline), with 6/10 bands showing a daily rhythm and the dominant rhythm band shifting from 100–150 Hz to 150–200 Hz between the first and second half — the per-band spectral shift toward lower frequencies (+8.5 dB over 14 days in 100–260 Hz) and the rising low-band daily rhythm are consistent with sustained fanning/processing activity. Vibration RMS 0.0131 g (near the 0.0132 g all-time avg), kurtosis 4.1 (mildly elevated but below the 5.0 impulsive-event threshold), dominant band 80–120 Hz — normal colony metabolic activity; 11 of 15 days show a clear daily vibration peak (1.4× baseline), a healthy diurnal fanning rhythm. Gas resistance at 73,733 Ohms is elevated above the 54,534 Ohms all-time avg; the heater-scan curve shows a notable upturn at 375–400°C (65–71 kΩ), and the low-temperature bands (100–150°C) show a +27%/+23% energy shift — this curve shape, with its upturn at high plate temperatures, combined with the genuine deconfounded temp–gas coupling (r=+0.56), is consistent with the VOC chemistry of active fanning and syrup-residue processing. Battery at 4,050 mV, charging +24 mV, well above the 3,916 mV all-time low.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature_in vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.83

  The strong deconfounded temp–humidity coupling (r=+0.83) in Hive #2 — with a partial correlation of +0.62 controlling for outdoor weather — reflects active in-hive hygroregulation: as cluster temperature rises with activity, fanning circulates warmer, slightly more humid air, and as it falls at rest, humidity damps down in step; this is the comb-buffered moisture homeostasis of a healthy, active winter cluster, not a condensation signal.

  📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol.

  temperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.56

  The deconfounded temp–gas coupling (r=+0.56, partial r=−0.33 controlling for outdoor) captures the fanning–VOC cycle: when colony activity and temperature rise, fanning circulates hive-air VOCs past the MOX plate, lowering resistance; when the cluster rests and cools, resistance recovers — a healthy metabolic rhythm, not a disease signal, fully explained by the syrup-processing activity seen in the low-band acoustic shift.

  📚 Reference: Seeley 1985, Bosch Sensortec BME688 datasheet, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors
  ⚠️ Issue: Liquid 1:1 syrup feeder cannot be processed at current temperatures — transition to fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 39.8%, just below the 40% healthy winter floor — passive monitoring; screened floor and dry Los Alamos air is the most likely cause

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep configuration carries the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary

  ▹ Action: Replace the liquid 1:1 syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars

  ▹ Action: Prioritise Hive #2 in your 2–3 week winter heft cadence — her single-deep margin is the tightest in the apiary; if light, add fondant immediately
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 averaged 86.5°F (30.3°C) today — holding a strong +46°F (+26°C) warm offset above the 40.3°F (4.6°C) outdoor air with a tight 2.1°F (1.2°C) daily swing, and presenting as the most acoustically energetic hive in the apiary at −21.9 dBFS (all-time avg −19.9 dBFS — only 2.0 dB below baseline, well within seasonal winter drift). Your logs confirm the 1:1 syrup feeding regime continued through late October with declining uptake as temperatures fell below the processing floor; the 14-day acoustic softening (−4.3 dBFS) and thermal drift (−8.1°F / −4.5°C) are both moving in the direction the seasonal brood wind-down predicts, and damping is fully intact. Humidity averaged 47.3% (range 46.5–48.3%), comfortably within the healthy 40–60% winter range; watch the warm offset trajectory over the next 2–3 weeks.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds a 85.4–87.5°F (29.6–30.8°C) arc — a 2.1°F (1.2°C) peak-to-trough swing — with the deconfounded in-hive/outdoor temperature correlation reduced to r=+0.01 (purely diurnal, 240-minute thermal lag), confirming the colony is damping ambient changes, not tracking them; the weekly trend shows 93.0→93.2→92.3°F (33.9→34.0→33.5°C), a very gradual wind-down from near-brood-temperature. Sound averaged −21.9 dBFS; the dominant band is 200–260 Hz (−16.8 dB), with 9/10 bands showing a daily rhythm (strongest in 1500–3600 Hz at 12.0 dB daily swing) and the 1500–3600 Hz band trending upward +2.4 dB in the second half of the day — a healthy acoustic signature with per-band deltas of only −1.4 to −2.9 dB from the brood-season baseline, the smallest spectral shift in the apiary. Vibration RMS 0.0162 g (all-time avg 0.0161 g), kurtosis 2.8 (normal), dominant band 80–120 Hz; 14 of 15 days show a clear daily vibration peak (1.6× baseline), the dominant rhythm band shifted from 80–120 Hz to 120–160 Hz between halves — a subtle circadian migration consistent with DVAV activity (Ramsey et al. 2020). Gas resistance at 570,633 Ohms versus 448,610 Ohms all-time avg; the heater-scan curve is a smooth monotonic decline from 83,340 kΩ at 100°C to 240 kΩ at 400°C with no upturn, indicating a low-VOC winter air profile — consistent with a resting, non-brooding cluster; the low-temperature bands (100–150°C) show a +24% energy shift, tracking the same winter metabolic-water respiratory rhythm seen across the apiary. Battery at 4,156 mV, the highest in the apiary and well above the 4,076 mV all-time low.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.32

