AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-31

As of October 31, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary shows three colonies — Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 — holding solid brood temperatures with tight damping well above the 48.0°F (8.9°C) outdoor reference (hub readings cross-checked and slightly corrected against the local weather service, the routine calibration for any continuously powered hub), while Iris carries two sustained independent anomalies now fifteen days old that still warrant a physical look this week. The single most important action across all four hives is a routine heft: with 6 of the last 7 days offering little or no foraging weather, income is effectively zero and temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm what is capped in the cells — only hefting can.

Across the apiary, Hive #1 and Hive #2 both show a 14-day warming drift (+2.8°F and +2.2°F respectively) concurrent with rising acoustic energy, consistent with brood-expansion increasing metabolic heat load as documented by Kleinhenz et al. 2003 and Meikle et al. 2017 — a reassuring whole-colony signal heading into November.

Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 maintain tight diurnal swings of 1.1–2.1°F (0.6–1.2°C) anchored 45–46°F (25–26°C) above the 48.0°F (8.9°C) outdoor reference, confirming brood-core damping fully intact across all three; Iris holds a 2.8°F (1.5°C) swing at 84.8°F (29.3°C) mean — damping present but the mean remains ~2.8°F (1.6°C) below her all-time average for a fifteenth consecutive day alongside the sustained acoustic step-down.

• Iris warning Score: 44/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 84.8°F (29.3°C) today — 2.8°F (1.6°C) below her all-time average of 87.6°F (30.9°C) — while still holding a ~36.8°F (~20.4°C) warm offset above the 48.0°F (8.9°C) outdoor reference, confirming the cluster is producing heat and has not collapsed to ambient; the acoustic step-down confirmed around October 17 is now fifteen days old, with all 10 sound bands 7.8–12.8 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline, and because the sound fell gradually over two weeks (not in a single step coincident with the temperature) the leading explanation remains a brood-break or seasonal contraction — post-swarm requeening gap, supersedure, or dearth-driven laying pause — rather than an abrupt population loss. Humidity at 57.2% average sits comfortably in the healthy 50–70% band; vibration kurtosis 2.6 is normal with no impact events; gas resistance at 412 kΩ remains above her all-time average of 373 kΩ, consistent with reduced brood-volatile load from a contracting or broodless cluster; a physical inspection this week to assess queen and brood status and heft for stores remains the right call.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Iris shows a tight 2.8°F (1.5°C) daily swing (83.7–86.5°F / 28.7–30.3°C) with a clear ~8-hour warm phase — damping is intact and the diurnal rhythm is orderly, not ambient-tracking. Vibration carries a consistent daily rhythm with 14/15 days showing a peak above baseline (avg 1.5×, baseline ~16.4 mG rising to ~25.0 mG), and the dominant vibration rhythm band shifted from 120–160 Hz to 20–50 Hz between the first and second half of the window — worth watching as a possible change in colony substrate activity. Gas heater-scan shows no strong daily rhythm but a mid-to-high-temperature band energy shift (320°C +18%, 375°C +17%, 400°C +17%) — the high-temperature steps are the most stable reference points; the shape shift toward the upper plate temperatures, alongside the acoustic step-down, is consistent with a reduced brood-pheromone load (less E-β-ocimene from fewer larvae) rather than any acute chemical event. The 14-day acoustic trend is a sustained −5.5 dBFS fall; the 14-day temperature drift is −8.6°F (−4.8°C) — both ongoing and neither reversing.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.81

  After removing the shared diurnal cycle, Iris shows a strong inverse coupling between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r=−0.81): as the brood temperature drifts lower, gas resistance rises — meaning VOC load is falling as the colony cools. This is the expected brood-pheromone signature of a contracting or broodless cluster: fewer larvae means less E-β-ocimene and other brood volatiles, reducing the reducing-gas load on the MOX plate. The pattern corroborates a brood-break interpretation rather than any VOC-generating stress event.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010 PLoS ONE (E-β-ocimene brood pheromone), Stabentheiner et al. 2010 PLoS ONE, Seeley 1985 Honeybee Ecology

  vibration_rms vs vibration_kurtosis (14d) | r = +0.43

  A modest positive coupling between overall vibration amplitude and kurtosis (r=+0.43) indicates that the daily activity peaks that drive up RMS also carry slightly more impulsive character — consistent with normal foraging and fanning bursts rather than any sustained disturbance; kurtosis stays at 2.6, well within the normal ~3.0 range, confirming no impact events.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020 Sci. Rep., Nieh & Tautz 2000 J. Exp. Biol.
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic step-down now 15 days: all 10 spectral bands 7.8–12.8 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline (max deviation 420–500 Hz at −12.8 dB), change-point confirmed ~October 17 — not explained by weather, season, or apiary-wide trend

