AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-30

As of October 30, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary has three colonies holding solid brood temperatures with damping intact — Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 all sit within or just below the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band with warm offsets of 43–45°F (24–25°C) above the 50.3°F (10.2°C) outdoor reference (weather-service figures used for all outdoor comparisons; the hub thermometer reads warmer due to PCB self-heating and is not used here) — while Iris continues her now-thirteen-day acoustic step-down paired with a sustained cooling drift, making her the one hive that warrants a physical look this week. The single most important action across the whole apiary right now is a routine heft of every hive: with 6 of the last 7 days offering little or no foraging weather, income is effectively zero, and temperature, sound, and vibration cannot tell you what is capped in the cells.

All four hives show the classic autumn thermoregulation-plus-acoustics divergence predicted by Minaud et al. 2024 and Harrison et al. 2026: the three healthy colonies maintain tight 1.8–2.6°F (1.0–1.4°C) daily swings with strong warm offsets while their sound spectra hold at or above baseline, whereas Iris diverges on both axes simultaneously — the only pattern that warrants verification rather than a seasonal explanation.

Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 continue to show tight diurnal swings of 1.6–2.6°F (0.9–1.4°C) anchored well above the 43.4–62.4°F (6.3–16.9°C) outdoor range, confirming brood-core damping is fully intact across those three colonies; Iris shows a compressed 2.5°F (1.4°C) swing at a cooler 84.8°F (29.3°C) mean — damping still present but the mean sitting 3.0°F (1.7°C) below her all-time average and 13 days into a coincident acoustic step-down.

• Iris warning Score: 40/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 84.8°F (29.3°C) today — 3.0°F (1.7°C) below her all-time average of 87.8°F (31.0°C) — while still holding a ~34.5°F (~19.1°C) warm offset above the 50.3°F (10.2°C) outdoor reference, confirming the cluster is producing heat and has not collapsed to ambient; the acoustic step-down confirmed around October 17 is now thirteen days old, with all 10 sound bands 8.0–12.8 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline, and the system-generated diagnostic note suggesting a swarm event should be set aside — because the sound spectrum dropped gradually over two weeks rather than in a single step coincident with temperature, the most likely explanation is a natural brood-break or seasonal contraction (post-swarm requeening gap, supersedure, or dearth-driven laying pause) in which the cluster is simply not heating a full brood zone, with no sign of the abrupt population loss a swarm would produce. The two sustained, independent anomalies (acoustic and thermal) still warrant a physical inspection this week to assess queen and brood status and to heft for stores; vibration kurtosis 2.8 is normal with no impact events, vibration spectrum is exactly on its all-time baseline, humidity at 58.0% average sits comfortably in the healthy 50–70% band, and gas resistance at 402 kΩ remains above her all-time average of 369 kΩ, consistent with reduced brood-volatile load from a contracting or broodless cluster.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Iris's 24h swing of 2.5°F (1.4°C) — peak 85.7°F (29.9°C) to trough 83.2°F (28.5°C) — is well within the healthy brood-clamping criterion (below 5.4°F / 3°C), confirming damping is retained despite the cooler mean; the vibration dominant rhythm band shifted from 5–20 Hz to 120–160 Hz between the first and second half of the window, a subtle low-frequency activity migration worth watching but not alarming on its own; gas heater-scan shows 8/10 bands cycling with the strongest daily rhythm at 400°C (+14% swing) and a +22–23% upward shift at the 200–320°C mid-steps, consistent with a modest reduction in brood-pheromone load as brood area contracts, not a VOC event; the sound spectrum shows no strong per-band daily rhythm (max 1.8 dB), with the 1500–3600 Hz rhythm weakening from 4.3 dB to 1.3 dB — further evidence of reduced colony acoustic activity rather than a discrete population-loss event.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.82

  As Iris's brood-core temperature has drifted lower over the past two weeks, gas resistance has risen (r=−0.82 on deseasonalized residuals) — the inverse is the expected physiology: a contracting or broodless cluster emits fewer reducing volatiles (brood pheromones, propolis terpenes, honey-ripening esters) so the MOX plate sees less reaction and reports higher resistance; this is a clean correlate of reduced brood mass, not a pathological signal, and it is directionally consistent with a natural autumn brood-break or requeening gap.

  📚 Reference: Stabentheiner, Kovac & Brodschneider 2010, PLoS ONE, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE (E-β-ocimene brood pheromone), Seeley 1985, Honeybee Ecology

  sound_level vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.31

  The partial correlation of sound with temperature (controlling for outdoor temp, r=+0.31) shows that the acoustic step-down tracks the thermal cooling in Iris rather than weather — both channels moved together on approximately the same change-point (~October 17), which is the multi-week gradual pattern expected from a natural brood-break contraction rather than the abrupt, single-day step that a swarm or sudden queen loss would produce (Kanelis et al. 2023: queenless sound changes stabilise within ~5 h; Ramsey et al. 2020: swarm departure produces a sharp step drop in all channels simultaneously).