  The partial correlation of sound energy with in-hive temperature (r=+0.32 controlling for outdoor) in Hive #1 captures the brood-wind-down coupling: as the cluster cools from near-brood temperature, fanning activity and colony sound output both decline together — the acoustic softening and thermal drift are one biological event (the end of the brood season), not two independent concerns.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Stabentheiner et al. 2010, PLoS ONE

  temperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.46

  The deconfounded temp–gas coupling (r=+0.46, partial r=−0.78) in Hive #1 is the strongest weather-corrected gas–temperature relationship in the apiary: as the cluster cools and activity quiets, fanning declines and VOC circulation through the MOX sensor drops, raising resistance; the smooth monotonic heater-scan curve with no chemical inflection points confirms a clean, low-activity winter air fingerprint.

  📚 Reference: Seeley 1985, Bosch Sensortec BME688 datasheet
  ⚠️ Issue: Liquid 1:1 syrup feeder cannot be processed at current temperatures — transition to fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars

  ▹ Action: Replace the liquid 1:1 syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars

  ▹ Action: Include Hive #1 in the 2–3 week winter heft cadence — her strong thermal and acoustic profile cannot confirm what is capped in the cells
• Hive #3 warning Score: 58/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 85.3°F (29.6°C) today — a +25°F (+14°C) warm offset above the 40.3°F (4.6°C) outdoor air with damping intact at a 2.4°F (1.3°C) swing, but two signals have deepened since yesterday and now sit together outside this hive's own baseline: the 14-day acoustic softening has reached −11.8 dBFS overall (260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band now 11.6 dB below all-time baseline) alongside a −10.0°F (−5.5°C) temperature drift, and a new humidity anomaly has appeared — the 24h humidity swung from 40.9% to 84.7% (avg 56.9%), up from a 40.5% all-time average, flagged as a robust z=+3.1 anomaly with a confirmed change-point on Nov 2. Your logs confirm the 1:1 syrup feeding regime ran through late October; the combined acoustic, thermal, and humidity picture is the most complex in the apiary and warrants a look at cluster position, brood coverage, and ventilation on your next stores visit — the warm offset remains intact so there is no urgency beyond folding this into your planned heft.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds an 84.8–87.3°F (29.3–30.7°C) arc — a 2.4°F (1.3°C) swing, well-damped — but the weekly trend shows 95.9→93.7→92.7°F (35.5→34.3→33.7°C) and a confirmed change-point step of −4.29°F around Nov 2, a sustained shift that is the most significant thermal change-point in the apiary this window; the sensor sits in the upper box (box 2 of 2), so the cluster is still occupying this sensor's zone, and the cooling trend is worth tracking. Humidity is the headline anomaly: the 24h range of 40.9–84.7% (avg 56.9%) against an all-time avg of 40.5% is a stark departure; the genuine deconfounded humidity–gas resistance coupling (r=−0.90) confirms these two channels are moving together as a real hive-specific signal — likely winter condensation from metabolic water on the cooler upper-box walls, a physics phenomenon (Winston 1987; Gas/VOC Fermentation section), not pathology. Sound averaged −25.0 dBFS (all-time avg −16.2 dBFS, a 8.8 dB gap); the dominant band is 200–260 Hz (−22.4 dB), with per-band deltas of −5.0 to −11.6 dB uniformly across the spectrum — the 260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band is the most depressed at −11.6 dB; the winter regime note applies, but the magnitude of this shift is the largest in the apiary and has been deepening for two weeks, meriting a passive flag. The 1500–3600 Hz band's daily rhythm is strengthening (15.2→17.6 dB swing), suggesting the colony retains diurnal acoustic activity even as the overall level has fallen. Vibration RMS 0.0214 g (all-time avg 0.0208 g), kurtosis 2.5 (normal to mildly smooth), dominant band 80–120 Hz; 14 of 15 days show a clear daily vibration peak (1.8× baseline, the highest ratio in the apiary), with the dominant rhythm band shifting from 50–80 Hz to 80–120 Hz — the high vibration peak-to-baseline ratio combined with a kurtosis below 3.0 is consistent with an active cluster still producing regular fanning/metabolic pulses. Gas resistance at 62,961 Ohms versus 111,798 Ohms all-time avg — elevated VOC load at 56% below baseline; the heater-scan curve shows very low resistance across all plate temperatures (1,095 kΩ at 100°C, falling to 58–68 kΩ at 350–400°C with a slight upturn at the high end), and the low-temperature bands (100–150°C) show a +19%/+17% energy shift with the 150°C rhythm strengthening from +19% to +35% swing — this curve shape combined with the high humidity strongly suggests moisture-laden air is the primary driver of the elevated VOC signal, consistent with condensation chemistry (Burgues & Marco 2018). Battery at 4,020 mV, charging +22 mV, above the 3,812 mV all-time low.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.9