  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained brood-temperature cooling drift: 15-day fall from ~93.5°F (34.2°C) to 84.8°F (29.3°C) avg; warm offset retained (~36.8°F / ~20.4°C above outdoor) and damping intact, but mean is 2.8°F (1.6°C) below all-time average and has not reversed

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7+ days; foraging effectively closed for 6 of the last 7 days and telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in the cells

  ▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week to assess queen presence, brood pattern, and heft for stores — two independent sensor categories (15-day acoustic step-down and sustained cooling drift) warrant a look; a brood-break or requeening gap is the most likely explanation if the cluster is present and the warm offset continues, but only a physical look confirms it

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris when you open her; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross — not by dose — using 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 78/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 93.3°F (34.1°C) today — 0.8°F (0.5°C) above her all-time average of 92.5°F (33.6°C) — with a tight 1.4°F (0.8°C) daily swing and a robust ~45.3°F (~25.2°C) warm offset above the 48.0°F (8.9°C) outdoor reference, confirming solid active thermoregulation squarely inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band; the 14-day acoustic trend continues its +3.4 dBFS rise, with low bands (100–260 Hz) now +4.3–6.6 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline and today's dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band at −25.5 dB — an acoustically and thermally healthy single-deep colony heading into November. Humidity averaged 47.8%, on the drier side but consistent with dry October Los Alamos air through a screened floor; vibration kurtosis is 5.2, a mild impulsive spike to note but not a sustained concern (single-day, not a trend); heft for stores is the priority action given the single-deep configuration.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #2 shows an exceptionally compressed 1.4°F (0.8°C) daily swing, the tightest in the apiary, reflecting excellent brood-core thermoregulation in a well-insulated single-deep; all 10 sound bands carry a clear daily rhythm with the dominant rhythm band shifting from 1500–3600 Hz in the first half of the window to 100–150 Hz in the second half — consistent with a transition from high-frequency wingbeat-dominated activity to more sustained low-frequency colony hum, possibly as foraging opportunity declines in late October. Gas heater-scan shows a notable shape shift: the low-temperature steps (100°C +32%, 150°C +29%, 200°C +24%) have risen relative to the high-temperature steps, while the dominant rhythm band shifted from 200°C to 350°C — low-step increases are the most humidity-sensitive, and Hive #2's humidity co-varies positively with temperature (r=+0.79 deconfounded), so this gas-curve shape change likely reflects the colony's own moisture dynamics (brood respiration, hygroregulation) rather than a discrete chemical event. Vibration shows no strong daily rhythm today (max 1.0 dB in 5–20 Hz), but 13/15 days show activity peaks averaging 1.4× baseline — a normal diurnal foraging/fanning pattern.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.79

  After removing the diurnal cycle, Hive #2 shows a genuine positive coupling between in-hive temperature and humidity (r=+0.79): as the brood core warms, relative humidity rises — the expected signature of active brood rearing driving both metabolic heat and respiratory water vapor into the same microenvironment. This is the textbook healthy-brood signal: heater bees warming the cluster simultaneously raise local RH through larval respiration and evapotranspiration, consistent with Human et al. 2006 on brood-area hygroregulation.

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006 Naturwissenschaften, Ellis et al. 2008 J. Insect Physiol., Eouzan et al. 2019 PLoS ONE

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.56

  A moderate positive deconfounded coupling between temperature and gas resistance (r=+0.56) — opposite in sign to Iris's inverse relationship — indicates that as Hive #2's brood core warms, gas resistance also rises slightly (VOC load decreases), suggesting the colony is actively ventilating and circulating air rather than accumulating volatiles; this is consistent with the strong low-band acoustic rise (increased fanning/activity) keeping the air chemistry relatively clean inside an active, well-heated nest.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010 PLoS ONE, Seeley 1974 J. Insect Physiol.
  ⚠️ Issue: Vibration kurtosis reached 5.2 today — a mild impulsive event; monitor over the next 1–2 days to confirm it does not repeat or escalate

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep configuration is the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves and 6 of the last 7 days had little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup placed over the cluster while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: Keep an eye on vibration kurtosis over the next few days — today's 5.2 reading is a mild flag; if it repeats or climbs above 5.0 again alongside a sound shift, a quick external check of the hive stand is worthwhile
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 91/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 averaged 93.6°F (34.2°C) today — just 0.2°F (0.1°C) above her all-time average of 93.4°F (34.1°C) — with a remarkably tight 1.1°F (0.6°C) daily swing, a ~45.6°F (~25.3°C) warm offset above the 48.0°F (8.9°C) outdoor reference, and a sound spectrum classified STABLE: all 10 bands sit within 1.8 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline, with the dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band at −13.9 dB average — the most acoustically consistent and thermally regulated colony in the apiary for the second consecutive week. Humidity averaged 46.9%, on the drier side but within tolerance for dry October Los Alamos air through a screened floor; vibration kurtosis is 2.8 (normal), and the 14-day acoustic and thermal trends are both gently rising, consistent with a well-nourished colony sustaining active brood rearing heading into November.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #1 shows the tightest temperature clamping in the apiary at just 1.1°F (0.6°C) peak-to-trough — textbook brood-core stenothermy; the 14-day warming drift of +2.8°F (+1.6°C) from 90.8°F (32.6°C) to 93.6°F (34.2°C) is gradual and consistent with brood-nest expansion through October, not a step-change from feeding. The strongest sound daily rhythm lives in the 1500–3600 Hz band (12.9 dB swing), with 7/10 bands showing a clear cycle — a healthy acoustic fingerprint dominated by the colony-fundamental 260–350 Hz band; the 800–1500 Hz band has eased −2.2 dB over the window, a minor spectral rebalancing consistent with seasonal activity changes. Vibration shows all 6 bands with a daily cycle (strongest in 20–50 Hz at 2.6 dB), with the dominant rhythm band shifting from 160–200 Hz to 5–20 Hz between the first and second half — the lower-frequency shift likely reflects reduced high-frequency fanning effort as October cools and brood-curing demand drops. Gas heater-scan shows moderate band energy shifts at the low-to-mid steps (150°C +17%, 200°C +16%, 250°C +15%) tracking the positive humidity–temperature coupling, consistent with brood metabolic activity rather than any discrete VOC event.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.92

  The strongest deconfounded coupling in the entire apiary: Hive #1's in-hive temperature and humidity co-vary with r=+0.92 independently of weather, meaning the colony itself is driving both channels together — heater bees raising the brood-core temperature simultaneously generate the respiratory and transpirational moisture that raises local RH. This is the clearest possible signature of vigorous, coordinated brood thermoregulation (Kleinhenz et al. 2003) and active hygroregulation (Human et al. 2006), and it explains why the PCA colony-state index has temperature, humidity, and gas resistance as its dominant channels.

  📚 Reference: Kleinhenz et al. 2003 J. Exp. Biol., Human et al. 2006 Naturwissenschaften, Eouzan et al. 2019 PLoS ONE

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.36

  A modest but genuine partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature (r=+0.36, controlling for outdoor weather) reflects the well-documented link between colony metabolic activity, brood-heat production, and acoustic output: more bees heating more brood generate both more warmth and more sound, consistent with Meikle et al.'s colony-strength-from-temperature work.

