AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-11-01

As of November 1, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary shows three colonies — Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 — holding solid brood temperatures with tight damping well above the 46.0°F (7.8°C) outdoor reference, while Iris carries two sustained independent anomalies now sixteen days old that still warrant a physical look this week. The single most important action across all four hives right now is a routine heft: with 6 of the last 7 days offering little or no foraging weather, income is effectively zero and temperature, sound, and vibration cannot tell you what is capped in the cells — only lifting each hive can.

Across the three healthy colonies, brood-temperature damping is tight (1.5–2.0°F / 0.8–1.1°C daily swing) against a 46.0°F (7.8°C) outdoor reference, consistent with Kleinhenz et al. 2003 showing heater-bee endothermy sustains the 34–36°C setpoint independent of ambient in well-populated colonies. Iris's sustained co-movement of falling temperature and rising gas resistance (deconfounded r=−0.82 / partial r=−0.97) mirrors the brood-pheromone load reduction expected when a brood zone contracts or goes broodless — a chemical fingerprint of the same brood-break story her acoustics tell (Maisonnasse et al. 2010; Seeley 1985).

Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 each maintain tight 1.5–2.2°F (0.8–1.2°C) diurnal swings anchored ~46–48°F (25–27°C) above the outdoor reference, confirming brood-core damping fully intact across all three; Iris shows a 10.1°F (5.6°C) swing this period with a 81.7°F (27.6°C) mean — damping is present but the mean has drifted a further ~3.1°F (~1.7°C) below yesterday, now 5.4°F (3.0°C) below her all-time average.

• Iris warning Score: 42/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 81.7°F (27.6°C) today — now 5.4°F (3.0°C) below her all-time average of 87.1°F (30.6°C) — while still holding a ~35.7°F (~19.8°C) warm offset above the 46.0°F (7.8°C) outdoor reference, confirming the cluster is producing heat and has not collapsed to ambient; the sustained acoustic step-down (all 10 bands 6.7–10.9 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline) persists for a sixteenth consecutive day with stable shape and no single-event change-point, and the deconfounded temperature–gas correlation (partial r=−0.97) is consistent with a reduced brood-pheromone load from a contracting or broodless nest — a brood-break or requeening gap remains the leading explanation. Humidity is 55.8% average, squarely in the healthy 50–70% band; vibration kurtosis is 3.0 (normal) with no impact events; a physical inspection this week to assess queen and brood status and heft for stores remains the right call, and stores cannot be confirmed by any sensor.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Iris's 24h swing of 10.0°F (5.6°C) — from 75.7°F (24.3°C) to 85.7°F (29.7°C) — is wider than yesterday's 1.1°F (0.6°C) reported swing and reflects the continuing cooling drift now reaching 75.7°F (24.3°C) at the cool end; damping is retained (35.7°F / 19.8°C warm offset above outdoor) so this is not an ambient-tracking collapse, but the widening swing warrants watching as a potential early indicator of cluster contraction. Vibration shows a clear daily rhythm (14/15 days with distinct peaks, 16.4→24.8 mG), dominant at 80–120 Hz; the gas heater-scan curve is flat with no strong daily rhythm and no shape shift, consistent with a low or absent brood-volatile load. Sound is stable with no per-band daily rhythm (max 1.3 dB), and the vibration dominant rhythm band shifted from 120–160 Hz to 20–50 Hz in the second half — worth passive monitoring but no colony-state implication on a single shift.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.97

  The near-perfect partial correlation between falling temperature and rising gas resistance in Iris (controlling for outdoor weather) is the chemical fingerprint of a shrinking brood zone: as brood area contracts, larval E-β-ocimene and brood-pheromone load falls, reducing the colony's total VOC output and allowing MOX resistance to rise back toward the clean-air baseline — a behaviorally coherent signal of the same brood-break or requeening gap that the acoustic step-down suggests, not a disease or ventilation event.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Seeley 1985, Honeybee Ecology, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, PLoS ONE

  vibration_rms vs vibration_kurtosis (14d) | r = +0.42

  The moderate positive coupling between overall vibration amplitude and kurtosis in Iris is consistent with a colony where brief activity bursts (fanning, cluster reorganization) transiently lift both RMS and impulsiveness above baseline — kurtosis at 3.0 today is fully normal and no sustained impulsive events have occurred, so this relationship reflects ordinary diurnal colony motion rather than disturbance.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Tautz 1996
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic step-down now 16 days: all 10 spectral bands 6.7–10.9 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline, change-point confirmed ~October 17 — not explained by weather, season, or apiary-wide trend