  The very strong deconfounded humidity–gas resistance coupling (r=−0.90) in Hive #3 is a condensation fingerprint: as in-hive humidity rises (peaking at 84.7%), water vapor adsorbs onto the MOX SnO2 plate and lowers resistance, producing a correlated gas reading — this is moisture chemistry, not an independent VOC signal; the 150°C heater-scan step's strengthening daily rhythm (+19→+35% swing) is the low-temperature humidity-sensitive band responding to the condensation cycle, consistent with Burgues & Marco 2018.

  📚 Reference: Winston 1987, The Biology of the Honey Bee, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors 18(2):339, Gas/VOC Fermentation section

  sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.7

  The strong partial correlation of sound energy with in-hive temperature (r=+0.70 controlling for outdoor) means the acoustic softening and thermal drift in Hive #3 are tightly coupled as one biological event — the 14-day trend of both declining together is consistent with a brood wind-down and possible cluster contraction downward away from the upper-box sensor; this coupling is stronger than in any other hive in the apiary and is the reason a visual check of cluster position at the next heft is warranted (Minaud et al. 2024).

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic.
  ⚠️ Issue: Continued 14-day coupled acoustic and thermal softening: sound down −11.8 dBFS overall (260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band 11.6 dB below all-time baseline) alongside a −10.0°F (−5.5°C) temperature drift, with a confirmed change-point on Nov 2 — two independent signals moving together for two weeks

  ⚠️ Issue: New humidity anomaly: 24h range 40.9–84.7% (avg 56.9%) against an all-time avg of 40.5%, flagged as a robust z=+3.1 anomaly; likely winter condensation from metabolic water in the upper box — monitor for sustained high humidity above 80% in coming days

  ⚠️ Issue: Liquid 1:1 syrup feeder cannot be processed at current temperatures — transition to fondant or a sugar brick over the top bars

  ▹ Action: Replace the liquid 1:1 syrup feeder with fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster on the top bars

  ▹ Action: On your next heft visit (within 2–3 weeks), take a brief look at cluster position and brood coverage — confirm the cluster is occupying the upper box and note whether condensation is visible on the inner walls; the warm offset and damping remain intact so no urgency beyond this planned visit

  ▹ Action: Include Hive #3 in the winter heft cadence; her highest vibration daily-peak ratio (1.8×) reflects the most metabolically active cluster in the apiary and potentially the fastest store burn rate