AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-29

As of October 29, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary has three colonies (Hive #1, Hive #2, Hive #3) holding solid brood temperatures with good acoustics, while Iris continues a now-twelve-day acoustic step-down and sustained cooling drift that together warrant an inspection this week. The previous report's 'critical' status is corrected downward: Iris retains a meaningful warm offset above the 47.9°F (8.8°C) outdoor reference (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons — the hub thermometer reads warmer due to PCB self-heating and is not used here), damping is intact, and no hive is tracking ambient. The most important action across the whole apiary this week is a routine heft of every hive — with 6 of the last 7 days offering little or no foraging weather, the season's income is effectively zero, and temperature, sound, and vibration cannot tell you what is capped in the cells.

Across all four hives the highly insulated Apimaye poly enclosures (wall R≈6.93) are visibly suppressing diurnal temperature amplitude — swings of 1.8–2.6°F (1.0–1.4°C) in the three healthy hives versus the larger 6.1°F (3.4°C) oscillation in Iris, consistent with Mitchell 2016's finding that insulated hive whole-conductance is ~2–2.6× lower than wooden boxes and that the resulting flat traces reflect the enclosure's thermal mass, not a silent or failing colony.

Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 all show tight diurnal swings of 1.8–2.6°F (1.0–1.4°C) with warm offsets of 43–45°F (24–25°C) above outdoor, confirming active brood-core thermoregulation across the apiary; Iris shows a larger 6.1°F (3.4°C) swing centered at a cooler 81.7°F (27.6°C) mean, retaining a ~33.8°F (~18.8°C) warm offset that confirms the cluster is still producing heat, but the persistent acoustic and thermal step-downs make her the one hive to watch.

• Iris warning Score: 42/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 81.7°F (27.6°C) today — 6.4°F (3.6°C) below her all-time average of 88.1°F (31.2°C) — while still holding a ~33.8°F (~18.8°C) warm offset above the 47.9°F (8.8°C) outdoor reference, meaning the cluster is producing heat and has not collapsed to ambient; the acoustic step-down confirmed around October 17 has now persisted twelve days with all 10 sound bands 8.2–12.7 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline, and the temperature step of −8.1°F (−4.5°C) confirmed around October 22 has not reversed — two independent sensor categories sustaining the same direction across nearly two weeks. Humidity at 59.6% average sits comfortably in the healthy 50–70% band; vibration kurtosis is 2.7 (no impact events), the vibration spectrum is exactly on its all-time baseline across all six bands, and gas resistance at 392 kΩ remains above her all-time average of 365 kΩ, consistent with reduced brood-volatile load from a contracting or broodless cluster. The most likely explanation — consistent with the stable vibration and the retained warm offset — is a natural brood-break or seasonal contraction (post-swarm requeening gap, supersedure, or dearth-driven laying pause), but because no inspection log exists to confirm this, an inspection this week to assess queen/brood status and heft for stores remains the right next step.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Iris shows a 6.1°F (3.4°C) daily temperature oscillation centered at 81.7°F (27.6°C), larger than the other three hives but still well-damped relative to the 22.8°F (12.7°C) outdoor swing; 14 of 15 days carry a clear 1.5× daily vibration peak, confirming a persistent activity rhythm. The 14-day acoustic trend has fallen −39.5 dBFS (from −11.9 to −51.4 dBFS), with a confirmed change-point step of −37.3 dBFS around October 17 — all 10 bands remain 8.2–12.7 dB below her own baseline, the largest deviation in the 420–500 Hz band at −12.7 dB; the per-band gas heater-scan shape shows a 24–25% rise at the low-temperature steps (100–200°C) relative to Iris's own recent history, which is consistent with reduced brood-pheromone throughput and a drier, less-active interior — the high-temperature steps (375–400°C) are comparatively stable, suggesting the shift is in mid-weight VOCs rather than a gross environmental event.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.4

  The partial correlation (r=+0.40, controlling for outdoor temperature) linking sound energy to in-hive temperature on Iris's deseasonalized residuals means that, independent of weather, quieter periods coincide with cooler periods — consistent with a contracting cluster heating a smaller brood footprint and generating less acoustic energy, the pattern described by Ramsey et al. 2020 for population decline and by Kanelis et al. 2023 for the step-change queenless acoustic signature; Minaud et al. 2024 note that sustained amplitude erosion combined with a cooling drift is the validated early-warning signal in dying colonies, though Iris's retained warm offset and intact vibration rhythm argue that the cluster is alive and present, making a brood-break or requeening gap the more parsimonious explanation at this stage.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Kanelis et al. 2023, Biology 12:1392, Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169:112961
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic step-down now 12 days: all 10 spectral bands 8.2–12.7 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline (max deviation 420–500 Hz at −12.7 dB), change-point confirmed ~October 17 — not explained by weather, season, or the other three hives

  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained brood-temperature cooling drift: 14-day fall from ~93.5°F (34.2°C) to 81.7°F (27.6°C) avg, step change of −8.1°F (−4.5°C) confirmed ~October 22; warm offset retained (~33.8°F / ~18.8°C above outdoor) but shrinking week-over-week

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7+ days; foraging effectively closed for 6 of the last 7 days, and telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in the cells

  ▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week to assess queen presence, brood pattern and coverage, and to heft for stores — two independent sensor categories (12-day acoustic step-down and 7-day cooling drift, both confirmed change-points) warrant a look; a brood-break or requeening gap is the most likely explanation if the cluster is present and the warm offset continues, but only a physical look can confirm it

  ▹ Action: If the hive feels light at heft, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross stores — not by dose; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 76/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 91.7°F (33.2°C) today — 0.6°F (0.3°C) below her all-time average of 92.3°F (33.5°C) and just under the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — with a tight 2.5°F (1.4°C) daily swing and a robust ~43.8°F (~24.3°C) warm offset above the 47.9°F (8.8°C) outdoor reference, confirming active thermoregulation; all 10 sound bands are 3.2–9.0 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline (14-day rising trend of +6.5 dBFS), with the dominant energy in the 200–260 Hz colony-fundamental band at −25.5 dB average and a spectral shift toward lower frequencies (100–260 Hz up +3.8–4.1 dB over the window) consistent with increased fanning or colony activity. Humidity at 42.6% average sits at the drier end of the healthy range, driven by dry October Los Alamos air through the screened floor, not a colony concern at current brood temperatures; vibration kurtosis is 3.0 (textbook normal) with a 1.4× daily activity peak on 12 of 15 days; gas resistance at 62 kΩ remains above her all-time average of 48 kΩ with a confirmed upward change-point step of +12.5 kΩ around October 24, suggesting a modest reduction in the VOC load consistent with the seasonal cooling of brood-pheromone output — watch whether the acoustic gain continues to build or plateaus over the next week.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #2 shows a 2.5°F (1.4°C) daily oscillation centered at 91.7°F (33.2°C), one of the tightest swings in the apiary and consistent with a well-insulated single-deep holding a compact, active cluster; the daily acoustic rhythm is strong across all 10 bands, with the dominant per-band rhythm shifting from 350–420 Hz in the first half of the window to 100–150 Hz in the second half — a gradual migration of the most rhythmic energy toward the lower colony-fundamental band, which may reflect the seasonal shift from summer foraging to autumn cluster consolidation. The gas heater-scan shows a 17–22% resistance rise at low-temperature steps (100–200°C) relative to Hive #2's own recent history, with the high-temperature steps (375–400°C) comparatively steady — this is consistent with the October 24 gas change-point and suggests a modest, sustained reduction in mid-weight VOC output (brood pheromones, propolis volatiles) tracking the seasonal brood contraction.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.56

  The deseasonalized residual correlation (r=+0.56, p=1.2e-58) between in-hive temperature and gas resistance on Hive #2 — where higher temperature coincides with higher resistance (lower VOC load) — is the opposite of the brood-pheromone loading direction one might expect at first glance, and is explained by the psychrometric and ventilation dynamics: as the cluster warms and fans more actively, it purges accumulated VOCs through the screened floor faster than they build up, transiently raising resistance; this is the same mechanism that produces the documented CO2 diurnal cycle (Seeley 1974; Bencsik et al. 2023) and is a sign of an actively thermoregulating colony, not a gas-sensor anomaly.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Stalidzans et al. 2017, Bosch Sensortec BME688 datasheet
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep configuration is the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves and 6 of the last 7 days had little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out; if frames feel heavy the bees will have stopped taking syrup, which is the natural confirmation; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) using 2:1 syrup placed over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick when it stays colder
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 91/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 averaged 92.1°F (33.4°C) today — just 1.1°F (0.6°C) below her all-time average of 93.2°F (34.0°C) — with a remarkably tight 1.8°F (1.0°C) daily swing, a strong ~44.2°F (~24.6°C) warm offset above the 47.9°F (8.8°C) outdoor reference, and a sound spectrum that is classified STABLE: all 10 bands sit within 0.8–1.9 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline, with dominant energy in the 200–260 Hz colony-fundamental band at −16.1 dB — the most acoustically consistent hive in the apiary. Humidity at 46.8% average is within tolerance for dry October Los Alamos air; vibration kurtosis is 2.9 (normal), the vibration spectrum matches its all-time average exactly across all six bands, and gas resistance at 480 kΩ remains above her all-time average of 405 kΩ, consistent with the late-season reduction in brood-volatile load; watch for stores as the foraging window is closed.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #1 shows a 1.8°F (1.0°C) daily oscillation centered at 92.1°F (33.4°C) — the tightest brood clamping in the apiary — with a clear 1.6× daily vibration peak on 14 of 15 days and 9 of 10 acoustic bands showing a consistent daily cycle; the dominant vibration rhythm shifted from 5–20 Hz in the first half of the window to 80–120 Hz in the second half, suggesting a seasonal transition from low-frequency structural settling (cooler nights) to mid-frequency colony activity (daytime warming) — a normal autumn pattern. The 14-day acoustic softening is only −1.5 dBFS (from −19.6 to −21.1 dBFS), well within seasonal noise, and eight bands are actually trending up slightly in the second half of each day; the gas heater-scan shape is stable with only the lowest-temperature steps (100°C) showing a 14% daily rhythm, indicating the colony's VOC environment is settled and consistent.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.91