  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained brood-temperature cooling drift: 14-day fall from 93.7°F (34.3°C) to 81.7°F (27.6°C) avg — now 5.4°F (3.0°C) below all-time average; warm offset retained (~35.7°F / ~19.8°C above outdoor) and damping intact, but the mean has not reversed

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7+ days; foraging effectively closed for 6 of the last 7 days and telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in the cells

  ▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week to assess queen presence, brood pattern, and heft for stores — two independent sensor categories (16-day acoustic step-down and sustained cooling drift) warrant a look; a brood-break or requeening gap is the most likely explanation if the cluster is present and warm, but only a physical look confirms it

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris when you open her; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 80/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 92.6°F (33.7°C) today — 0.1°F (0.1°C) above her all-time average of 92.5°F (33.6°C) — with a tight 3.1°F (1.7°C) daily swing and a robust ~46.6°F (~25.9°C) warm offset above the 46.0°F (7.8°C) outdoor reference, confirming solid active thermoregulation inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band; the 14-day acoustic rising trend (+3.2 dBFS) continues with low bands (100–260 Hz) now 4.7–6.1 dB above baseline and today's dominant energy in the 200–260 Hz colony-fundamental band at −25.4 dB — an acoustically and thermally healthy single-deep colony heading into November. Humidity averaged 47.1%, consistent with dry Los Alamos November air through a screened floor; vibration kurtosis is 3.7 (normal), and stores remain the priority action given the single-deep configuration.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #2 shows an active diurnal temperature cycle averaging +2.2°F (+1.2°C) daily oscillations with 13/15 days showing distinct vibration peaks (13.0→18.3 mG, avg 1.4×), dominant at 80–120 Hz — a consistent fanning/activity rhythm; the sound spectrum shows the strongest per-band daily rhythm in the apiary (10/10 bands cycling, strongest at 100–150 Hz with 3.2 dB swing), and a dominant rhythm band shift from 1500–3600 Hz to 150–200 Hz in the second half of the window is consistent with the ongoing low-band acoustic rise. The gas heater-scan dominant rhythm band shifted from 200°C to 350°C steps between the first and second half, with low-temperature steps (100–200°C) rising 28–36% — likely reflecting increased propolis or brood-pheromone cycling as activity builds; high-temperature steps (350–400°C) are stable, confirming this is a shape change rather than a sensor drift.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.73

  The positive deconfounded temperature–humidity coupling in Hive #2 (r=+0.73, partial r=+0.55 controlling for outdoor weather) reflects the well-documented psychrometric relationship in an active brood nest: as worker metabolism and fanning increase, both heat production and water vapor from larval respiration rise together, so humidity and temperature co-vary on the same metabolic driver — a marker of a well-populated, actively brooding colony rather than a ventilation problem.

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften, Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol., Eouzan et al. 2019, PLoS ONE
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep configuration carries the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves and 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup placed over the cluster while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick when it stays colder
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 92/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 averaged 93.4°F (34.1°C) today — matching her all-time average of 93.3°F (34.1°C) exactly — with a remarkably tight 1.7°F (0.9°C) daily swing, a ~47.4°F (~26.3°C) warm offset above the 46.0°F (7.8°C) outdoor reference, and a sound spectrum classified STABLE: all 10 bands within 1.2 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline, with dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band at −14.8 dB — the most thermally consistent and acoustically stable colony in the apiary for the third consecutive week. Humidity averaged 46.9%, consistent with dry November Los Alamos air; vibration kurtosis is 2.6 (normal), and the 14-day gentle warming drift (+1.8°F / +1.0°C) alongside stable acoustics is consistent with a well-nourished colony sustaining active brood rearing heading into winter.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #1 shows the tightest diurnal temperature clamping in the apiary at just +1.5°F (+0.8°C) oscillation, with 14/15 days showing distinct vibration peaks (15.2→23.9 mG, avg 1.6×) dominant at 80–120 Hz; the sound spectrum has a strong daily rhythm (9/10 bands, strongest at 1500–3600 Hz with 12.9 dB swing), and the vibration dominant rhythm band shifted from 80–120 Hz to 5–20 Hz in the second half — consistent with DVAV circadian behaviour (nocturnal low-frequency activity peaks described by Fletcher 1975 and Ramsey et al. 2018) rather than any disturbance. Gas heater-scan shows a rising trend at low-temperature steps (100–200°C, +18–20%), likely tracking gradual propolis or brood-pheromone baseline increase consistent with the gentle temperature warming trend and active brood maintenance.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.87

  The three-way deconfounded coupling — temperature with humidity (r=+0.87), temperature with gas resistance (r=+0.61), and humidity with gas resistance (r=+0.48) — tells a coherent metabolic story: as heater-bee activity increases to maintain the 34–36°C brood setpoint, both larval water-vapor output and brood-pheromone VOC load rise together, so all three channels co-vary on a single latent 'brood-intensity' driver; the PCA colony-state index rising over the 14-day window confirms Hive #1 is sustaining and gently building brood activity heading into November.

