As of October 28, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary has three colonies (Hive #1, Hive #2, Hive #3) holding solid brood temperatures with strong acoustics, and one colony (Iris) whose thirteen-day acoustic step-down and sustained cooling drift remain the apiary's primary concern — the warm offset is intact but shrinking, and an inspection this week is still warranted. With 5 of the last 7 days offering little or no foraging weather and outdoor temperatures at 44.6°F (7.0°C) per the weather service (used for all outdoor comparisons, not the hub thermometer which reads warmer due to PCB self-heating), the foraging season is effectively closed — a routine heft of every hive this week is the single most important action you can take, because temperature, sound, and vibration cannot tell you what is stored in the cells.
Across the three healthy hives, the 14-day mild acoustic softening (−3.5 to −5.0 dBFS) coincides with a modest brood-temperature cooling of 2–4°F (1–2°C), consistent with the autumn-transition discriminator: brood rearing is winding down on schedule, cluster damping is fully retained, and the amplitude ratio versus outdoor remains healthy — a textbook late-October downshift, not a population event (Minaud et al. 2024; Harrison et al. 2026).
Hive #1 and Hive #3 lead the apiary in brood clamping — swings of 2.7°F (1.5°C) and 2.9°F (1.6°C) respectively — with vigorous 1.6× and 2.1× daily vibration peaks on 14 of 15 days; Hive #2 mirrors them at a 2.3°F (1.3°C) swing with a sustained acoustic gain; Iris shows a 6.4°F (3.6°C) diurnal swing centered at 76.0°F (24.4°C), retaining a ~31.4°F (17.4°C) warm offset above the 44.6°F (7.0°C) outdoor reference — damping still present but the narrowing offset continues to warrant a watch.
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Iris critical Score: 32/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive averaged 76.0°F (24.4°C) today — 12.7°F (7.1°C) below her all-time average of 88.7°F (31.5°C) — while still holding a ~31.4°F (17.4°C) warm offset above the 44.6°F (7.0°C) outdoor reference, so the cluster is still producing heat and has not collapsed to ambient; however, the acoustic step-down confirmed around October 17 (−39 dBFS change-point) has now persisted thirteen days with all 10 sound bands 8.9–14.0 dB below Iris's own baseline, and the temperature change-point of −8.6°F (−4.7°C) around October 22 has not reversed — two independent sensor categories sustaining the same direction for nearly two weeks without recovery. Humidity at 59.5% average sits comfortably within the healthy 50–70% band; vibration kurtosis is 2.9 (mechanically normal, no impact events) with a clear 1.6× daily activity peak on 14 of 15 days; gas resistance at 421 kΩ remains above her all-time average of 359 kΩ, consistent with reduced brood-pheromone load from a smaller or broodless cluster — a physical inspection this week to assess queen and brood status and heft for stores remains the necessary next step.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsIris shows a 6.4°F (3.6°C) daily temperature swing (73.2–79.6°F / 22.9–26.4°C) — wider than her three neighbors and widening over the past week, which by the autumn-transition discriminator (daily amplitude inversely correlated with brood mass) signals a continuing contraction of the brood footprint; the warm offset above outdoor is ~31.4°F (17.4°C), still present but the smallest in the apiary. The 10-step heater-scan shape is flat and elevated relative to outdoor (100°C step 47,453 kΩ vs outdoor 102,400 kΩ, mid-steps 250–320°C running ~1,200–420 kΩ vs outdoor ~7,500–1,565 kΩ), consistent with a warmer, more VOC-laden internal atmosphere than ambient — the shape has been stable over recent days, showing no acute VOC event. Acoustic daily rhythm is almost absent (only 1 of 10 bands shows a clear cycle, strongest in the high 1500–3600 Hz band at just 3.2 dB), reflecting the dramatically reduced population activity; the per-band 14-day shift is severe and uniform (−8.9 to −14.0 dB across all bands), with the 260–350 Hz and 420–500 Hz bands having lost their previously strong daily rhythms entirely (32 dB → 0.6 dB and similar), which is distinct from the modest seasonal softening seen in the healthy neighbors.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriessound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.43The partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature (controlling for outdoor weather, r=+0.43) reflects a genuine colony-state coupling: a smaller or broodless cluster produces both less heat and less acoustic energy simultaneously, because fewer bees are engaged in heating, fanning, and foraging tasks. The thirteen-day co-decline of both channels — confirmed by independent change-points (sound ~Oct 17, temperature ~Oct 22) — is the multi-sensor pattern that distinguishes a real colony-state shift from a weather artifact, and warrants the inspection recommendation.