  Hive #1's tri-variate deseasonalized coupling — temperature~humidity r=+0.91, temperature~gas r=+0.69, humidity~gas r=+0.62, all highly significant — reflects a tightly integrated brood-core microclimate: as the cluster warms, fanning increases absolute moisture slightly (evaporative load from brood and bee bodies) while simultaneously ventilating VOCs outward, producing the coherent three-way signature described by Ellis et al. 2008 for active brood-nest hygroregulation; this is the strongest multi-sensor coherence in the apiary and argues for a dense, well-regulated brood cluster at the sensor location.

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE / PMC6368279, Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol. 54:1516–1521, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the best thermal profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder
• Hive #3 healthy Score: 82/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 93.3°F (34.1°C) today — 1.2°F (0.7°C) below her all-time average of 94.5°F (34.7°C) and solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a 2.6°F (1.4°C) daily swing and a strong ~45.4°F (~25.2°C) warm offset above the 47.9°F (8.8°C) outdoor reference, confirming brood damping is fully intact; the 14-day acoustic trend has softened −5.1 dBFS with low bands (100–260 Hz) down 4.2–4.8 dB from baseline — still within the 5 dB threshold for a 'SHIFTED' flag, but worth watching — and the 14-day temperature drift of −2.6°F (−1.5°C) is the expected seasonal brood contraction, not a loss of damping. Humidity at 36.8% average (24h range 33.7–39.3%) sits below the 40–70% healthy band — driven by dry October ambient through the screened floor and the sensor placement in the upper box; vibration kurtosis is 2.7 (no impact events), and Hive #3 continues to show the most energetic daily vibration peaks in the apiary (1.9× on 14 of 15 days, peaking at 36.4 mG); gas resistance at 134 kΩ remains close to her all-time average of 103 kΩ, the characteristically lowest of the three healthy hives and consistent with her active metabolic baseline.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #3 shows a 2.6°F (1.4°C) daily oscillation with the strongest vibration peaks in the apiary and a 14.2 dB daily rhythm in the 1500–3600 Hz band that is actually strengthening (13.1→16.2 dB across the window) — a sign of increasing wingbeat activity relative to the colony baseline; the dominant vibration rhythm shifted from 160–200 Hz (fanning band) in the first half of the window to 50–80 Hz (metabolic baseline) in the second half, consistent with a seasonal reduction in intensive fanning as ambient temperatures fell and the cluster consolidated. The low-band acoustic drift (260–350 Hz down −7.7 dB, 200–260 Hz down −6.0 dB over 14 days) is the most notable spectral evolution in this hive — these are the colony-fundamental bands — and while still within seasonal-softening territory, a continued fall past 5 dB on those specific bands would warrant closer attention.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.78

  Hive #3's partial correlation (r=+0.78) between sound energy and in-hive temperature — controlling for outdoor temperature — is the strongest sound-temperature coupling in the apiary and is consistent with a dense, acoustically active brood cluster where heater-bee thermogenesis and forager/fanner activity are tightly co-regulated; Ramsey et al. 2020 and Meikle et al. 2017 document this coupling as a marker of a healthy colony with large brood mass, and Harrison et al. 2026 note that the autumn transition erodes this coupling as brood rearing winds down — so watching whether r degrades over the next few weeks is a useful single-number proxy for Hive #3's seasonal transition.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Harrison et al. 2026, J. Exp. Biol. 229:jeb252357, Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie 48:666–680
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 36.8% (24h range 33.7–39.3%), persistently below the 40% lower watch boundary — driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; passive note at current brood temperatures, no larval desiccation risk while the brood core is at 93–95°F (34–35°C)

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest metabolic activity and vibration in the apiary means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; 6 of the last 7 days offered little or no foraging weather

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — the highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross using 2:1 syrup while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C), then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: Note the low-band acoustic softening (260–350 Hz down −4.8 dB over 14 days) — still within normal seasonal range, but worth a mental note to see if it stabilises or continues falling over the next week