  📚 Reference: Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol., Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, PLoS ONE
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide November stores check — the best thermal profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder
• Hive #3 warning Score: 65/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 93.5°F (34.2°C) today — 1.2°F (0.7°C) below her all-time average of 94.7°F (34.8°C) but solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a tight 1.7°F (0.9°C) daily swing and a ~47.5°F (~26.4°C) warm offset above the 46.0°F (7.8°C) outdoor reference, confirming brood damping fully intact; the 14-day acoustic softening continues (−4.9 dBFS overall, low bands 100–260 Hz down 3.7–4.7 dB from all-time baseline) with a strong sound–temperature partial correlation (r=+0.72 controlling for weather), consistent with gradual brood contraction reducing both the thermal and acoustic footprint heading into November. Humidity averaged 40.3% (24h range 36.7–43.3%), persistently below the 40% watch threshold, driven by dry outdoor air through the screened floor — the brood core is holding 93–95°F (34–35°C) so larval desiccation risk is low, but worth passively monitoring; vibration RMS is the highest in the apiary at 0.0207 g average with strong daily peaks, and a heft for stores this week is the priority action.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #3 shows a compressed 1.7°F (0.9°C) diurnal temperature swing with tight clamping and 14/15 days with distinct vibration peaks (19.9→36.0 mG, avg 1.8×), the largest daily vibration excursions in the apiary and dominant at 80–120 Hz; the sound spectrum shows a daily rhythm strongest at 1500–3600 Hz (15.5 dB swing), but the dominant colony-communication bands (260–350 Hz, 200–260 Hz) have been weakening in rhythm strength over the window (260–350 Hz: 5.7→1.7 dB, 800–1500 Hz: 6.5→3.1 dB), consistent with the ongoing brood-contraction story. The gas heater-scan shows a strengthening daily rhythm at mid-temperature steps (150–280°C, now +24–41% swing versus +4–19% in the first half), suggesting increasing diurnal VOC cycling — likely brood-pheromone and propolis volatiles circulating with the colony's activity rhythm as the cluster reorganizes its brood footprint.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.75

  The negative deconfounded humidity–gas coupling in Hive #3 (r=−0.75) reflects the known MOX sensor confounding by water vapor: as in-hive humidity falls (dry Los Alamos air ventilating through the screened floor), fewer water molecules compete with VOCs at the SnO2 reaction sites, so gas resistance reads higher — this is a sensor physics effect riding the same ventilation driver as the humidity channel, not an independent chemical event, and should not be read as a VOC increase independent of the moisture change.

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.72

  The strong partial sound–temperature correlation in Hive #3 (r=+0.72 controlling for outdoor weather) directly reflects the brood-intensity link: a contracting brood zone requires fewer heater bees (lower temperature) and generates less acoustic energy from their activity; that both channels are drifting together over 14 days — −2.6°F (−1.4°C) temperature, −4.9 dBFS sound — is the expected multi-sensor fingerprint of a colony downshifting brood rearing heading into November, with damping fully retained confirming the cluster is healthy.

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie, Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol., Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic.
  ⚠️ Issue: Continued 14-day low-band acoustic softening (100–260 Hz now down 3.7–4.7 dB from all-time baseline) alongside a −2.6°F (−1.4°C) temperature drift over 14 days — both consistent with seasonal brood contraction, but if the trend continues another week a brief inspection to confirm brood coverage and queen status would be worthwhile

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 40.3% (24h range 36.7–43.3%), persistently at or below the 40% lower watch boundary — driven by dry November outdoor air through the screened floor; passive note at current brood temperatures with the core holding 93–95°F (34–35°C), but worth monitoring if it continues

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest activity and vibration level in the apiary means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — the highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: Keep an eye on the continued low-band acoustic softening and the slow temperature drift over the coming week — brood damping remains fully intact and this is consistent with normal seasonal contraction, but if both trends continue past another week a brief inspection to confirm brood coverage and queen status would be worthwhile