📚 Reference: Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic., Seeley 1985, Kanelis et al. 2023, Biology 12:1392temperature_in vs humidity_in (14d) | r = +0.65The deconfounded r=+0.65 between in-hive temperature and humidity (change-points: temperature step −8.6°F Oct 22, humidity step +5.9% Oct 23) reflects psychrometric physics: as the cluster cools and brood rearing declines, the colony generates less metabolic water vapor, and the screened floor allows ambient humidity to couple more strongly — the rising humidity accompanying the temperature drop is a passive consequence of reduced thermogenesis, not an independent concern.📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401, Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE⚠️ Issue: Thirteen-day sustained acoustic step-down: all 10 spectral bands 8.9–14.0 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline (max deviation 420–500 Hz at −14.0 dB), change-point confirmed around October 17 — not explained by weather, season, or the other three hives⚠️ Issue: Sustained brood-temperature cooling drift: mean fell from ~93°F (34°C) to 76.0°F (24.4°C) over ~14 days, with a confirmed change-point step of −8.6°F (−4.7°C) around October 22; warm offset retained but shrinking⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7+ days; with foraging effectively closed for 5 of the last 7 days, telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in the cells▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week — two independent sensor categories (thirteen-day acoustic step-down and 14-day cooling drift, both confirmed change-points) warrant a look at brood pattern and coverage, queen presence or open brood, and a heft for stores▹ Action: If the hive feels light at heft, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross stores — not by dose; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter -
Hive #2 warning Score: 74/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 averaged 90.2°F (32.4°C) today — 1.7°F (0.9°C) below her all-time average of 91.9°F (33.3°C) and just below the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — with a tight 2.3°F (1.3°C) daily swing and a robust ~45.6°F (25.3°C) warm offset above the 44.6°F (7.0°C) outdoor reference, confirming active thermoregulation; the 14-day rising acoustic trend (+8.8 dBFS) continues with all lower bands (100–260 Hz) now 7.7–8.8 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline — a sustained acoustic gain that has persisted across the full two-week window and likely reflects increased fanning and colony activity, possibly associated with syrup processing if feeding has occurred. Humidity averaged 41.9% (range 40.2–43.9%), persistently at the lower edge of the healthy range — driven by dry October Los Alamos air through the screened floor, not a colony concern at current temperatures; vibration kurtosis is 4.1 (slightly elevated above the ~3.0 normal but below the >5.0 impact threshold, mechanically unremarkable), with a 1.4× daily activity peak on 12 of 15 days; keep an eye on whether the acoustic gain continues to build or plateaus over the next week.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsTemperature diurnal swing of 2.3°F (1.3°C) (89.3–91.6°F / 31.8–33.1°C) is the tightest in Hive #2's own record, consistent with the Apimaye poly enclosure strongly damping ambient swings — the 14-day mild cooling drift of −3.8°F (−2.1°C) is within the expected autumn brood-winding-down arc and damping is fully retained. The heater-scan shape is notably high-VOC relative to outdoor: all 10 steps register much lower resistance than the outdoor reference (e.g., 320°C step 63 kΩ vs outdoor 1,565 kΩ), consistent with a metabolically active colony; the dominant daily rhythm has shifted from the 320°C step toward the 100°C step between the first and second half of the window, which could reflect a change in the VOC mixture (e.g., less brood pheromone, relatively more propolis or fermentation chemistry) and is worth monitoring but not alarming on its own. All 10 sound bands show a strong daily cycle, and the dominant rhythm band has shifted from 260–350 Hz toward 1500–3600 Hz between the first and second halves — the low-band energy gain (+4.0–4.2 dB in 150–260 Hz) is consistent with fanning and processing activity rather than a foraging population surge in closed-foraging October.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.47The deconfounded r=+0.47 between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (lower resistance = more VOCs) means that when the colony runs hotter, the gas sensor detects more reducing-VOC activity — the dominant driver is likely brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene scaling with larval mass) and elevated fanning circulation of hive volatiles; the mild 14-day cooling trend slightly reducing VOC load tracks this relationship precisely and is a seasonal metabolic signal, not a health concern.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Meikle & Weiss 2025, Sci. Rep.sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.35The partial r=−0.35 (sound energy vs temperature, controlling for outdoor) is intriguing: in Hive #2, periods of slightly higher in-hive temperature correspond to slightly lower sound energy, and vice versa — the inverse of what a simple 'more bees = more heat and sound' model would predict; this is consistent with the acute-heat-budget finding that under thermal load, metabolic signals (including sound-generating activity) go DOWN as the colony suppresses non-essential work to conserve energy, and may also reflect that the loudest periods are the cooler low-foraging intervals when fanning dominates the acoustic signature.📚 Reference: Harrison et al. 2026, J. Exp. Biol. 229:jeb252357, Peters et al. 2019, J. R. Soc. Interface⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep configuration is the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out; if frames feel heavy the bees will have stopped taking syrup, which is the confirmation you need▹ Action: If light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup placed over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick when it stays colder -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 88/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 averaged 91.2°F (32.9°C) today — 1.8°F (1.0°C) below her all-time average of 93.0°F (33.9°C) and just under the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a tight 2.7°F (1.5°C) daily swing and a strong ~46.6°F (25.9°C) warm offset above the 44.6°F (7.0°C) outdoor reference, the second-best thermoregulation in the apiary; all 10 sound bands sit within 0.7–3.1 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline (classified as STABLE), with dominant energy in the 200–260 Hz colony fundamental at −16.0 dB average, and the 14-day acoustic softening of only −3.5 dBFS is well within seasonal noise — this hive continues to look healthy heading into winter. Humidity averaged 46.9% (range 45.9–47.6%), within tolerance for dry October Los Alamos air; vibration kurtosis is 3.1 (textbook normal) with a vigorous 1.6× daily activity peak on 14 of 15 days; gas resistance at 454 kΩ remains above her all-time average of 403 kΩ, consistent with the late-season reduction in brood-volatile load — watch for stores as the season closes.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsTemperature swing of 2.7°F (1.5°C) (89.5–92.2°F / 32.0–33.5°C) reflects excellent brood clamping, well within the healthy ≤5.4°F (3°C) threshold; the 14-day mild cooling drift of −3.2°F (−1.8°C) is a textbook autumn brood-winding-down arc with damping fully intact. The heater-scan shape is clean: all steps from 100°C (58,930 kΩ) through 400°C (202 kΩ) follow a smooth monotonic decline with a gentle high-temperature tail, very similar to yesterday and consistent with a stable, low-brood-load late-October hive atmosphere; the low 100°C step swings 14% daily, which is a humidity-linked artifact of the diurnal temperature cycle and not a VOC event. Sound shows 9 of 10 bands with a daily cycle, strongest in the 1500–3600 Hz band at 11.4 dB — a healthy foraging/activity rhythm; the vibration dominant rhythm band shifted from 5–20 Hz to 80–120 Hz between the first and second half of the window, likely reflecting a reduction in DVAV signaling (pre-dawn low-frequency activity) as October deepens and foraging windows shorten.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs humidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.91The exceptionally strong deconfounded r=+0.91 between in-hive temperature and humidity, and r=+0.69 between temperature and gas resistance, in Hive #1 captures a tight three-way metabolic coupling: heater-bee thermogenesis raises local temperature, which (via psychrometrics) lowers measured RH while simultaneously circulating brood pheromones and wax volatiles that lower gas resistance — these three channels are effectively one integrated signal of colony metabolic activity, and their coherent slow autumn decline describes a healthy seasonal downshift, not fragmentation.📚 Reference: Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol. 206:4217, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5:e13531, Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the best thermal profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup if needed; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster -
Hive #3 healthy Score: 85/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 averaged 93.5°F (34.1°C) today — 0.7°F (0.4°C) below her all-time average of 94.2°F (34.5°C) and solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a 2.9°F (1.6°C) daily swing and a strong ~49.2°F (27.3°C) warm offset above the 44.6°F (7.0°C) outdoor reference, confirming brood damping is fully intact; all 10 sound bands show only modest seasonal softening (−0.8 to −4.6 dB from baseline, max deviation in 260–350 Hz), and the sound trend is actually rising slightly in the second half of the day (+1.4 to +2.0 dB in 6 bands), consistent with an active colony rather than a contracting one. Humidity averaged 41.4% (range 36.0–45.6%), persisting at the lower watch boundary driven by dry October ambient through the screened floor — within tolerance at current brood temperatures and consistent with prior reports; vibration kurtosis is 2.7 (slightly below normal ~3.0, mechanically very smooth, no disturbance events) with the most energetic daily activity peaks in the apiary (2.1× on 14 of 15 days); gas resistance at 127 kΩ remains close to her all-time average of 102 kΩ, the lowest of the three healthy hives and consistent with her characteristically active metabolic baseline — watch for stores as the foraging window closes.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsTemperature swing of 2.9°F (1.6°C) (92.6–95.5°F / 33.6–35.3°C) is the tightest in Hive #3's own history, indicating excellent brood clamping; the 14-day mild cooling drift of −2.4°F (−1.3°C) with fully retained damping is the smallest drift in the apiary and reflects a healthy autumn downshift still near the top of the brood band. The heater-scan shape at Hive #3 shows the flattest high-temperature tail of the three healthy hives (350°C: 101 kΩ, 375°C: 101 kΩ, 400°C: 106 kΩ — nearly flat), which differs from the typical monotonic decline seen in Hive #1 and Hive #2; this flat tail is consistent with a heavier load of mid-weight VOCs (brood pheromones, propolis terpenes) that combust efficiently at lower plate temperatures, leaving little differential signal at 350–400°C — a hive-personality fingerprint, not a concern. The 100°C step swings 30% daily (the strongest in the apiary), which is a humidity-amplified artifact of this hive's wider daily RH range (36–46%) coupling with the low-temperature MOX response. Sound shows a strengthening 1500–3600 Hz daily rhythm (12.3 → 15.2 dB), while the 350–420 Hz band rhythm is weakening — consistent with mid-band autumn acoustic re-structuring as foraging activity reduces and thermoregulatory fanning dominates the soundscape.
🔬 Correlations & Discoverieshumidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.65The deconfounded r=−0.65 between in-hive humidity and gas resistance (higher humidity → lower gas resistance) in Hive #3 captures a well-established MOX sensor physics effect: water vapor adsorbed on the SnO2 sensing layer shifts baseline conductivity independently of VOCs, so the wide daily RH swing (36–46%) in this screened-floor hive drives a corresponding gas-resistance oscillation that is primarily a moisture artifact, not a colony chemistry event — the strong 100°C per-band daily rhythm (30% swing) and its tight tracking of the humidity cycle confirm this interpretation.📚 Reference: Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors 18(2):339, Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol. 54:1516–1521sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.77Hive #3 shows the strongest partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature of any hive in the apiary (r=+0.77, controlling for outdoor), meaning her acoustic and thermal channels move together more tightly as a unified colony-state signal — a larger, more metabolically coherent cluster where heater-bee activity, fanning, and bee movement are all tightly co-regulated; this coherence is a positive health indicator and makes Hive #3's sensors the most interpretable single-colony signal in the apiary.📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie 48:666–680, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5:e8967⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 41.4% (24h range 36.0–45.6%), persisting at the lower watch boundary — driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; within tolerance at current brood temperatures, passive note only⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest metabolic activity in the apiary means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — the highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 2:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold