AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-27

As of October 27, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary has three colonies (Hive #1, Hive #2, Hive #3) holding solid brood temperatures with strong acoustics, and one colony (Iris) whose twelve-day acoustic step-down and sustained cooling drift now constitute a confirmed multi-sensor concern requiring a physical inspection this week. With 4 of the last 7 days offering little or no foraging weather and outdoor temperatures at 43.5°F (6.4°C), the foraging season is closed — a routine heft of every hive this week is the single most important action you can take, because temperature, sound, and vibration cannot tell you what is stored in the cells.

Across all four hives, the Apimaye R≈6.93 poly enclosures are demonstrating their designed function: Hive #1, #2, and #3 all show 24h brood swings of 2.7°F (1.5°C) or less against an outdoor swing of ~14.6°F (8.1°C), a damping ratio consistent with Mitchell (2016) whole-hive conductance models for high-R enclosures; Iris's wider 5.0°F (2.8°C) swing and cooler mean suggest a contracted or broodless cluster that is generating less heat, not an enclosure failure.

Hive #1 and Hive #3 show the tightest brood clamping (swings of 2.7°F/1.5°C and 2.4°F/1.3°C respectively) with strong repeatable vibration activity peaks on 13–14 of 15 days; Hive #2 maintains a 2.7°F (1.5°C) swing with a continued rising acoustic trend; Iris shows a 5.0°F (2.8°C) swing centered at 76.3°F (24.6°C) — a ~32.8°F (18.2°C) warm offset above the 43.5°F (6.4°C) outdoor reference (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons, not the hub thermometer), confirming cluster damping is still present but progressively weaker.

• Iris critical Score: 35/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 76.3°F (24.6°C) today — now 12.9°F (7.2°C) below her all-time average of 89.2°F (31.8°C) — while retaining a ~32.8°F (18.2°C) warm offset above the 43.5°F (6.4°C) outdoor reference, so the cluster is still producing heat and damping has not fully collapsed; however, the acoustic step-down that began around October 16 has now persisted twelve days with all 10 sound bands 10–16 dB below Iris's own baseline, and the temperature change-point of −8.5°F (−4.7°C) around October 22 has not reversed — two independent sensor categories sustaining the same direction for nearly two weeks without recovery. Humidity at 59.3% average is comfortably within the healthy 50–70% band; vibration kurtosis is 2.5 (mechanically quiet, no disturbance events) with a clear 1.5× daily activity peak on 14 of 15 days; gas resistance at 451 kΩ is above her all-time average of 354 kΩ, consistent with reduced metabolic throughput from a smaller or broodless cluster. A physical inspection this week to assess queen/brood status and heft for stores remains the necessary next step.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24h swing of 5.0°F (2.8°C) — up from 2.9°F (1.6°C) last report — reflects a widening oscillation consistent with a contracting or broodless cluster producing less heat, per the inverse brood-amplitude relationship (Meikle et al. 2017); damping is retained (in-hive low 73.4°F/23.0°C vs outdoor high 53.4°F/11.9°C, a clear warm offset) but the mean has drifted another degree cooler. The dominant acoustic rhythm has shifted from the 420–500 Hz band (which has weakened 43.6 dB over the window) to the 1500–3600 Hz band, and the per-band spectral analysis shows the 260–350 Hz and 350–420 Hz bands each fell ~23–24 dB across the two-week window — a sustained, structured collapse of the colony fundamental frequencies, not a weather or diurnal artifact. Vibration dominant frequency sits at 78 Hz with a normal 1.5× daily peak; the gas heater-scan curve is uniformly elevated (low-VOC, high-resistance) at all 10 plate temperatures relative to the outdoor reference, consistent with reduced hive metabolic output.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.43

  The partial correlation (r=+0.43, controlling for outdoor temperature) confirms that Iris's acoustic and thermal channels are declining together as a genuine hive-specific signal, not a weather artifact — both change-points (sound −39.7 dB around Oct 16, temperature −8.5°F/−4.7°C around Oct 22) are aligned directionally, consistent with a population reduction or brood-rearing cessation event. Per Kanelis et al. (2023), queenless colonies show a step-change in low-band acoustic energy within ~1–5 hours that persists for days; the 12-day persistence here, combined with the thermal drift, argues against a transient disturbance and toward a sustained colony-state change requiring physical confirmation.

  📚 Reference: Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169:112961, Kanelis et al. 2023, Biology 12:1392, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798

  gas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.96

  The near-unity partial correlation between gas resistance and in-hive temperature (r=−0.96, controlling for outdoor) means that as Iris's brood temperature has fallen ~13°F (7°C) over two weeks, her gas resistance has risen proportionally from ~354 kΩ baseline to ~451 kΩ — fewer bees, less metabolic VOC throughput, cleaner hive air; this is a thermodynamic signature of a shrinking or broodless cluster, consistent with colony CO2 scaling at ~8,700 ppm per kg of bees (Seeley 1974) and the autumn brood-rearing wind-down, not a VOC disease event.

  📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Seeley 1974, J. Insect Physiol., Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588
  ⚠️ Issue: Twelve-day sustained acoustic step-down: all 10 spectral bands 10–16 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline (max deviation 260–350 Hz at −15.4 dB), change-point confirmed around October 16 — not explained by weather, season, or the other three hives

  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained brood-temperature cooling drift: mean fell from ~93°F (34°C) to 76.3°F (24.6°C) over ~14 days (−16.9°F/−9.4°C), with a confirmed change-point step of −8.5°F (−4.7°C) around October 22; warm offset retained but shrinking

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7+ days; with foraging effectively closed for 4 of the last 7 days, telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in the cells

  ▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week — two independent sensor categories (twelve-day acoustic step-down and 14-day cooling drift, both confirmed change-points) warrant a look at brood pattern and coverage, queen presence or open brood, and a heft for stores

  ▹ Action: If the hive feels light at heft, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross stores — not by dose; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 76/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 90.5°F (32.5°C) today — 1.1°F (0.6°C) below her all-time average of 91.6°F (33.1°C) and just below the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band but holding steady — with a 2.7°F (1.5°C) daily swing and a strong ~47.1°F (26.1°C) warm offset above the 43.5°F (6.4°C) outdoor reference (weather service figures used), confirming robust thermoregulation; the 14-day rising acoustic trend (+10.2 dBFS) continues with all lower bands (100–350 Hz) now 7.9–9.4 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline, a sustained acoustic gain that has now persisted across the full two-week window. Humidity averaged 44.2% (range 42.0–47.6%), persistently at the lower end of healthy — driven by dry October air through the screened floor, not a colony concern at current temperatures; vibration kurtosis is 2.9, mechanically normal, with a 1.4× daily activity peak on 10 of 15 days; gas resistance at 66 kΩ is above her all-time average of 46 kΩ and the heater-scan curve shows a notably flat high-temperature tail (375°C and 400°C steps rising slightly), consistent with reduced brood-pheromone load as October brood rearing slows.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24h temperature swing of 2.7°F (1.5°C) is well-damped relative to the outdoor 14.6°F (8.1°C) swing; the 14-day mild cooling of −3.8°F (−2.1°C) is a normal October brood-rearing wind-down with damping fully retained — not a concern. The per-band spectral analysis shows the dominant acoustic rhythm shifting from 200–260 Hz toward 1500–3600 Hz in the second half of the window, while the 200–260 Hz, 260–350 Hz, and 350–420 Hz bands each gained ~4–5 dB over 14 days — a low-frequency energy build that aligns with increased colony communication or cluster consolidation activity heading into winter (Ramsey et al. 2020). Vibration dominant frequency is 52 Hz (colony metabolic baseline band); the gas heater-scan shows a modest 14% amplitude shift in the 100–150°C low-temperature steps, likely reflecting reduced nectar/brood-pheromone volatile load as October forage ends.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.49

  The deconfounded r=+0.49 between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (higher temp → higher resistance, i.e. lower VOC load) is the inverse of the expected brood-pheromone relationship — as the brood nest cools slightly toward a October plateau, brood-volatile output (E-β-ocimene and related larval signals) decreases proportionally, and the MOX sensor registers cleaner air; this is a healthy seasonal metabolic downshift, not a disease signal, and is consistent with CO2/VOC population-scaling (Seeley 1974).

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Seeley 1974, J. Insect Physiol. 20:2301, Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588

  sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.37

  The partial correlation of r=−0.37 (sound energy vs. temperature, controlling for outdoor) means that as the colony's temperature has dipped slightly, sound energy has actually risen — the opposite of a decline signature; this is consistent with increased colony communication and consolidation behaviour as the cluster contracts and prepares for winter, distinct from the co-directional temperature-and-sound decline seen in Iris.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol. 206:4217
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep capacity is the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out; if frames are full the bees will have stopped taking syrup, which is the confirmation you need