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Kanelis et al. 2023, Biology 12:1392, Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic step-down now 13 days: all 10 spectral bands 8.0–12.8 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline (max deviation 420–500 Hz at −12.8 dB), change-point confirmed ~October 17 — not explained by weather, season, or the other three hives

  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained brood-temperature cooling drift: 14-day fall from ~93.3°F (34.1°C) to 84.8°F (29.3°C) avg; warm offset retained (~34.5°F / ~19.1°C above outdoor) and damping intact, but mean is 3.0°F (1.7°C) below all-time average and has not reversed

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7+ days; foraging effectively closed for 6 of the last 7 days and telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in the cells

  ▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week to assess queen presence, brood pattern, and to heft for stores — two independent sensor categories (13-day acoustic step-down and sustained cooling drift) warrant a look; a brood-break or requeening gap is the most likely explanation if the cluster is present and the warm offset continues, but only a physical look confirms it

  ▹ Action: If the hive feels light at heft, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross — not by dose; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 78/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 92.4°F (33.6°C) today — just 0.1°F (0.05°C) below her all-time average of 92.5°F (33.6°C) — with a tight 2.2°F (1.2°C) daily swing and a robust ~42.1°F (~23.4°C) warm offset above the 50.3°F (10.2°C) outdoor reference, confirming solid active thermoregulation; all 10 sound bands remain 3.0–8.0 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline with a 14-day rising trend of +4.9 dBFS, the dominant energy concentrated in the 200–260 Hz colony-fundamental band at −25.5 dB average, and a continuing spectral shift toward lower frequencies consistent with increased fanning or colony activity. Humidity averaged 44.1% — on the drier side but explainable by dry October Los Alamos air through the screened floor — vibration kurtosis is 3.2 (textbook normal), and gas resistance at 56 kΩ sits just above her all-time average of 49 kΩ; watch whether the acoustic gain continues to build or plateaus over the next week, and heft for stores as the priority action.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The dominant sound-rhythm band shifted from 350–420 Hz to 100–150 Hz between the first and second half of the window — the low-band strengthening (100–260 Hz up +4.1–4.5 dB over 14 days) is consistent with increased fanning or colony metabolic activity rather than a queen-state change; vibration shows no strong per-band daily rhythm (max 1.0 dB) but 13 of 15 days show a clear 1.4× daily activity peak (baseline ~13.0 mG rising to ~18.3 mG), a healthy circadian foraging/ventilation signature; gas heater-scan shows only 2/10 bands cycling (dominant rhythm shifting from 200°C to 350°C step between halves) with low-temperature steps (100–200°C) rising +22–29% — a shift that co-varies with the humidity channel and likely reflects moisture-level changes in the hive air as ventilation patterns change, not a discrete VOC event.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.8

  The strong deseasonalized coupling of temperature and humidity (r=+0.80) in Hive #2 reflects active brood-area hygroregulation: as the cluster expands and contracts its heating footprint, absolute water content in the air rises and falls with metabolic load, producing a co-varying humidity signal — the classic physiology of a well-regulated brood nest described by Human et al. 2006, not a condensation concern.

  📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften, Eouzan et al. 2019, PLoS ONE, Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol.

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.6

  Unlike Iris (where temperature and gas resistance are inversely coupled, indicating a contracting brood mass), Hive #2 shows a positive deseasonalized r=+0.60 between temperature and gas resistance — meaning as the colony runs warmer it also produces more reducing volatiles (brood pheromones, propolis terpenes, honey metabolites), a signature of an actively expanding, productive brood nest rather than a contracting one; the colony-state PCA index falling over the window with gas, temperature, and humidity as dominant channels reflects the modest week-over-week acoustic gain rather than any concerning trend.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Bankova et al. 2000, Apidologie, Seeley 1985
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep configuration is the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves and 6 of the last 7 days had little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup placed over the cluster while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick when it stays colder
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 90/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 averaged 92.9°F (33.9°C) today — just 0.5°F (0.3°C) below her all-time average of 93.4°F (34.1°C) — with a remarkably tight 1.6°F (0.9°C) daily swing, a strong ~42.6°F (~23.7°C) warm offset above the 50.3°F (10.2°C) outdoor reference, and a sound spectrum classified STABLE: all 10 bands sit within 1.4 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline, with the dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band at −15.0 dB average — the most acoustically consistent and thermally regulated hive in the apiary. Humidity averaged 46.1%, on the drier side but within tolerance for dry October Los Alamos air; vibration kurtosis is 2.7 (normal), the 14-day acoustic trend is stable, and gas resistance at 479 kΩ sits just above her all-time average of 407 kΩ — consistent with the late-season reduction in brood-volatile load; heft for stores is the only action needed.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #1 shows the strongest daily sound rhythm in the 1500–3600 Hz band (12.7 dB daily swing) with 5 of 10 bands cycling — a clear circadian foraging pattern with acoustic energy building through the active period and falling at rest; vibration shows the strongest daily rhythm in 50–80 Hz (2.6 dB) with all 6 bands cycling, and the 14-of-15-day activity peak (baseline ~15.2 mG rising to ~24.0 mG, avg 1.6×) confirms a healthy diurnal schedule; gas heater-scan shows only 1/10 bands cycling (dominant band shifting from 200°C to 100°C between halves), with a modest +12–13% upward shift at 150–200°C steps — likely a small seasonal humidity-driven change in the low-temperature MOX response rather than a meaningful VOC event; the colony-state PCA index is rising over the window, consistent with a well-regulated, stable colony.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.91

  Hive #1's three-way deseasonalized coupling — temperature:humidity r=+0.91, temperature:gas r=+0.73, humidity:gas r=+0.65 — represents the tightest multi-channel integration in the apiary, consistent with a polyandrous colony maintaining precise distributed thermoregulation (Jones et al. 2004): higher thermal load drives higher absolute humidity and higher brood-pheromone volatile output in lock-step, a signature of a well-staffed, actively regulated brood nest with strong worker cohesion.

  📚 Reference: Jones, Myerscough, Graham & Oldroyd 2004, Science 305, Kleinhenz, Bujok, Fuchs & Tautz 2003, J. Exp. Biol. 206, Human et al. 2006

  sound_level vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.38

  The partial sound:temperature correlation (controlling for outdoor temp, r=+0.38) in Hive #1 reflects the well-documented relationship between brood-nest warmth and forager acoustic output: a warmer, more active cluster generates more sound energy, and the stability of both channels over 14 days confirms this colony is holding its setpoint without the progressive drift seen in Iris.

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie 48, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the best thermal profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder
• Hive #3 healthy Score: 75/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 93.2°F (34.0°C) today — 1.5°F (0.8°C) below her all-time average of 94.7°F (34.8°C) and solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a 2.0°F (1.1°C) daily swing and a strong ~43.0°F (~23.9°C) warm offset above the 50.3°F (10.2°C) outdoor reference, confirming brood damping is fully intact; the 14-day acoustic softening of −8.3 dBFS continues, with low bands (100–260 Hz) down 5.2–6.1 dB from their all-time baseline — now crossing the 5 dB 'SHIFTED' threshold — and the 14-day temperature drift of −3.1°F (−1.7°C) is the expected seasonal brood contraction rather than a loss of damping. Humidity averaged 39.2% (24h range 35.6–42.9%), persistently below the 40% lower watch boundary driven by dry October ambient through the screened floor — a passive note at current brood temperatures with no larval desiccation risk while the core holds 93–95°F (34–35°C); vibration kurtosis is 2.5 (normal), and Hive #3 continues to show the most energetic daily vibration peaks in the apiary (1.8× on 14 of 15 days, peaking at ~36.9 mG); heft for stores is the priority action given the highest metabolic activity level.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #3 shows the strongest daily sound rhythm in the 1500–3600 Hz band (15.2 dB swing) with all 10 bands cycling — a vigorous circadian activity pattern; however, the 260–350 Hz rhythm is weakening (4.5 dB → 1.4 dB between halves) and the 600–800 Hz rhythm is also weakening (4.0 dB → 1.3 dB), consistent with a gradual reduction in the colony-fundamental acoustic activity that mirrors the modest 14-day temperature cooling; the dominant vibration rhythm band shifted from 160–200 Hz to 50–80 Hz between halves — the earlier dominance of the fanning/ventilation band giving way to the metabolic-baseline band as October cools, a natural seasonal shift; gas heater-scan shows 9/10 bands cycling (strongest at 150°C, +24% swing) with a confirmed change-point step of +17,859 Ω in gas resistance around October 27, consistent with the modest brood contraction reducing volatile output — a seasonal VOC-load reduction, not an acute event.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.61

  The deseasonalized inverse coupling of humidity and gas resistance (r=−0.61) in Hive #3 reflects MOX sensor physics in a well-ventilated hive: higher humidity independently lowers the SnO2 plate resistance by blocking reaction sites, so as October air pushes humidity up through the screened floor the sensor reads lower resistance — a water-vapor confound confirmed by Burgues & Marco 2018, not a VOC-chemistry event; this is why the gas change-point on October 27 should be read alongside the ongoing low-humidity baseline rather than as an isolated signal.

  📚 Reference: Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors 18:339, Abidin et al. 2022, Sensors 22:3301, Human et al. 2006

  sound_level vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.78

  Hive #3's strong partial sound:temperature correlation (r=+0.78, controlling for outdoor temp) is the highest in the apiary and confirms that the 14-day acoustic softening is tightly coupled to the brood-temperature cooling drift — both channels declining together at the same rate is the autumn thermoregulation downshift described by Harrison et al. 2026, not two independent anomalies; the retained damping and warm offset classify this as a normal seasonal transition, not a population-loss event.

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie 48, Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169, Harrison et al. 2026, J. Exp. Biol.
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 39.2% (24h range 35.6–42.9%), persistently below the 40% lower watch boundary — driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; passive note at current brood temperatures, no larval desiccation risk while the brood core holds 93–95°F (34–35°C)

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest metabolic activity and vibration in the apiary means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — the highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: Keep an eye on the continued low-band acoustic softening (200–350 Hz now down 5.2–6.1 dB over 14 days, crossing the shifted threshold) — if it continues to fall over the next week alongside the temperature drift, a brief inspection to confirm brood coverage and queen status would be worthwhile