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017 Apidologie, Bencsik et al. 2023 Sensors
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the best thermal profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder
• Hive #3 warning Score: 68/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 93.6°F (34.2°C) today — 1.1°F (0.6°C) below her all-time average of 94.7°F (34.8°C) but solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a 2.1°F (1.2°C) daily swing and a ~45.6°F (~25.3°C) warm offset above the 48.0°F (8.9°C) outdoor reference, confirming brood damping is fully intact; the 14-day acoustic softening of −5.8 dBFS continues with low bands (100–260 Hz) down 3.5–4.9 dB from their all-time baseline, and the partial correlation between sound and temperature (r=+0.75 controlling for weather) confirms this acoustic softening is genuinely colony-linked — consistent with brood contraction reducing both the thermal and acoustic footprint heading into November. Humidity averaged 38.9% (24h range 34.9–43.6%), persistently below the 40% watch boundary driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor — worth noting passively at current brood temperatures with the core holding 93–95°F (34–35°C); vibration RMS is the highest in the apiary at 0.021 g average with 14/15 daily peaks (avg 1.8×), and a heft for stores is the priority action given this colony's activity level.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #3 shows a 2.1°F (1.2°C) daily swing — slightly wider than Hive #1 and Hive #2 but well within the healthy brood-clamping threshold; the 14-day cooling drift of −2.8°F (−1.6°C) from 96.5°F (35.8°C) to 93.6°F (34.2°C) is gradual with damping retained, consistent with the seasonal brood-rearing wind-down documented by Meikle et al. 2017. The sound spectrum's strongest daily rhythm is in the 1500–3600 Hz band (15.3 dB swing), but the 260–350 Hz rhythm is weakening (6.1→1.6 dB) and that band is down −4.9 dB from all-time baseline — the colony-fundamental hum is softening as October deepens. Gas heater-scan shows the strongest per-band daily rhythm in the low 100°C step (+30% swing) with 9/10 bands cycling; the 150°C and 250°C steps are strengthening rhythms (+41% and +30% swings respectively), which the negative deconfounded humidity–gas coupling (r=−0.78) interprets as drier air reducing the water-vapor confound on the low-temperature MOX steps, making the residual VOC signal more visible — consistent with the persistently low 38.9% RH. Vibration is the most energetic in the apiary with all 6 bands elevated (dominant 80–120 Hz at −8.2 dB vs all-time −8.6 dB) and 14/15 days showing activity peaks; the daily spike pattern (avg 1.8× baseline, typical baseline ~19.9 mG to ~36.0 mG peaks) reflects a colony still foraging and fanning actively despite the acoustic softening.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.78

  After removing the diurnal cycle, Hive #3 shows a genuine inverse coupling between in-hive humidity and gas resistance (r=−0.78): when humidity rises, resistance falls — meaning the MOX plate is confounded by water vapor, not by a real VOC event. This is the documented humidity–MOX cross-sensitivity (Burgues & Marco 2018): adsorbed water competes with VOC molecules for reaction sites, lowering resistance when humidity rises independently of any colony chemistry. The practical implication is that Hive #3's gas readings should always be cross-checked against the humidity channel before any VOC interpretation.

  📚 Reference: Burgues & Marco 2018 Sensors, Abidin et al. 2022 Sensors

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.75

  A strong partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature (r=+0.75, controlling for outdoor weather) confirms that the ongoing acoustic softening is colony-driven, not weather noise: as the brood footprint contracts (temperature drifting slightly lower), acoustic output contracts proportionally — the expected autumn brood-rearing wind-down signature described by Meikle et al. 2017, where daily temperature amplitude inversely tracks brood mass.

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017 Apidologie, Minaud et al. 2024 Ecol. Indic.
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 38.9% (24h range 34.9–43.6%), persistently below the 40% lower watch boundary for two consecutive days — driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; passive note at current brood temperatures with no larval desiccation risk while the core holds 93–95°F (34–35°C), but worth monitoring if it continues

  ⚠️ Issue: Continued 14-day low-band acoustic softening (100–260 Hz now down 3.5–4.9 dB) alongside a −2.8°F (−1.6°C) temperature drift — both consistent with seasonal brood contraction, but if the trend continues another week a brief inspection to confirm brood coverage and queen status would be worthwhile

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest activity and vibration level in the apiary means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — the highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: Keep an eye on the continued low-band acoustic softening and the slow temperature drift over the coming week — brood damping remains intact and this is consistent with seasonal contraction, but if the drift continues past another week a brief inspection to confirm brood coverage and queen status would be worthwhile