  ▹ Action: If light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup placed over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick when it stays colder
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 90/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 averaged 92.3°F (33.5°C) today — 0.5°F (0.3°C) below her all-time average of 92.8°F (33.8°C) and just inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — with a remarkable 2.7°F (1.5°C) daily swing and a ~48.8°F (27.1°C) warm offset above the 43.5°F (6.4°C) outdoor reference (weather service figures used), the tightest thermoregulation in the apiary; all 10 sound bands sit within 0.5–2.4 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline — classified as STABLE — with dominant energy in the 200–260 Hz colony fundamental at −16.0 dB, and the 14-day acoustic softening of only −2.8 dBFS is within seasonal noise. Humidity averaged 47.0% (range 45.6–48.3%), within tolerance for dry October Los Alamos air; vibration kurtosis is 3.1 (textbook normal) with a vigorous 1.5× daily activity peak on 13 of 15 days; gas resistance at 469 kΩ (vs. all-time avg 400 kΩ) is above baseline, consistent with late-season reduced brood-volatile load, and a gas change-point of +64 kΩ around October 16 tracks the same seasonal metabolic shift seen in the temperature data.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24h swing of 2.7°F (1.5°C) against an outdoor 14.6°F (8.1°C) swing represents the best amplitude-damping ratio in the apiary, and all 6 vibration bands show a daily cycle with a dominant rhythm in 120–160 Hz (2.5 dB) — the vibration dominant band has shifted from 5–20 Hz toward 160–200 Hz in the second half of the window, consistent with increased fanning/ventilation effort as October nights cool; the strongest acoustic daily rhythm sits in 1500–3600 Hz (11.4 dB), stable across both halves. The 14-day temperature cooling of −2.4°F (−1.3°C) is a textbook October brood-rearing glide with fully retained damping — the amplitude ratio to ambient is tightening, not loosening, which is the healthy direction.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature_in vs humidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.71

  Hive #1's three-way deconfounded coupling (TempIn~Humidity r=+0.91, TempIn~GasRes r=+0.71, Humidity~GasRes r=+0.64) is the strongest multivariate coherence in the apiary and reflects a tightly integrated brood-nest microclimate: as the colony holds its 34°C setpoint, it simultaneously manages moisture (psychrometric RH coupling) and VOC load (brood-pheromone scaling with brood mass), all three channels moving as a coordinated physiological unit — a hallmark of a well-populated, actively regulating colony.

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397, Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE PMC6368279, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the best thermal and acoustic profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores

  ▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup if needed; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster
• Hive #3 healthy Score: 84/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 93.5°F (34.2°C) today — 0.3°F (0.2°C) below her all-time average of 93.8°F (34.3°C) and solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a 2.4°F (1.3°C) daily swing and a ~49.7°F (27.6°C) warm offset above the 43.5°F (6.4°C) outdoor reference (weather service figures used), confirming brood damping is fully intact; all 10 sound bands are within 0.5–3.9 dB of Hive #3's own all-time baseline (classified as STABLE), with dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony fundamental at −13.4 dB and a 14-day mild softening of only −4.7 dBFS — seasonal noise, not a trend. Humidity averaged 41.8% (range 39.3–43.8%), persisting at the lower watch boundary driven by dry October air through the screened floor — this is within tolerance at current brood temperatures and is consistent with prior reports; vibration kurtosis is 2.8 with a vigorous 2.1× daily activity peak on 14 of 15 days, the most energetic vibration signature in the apiary.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24h swing of 2.4°F (1.3°C) is well-damped; the 14-day cooling of −2.1°F (−1.2°C) from 95.7°F (35.4°C) to 93.5°F (34.2°C) is a normal October brood-rearing glide with full damping retained. The strongest acoustic daily rhythm is in 1500–3600 Hz (12.9 dB, strengthening from 11.4 to 15.4 dB across the window), while the 260–350 Hz, 350–420 Hz, and 200–260 Hz bands each fell 5–6 dB over 14 days — a normal late-season spectral shift from active-flight harmonics toward thermoregulation signatures. Vibration dominant rhythm has shifted from 5–20 Hz to 50–80 Hz (colony metabolic baseline band), consistent with reduced foraging activity and increased cluster consolidation; the gas heater-scan shows a strong 19% daily rhythm at the 150°C step and 6/10 bands cycling, reflecting active brood-metabolic modulation.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  humidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.63

  The deconfounded r=−0.63 between in-hive humidity and gas resistance (higher RH → lower resistance, i.e. higher apparent VOC load) reflects the well-established water-vapor confounding of MOX sensors: when October fanning cycles humidify the hive air, adsorbed water partially blocks the SnO2 reaction sites and shifts resistance downward with no actual VOC chemistry change; accounting for this, Hive #3's gas readings are entirely explained by its moisture-ventilation cycle and require no further interpretation.

  📚 Reference: Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol. 54:1516, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors 18(2):339, Seeley 1974, J. Insect Physiol. 20:2301

  sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.76

  The strongest sound-temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r=+0.76, controlling for outdoor) means Hive #3's acoustic energy and brood temperature are rising and falling together as a tightly coupled unit — when the colony heats more brood, it is also noisier, a positive sign of an actively regulated, well-populated nest consistent with the inverse brood-amplitude estimator of Meikle et al. (2017).

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol. 206:4217, Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169:112961
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 41.8% (24h range 39.3–43.8%), persisting at the lower watch boundary — driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; within tolerance at current brood temperatures, passive note only

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest metabolic demand in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross

  ▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 2:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold