AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-26

As of October 26, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary has three colonies (Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3) holding strong brood temperatures with stable or rising acoustics heading into late October, and one colony (Iris) whose now-eleven-day acoustic step-down and 20-day cooling drift remain the single unresolved concern requiring a physical inspection this week. The foraging season is effectively closed with outdoor temperatures at 42.4°F (5.8°C) — a routine heft of every hive this week is the single most important action you can take, because temperature, sound, and vibration cannot tell you what is stored in the cells.

Across the three healthy hives, the partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature (controlling for outdoor temperature) is consistently positive, meaning each colony's acoustic output rises and falls with its own metabolic warmth independent of weather — a multi-hive confirmation of the brood-thermogenesis/acoustic-activity coupling described by Kleinhenz et al. 2003 and Ramsey et al. 2020. Iris diverges sharply from this pattern: her gas resistance rose by ~85 kΩ around October 22 (coinciding with her acoustic step-down on October 16 and temperature step-down on October 22), consistent with reduced metabolic throughput lowering the colony's VOC output — a multi-channel signal that does not yet resolve itself benignly.

Hive #1 and Hive #3 show the tightest brood clamping in the apiary (24h swings of 1.6°F/0.9°C and 2.4°F/1.3°C respectively) against an outdoor swing of ~10.9°F (6.1°C), with the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosures performing as expected; Hive #2 maintains a 2.7°F (1.5°C) swing with a steady upward acoustic trend, while Iris shows a 5.2°F (2.9°C) diurnal oscillation centered at 79.1°F (26.2°C) — a ~36.7°F (20.3°C) warm offset above the 42.4°F (5.8°C) outdoor temperature confirming cluster damping is still present, though the acoustic profile remains 13–18 dB below her own all-time baseline across all bands.

• Iris warning Score: 40/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 79.1°F (26.2°C) today — 10.5°F (5.8°C) below her all-time average of 89.6°F (32.0°C) — while still holding a ~36.7°F (20.3°C) warm offset above the 42.4°F (5.8°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons), confirming the cluster is producing heat and damping is present, though the 20-day cooling drift and now-eleven-day acoustic suppression (all 10 bands 11–18 dB below her own baseline) together constitute two independent sensor categories that have not resolved and warrant a physical inspection this week. Humidity at 59.2% average is comfortably within the healthy 50–70% band; vibration kurtosis is 2.7 with RMS 0.0163 g, mechanically quiet; gas resistance at 420 kΩ is above her all-time average of 350 kΩ, consistent with reduced metabolic throughput; the critical unknowns remain brood/queen status and stores, which only a physical visit can confirm.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Iris shows a 24h swing of 75.7–80.9°F (24.3–27.2°C), a 5.2°F (2.9°C) peak-to-trough span — still below the 5.4°F (3°C) well-clamped threshold, though wider than her healthy-hive neighbors; the outdoor swing was ~10.9°F (6.1°C), so her amplitude ratio remains favorable and damping is clearly retained. The long-term 14-day acoustic trend shows a −40.4 dBFS fall (from −11.0 to −51.4 dBFS) with a clear change-point around October 16, and the spectral shift away from lower frequencies (100–260 Hz down ~42 dB) is the dominant pattern; gas resistance rose ~85 kΩ around October 22 coinciding with the temperature step-down, consistent with reduced colony VOC output as metabolic activity declined — the heater-scan curve sits uniformly 3–4 orders of magnitude below the clean outdoor air, with a smooth monotonic rise from 400°C to 100°C steps and no anomalous shape change, suggesting a lower overall VOC load rather than a new chemistry. Vibration shows a 1.5× daily activity peak on 14 of 15 days (baseline ~16.3 mG to ~25.2 mG peaks), which is reassuring residual diurnal rhythm from the remaining population.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.39

  Even on deseasonalized residuals, Iris's sound energy tracks her in-hive temperature (partial r=+0.39 controlling for outdoor), meaning quieter periods correlate with cooler periods beyond what weather alone explains — a colony-level coupling consistent with a smaller or less active cluster generating less heat AND less sound simultaneously, as described in brood-thermogenesis/acoustic literature. The co-directional change-points (sound ~Oct 16, temperature ~Oct 22) suggest a sequential colony contraction: acoustic activity fell first, brood heating fell ~6 days later — a pattern more consistent with a gradual population or brood-rearing decline than with a sudden swarm event (which would produce simultaneous drops).

  📚 Reference: Kleinhenz, Bujok, Fuchs & Tautz 2003, J. Exp. Biol., Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic., Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep.

  gas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.94

  The very strong partial correlation between gas resistance and in-hive temperature (r=−0.94, controlling for outdoor) means that as Iris's core temperature fell, gas resistance rose — the colony is producing fewer reducing VOCs, consistent with reduced brood pheromone output (E-β-ocimene peaks in young larvae), less fanning, and reduced propolis/wax work as the colony contracts; this is the metabolic-throughput correlate of a smaller or broodless cluster, not an external VOC event, and the gas change-point (~Oct 22, +85 kΩ) aligns precisely with the temperature step-down.

  📚 Reference: Seeley 1974, J. Insect Physiol., Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors, Stalidzans et al. 2017
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic step-down now eleven days persistent (since ~October 16): all 10 spectral bands 11–18 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline, with the largest deviation in the 420–500 Hz band at −18.3 dB — not explained by weather or season, persisting while the other three hives show stable or rising acoustics

  ⚠️ Issue: 20-day brood-temperature cooling drift: mean fell from ~91°F (32.8°C) to 79.1°F (26.2°C), a −12°F (−6.7°C) decline over 14 days with a −7.7°F (−4.3°C) step-change around October 22; warm offset retained (~36.7°F/20.3°C above outdoor) but the mean is now 10.5°F (5.8°C) below her own all-time average

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7+ days; telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in cells

  ▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week — two independent sensor categories (eleven-day acoustic step-down and 20-day cooling drift) point the same direction; assess brood pattern and coverage, confirm whether a laying queen or open brood is visible, and heft to confirm stores

  ▹ Action: If the hive feels light at heft, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross stores — not by dose; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 78/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 91.4°F (33.0°C) today — 0.1°F (0.1°C) below her all-time average of 91.3°F (32.9°C) and just below the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band but holding steady — with an excellent 2.7°F (1.5°C) daily swing and a strong ~49°F (27.2°C) warm offset above the 42.4°F (5.8°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons), confirming robust thermoregulation; the 14-day rising acoustic trend (+10.7 dBFS) continues with all lower bands (100–350 Hz) now 5–9 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline, and the sound energy change-point around October 16 has continued to build. Humidity averaged 49.6% (range 47.6–50.9%), at the lower edge of healthy but within tolerance; vibration kurtosis is 2.9 with RMS 0.0130 g, mechanically normal; as always, heft Hive #2 this week because even this positive acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #2's 24h temperature swing is 89.9–92.6°F (32.2–33.7°C), a 2.7°F (1.5°C) peak-to-trough — well-clamped brood thermoregulation against a 10.9°F (6.1°C) outdoor swing; the hourly trend is remarkably flat through most of the day with a gentle rise in the latter hours, consistent with the single-deep Apimaye enclosure's strong insulation. The 14-day acoustic spectrogram shows a significant shift toward lower frequencies (+12.3 dB in 100–260 Hz over 14 days), with the dominant rhythm band shifting from 420–500 Hz to 1500–3600 Hz between window halves — the low-band acoustic rise is consistent with increased buzzing/fanning, likely driven by syrup or honey store processing. The gas heater-scan sits at 55–1,194 kΩ across the 10 steps (320°C ref 55 kΩ, near Hive #2's own all-time average of 45 kΩ), with a mild daily rhythm at higher plate temperatures; the PCA colony-state index is falling over the window, which in context of the other healthy channels reflects the expected seasonal brood contraction. Vibration shows no consistent daily rhythm (9 of 15 days with a peak, avg 1.3×), which is normal for a settled late-October colony in a single deep.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.52

  The genuine deconfounded correlation between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r=+0.52) in Hive #2 means that residual warmer periods coincide with higher gas resistance — the opposite of what a 'more bees = more VOCs' model would predict, and consistent instead with the psychrometric effect: at higher temperatures the same absolute moisture load reads as lower RH, and the MOX plate itself is more reactive at warmer plate temperatures, so the net effect is a complex coupling driven by the brood microclimate rather than a direct VOC signal. The partial correlation of sound energy with temperature (r=−0.37 controlling for outdoor) suggests that on warmer-than-expected days Hive #2 is slightly quieter, consistent with the heat-budget finding that acute heat suppresses metabolic sound output (Harrison et al. 2026).

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors, Seeley 1974, J. Insect Physiol.
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep capacity is the apiary's smallest reserve buffer; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out, and temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm what is capped; if frames are full the bees will have stopped taking syrup, which is the confirmation you need

  ▹ Action: If light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster when it stays colder
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 93/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 averaged 93.2°F (34.0°C) today — 0.6°F (0.3°C) above her all-time average of 92.6°F (33.7°C) and squarely inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — with a remarkable 1.6°F (0.9°C) daily swing and a ~50.8°F (28.3°C) warm offset above the 42.4°F (5.8°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons), the tightest brood clamping in the apiary. All 10 sound bands sit within ±1.8 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline — classified as STABLE — with dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony fundamental at −15.7 dB, and the 14-day acoustic trend is only marginally softer (−2.0 dBFS), well within seasonal noise; humidity averaged 49.0% (range 47.6–50.0%), within tolerance for arid Los Alamos October air; vibration kurtosis is 2.9 with a clear 1.5× daily activity peak on 12 of 15 days — the textbook signature of a well-populated, actively regulating colony heading into winter. Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — even this strong profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #1's 24h temperature arc of 92.0–93.6°F (33.4–34.2°C) gives a peak-to-trough swing of just 1.6°F (0.9°C) against a 10.9°F (6.1°C) outdoor swing — the strongest brood-clamping ratio in the apiary, a direct index of high brood mass and a well-functioning heating population (Kleinhenz et al. 2003). The 1500–3600 Hz band shows a strengthening daily rhythm (9.1 → 12.3 dB amplitude), reflecting increasingly structured foraging/activity cycles; sound is stable across all bands with no spectral shift, and the 420–500 Hz and 500–600 Hz bands ticked up +1.2 dB in the second half of the day — normal circadian foraging rhythm. The gas heater-scan (320°C ref 447 kΩ, above all-time average of 397 kΩ) shows a gas change-point of +70 kΩ around October 15, consistent with reduced brood pheromone and fanning VOC output as the season winds down — corroborated by the genuine humidity–gas–temperature coupling (r=+0.91/+0.73/+0.67) that reflects active brood microclimate regulation. Vibration dominant band at 80–120 Hz with a shift in the dominant rhythm from 120–160 Hz to 5–20 Hz between window halves is consistent with the colony transitioning from active fanning toward lower-frequency cluster movement.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature_in vs humidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.73

  Hive #1 shows the strongest three-way deconfounded coupling in the apiary: temperature↔humidity (r=+0.91), temperature↔gas resistance (r=+0.73), and humidity↔gas resistance (r=+0.67) — all genuine residual-space relationships, not diurnal artifacts. This tight triplet reflects a well-integrated brood microclimate: heater bees warm the core, which raises absolute moisture content (and thus RH at fixed water vapor), while the same metabolic activity produces the reducing VOCs that lower gas resistance; when the cluster tightens or heater activity dips, all three channels move together. The strength of this coupling (highest r values in the apiary) is a marker of a populous, well-regulated colony with active brood — consistent with Hive #1's textbook thermal amplitude.

  📚 Reference: Kleinhenz, Bujok, Fuchs & Tautz 2003, J. Exp. Biol., Eouzan et al. 2019, PLoS ONE, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the best thermal and acoustic profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores

  ▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup if needed; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster
• Hive #3 healthy Score: 85/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 94.0°F (34.4°C) today — 0.4°F (0.2°C) above her all-time average of 93.6°F (34.2°C) and solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a 2.4°F (1.3°C) daily swing and a strong ~51.6°F (28.7°C) warm offset above the 42.4°F (5.8°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons), confirming brood damping is fully intact; all 10 sound bands remain within ±3.1 dB of Hive #3's own all-time baseline (classified as STABLE), with dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony fundamental at −12.0 dB and a 14-day mild falling trend of only −1.7 dBFS — seasonal noise, not a trend. Humidity averaged 42.7% (range 37.8–47.2%) — persisting at the lower watch boundary driven by dry October Los Alamos air through the screened floor, within tolerance at current brood temperatures; vibration kurtosis is 3.0 with a vigorous 2.0× daily activity peak on 13 of 15 days — the most energetic vibration signature in the apiary; heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others — highest metabolic demand means the fastest potential burn rate.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #3's 24h temperature arc of 92.9–95.3°F (33.9–35.2°C) gives a 2.4°F (1.3°C) peak-to-trough swing — well-clamped against the 10.9°F (6.1°C) outdoor swing, and the hourly trend shows the characteristic mid-period warmth followed by a slight late dip, consistent with heater-bee activity cycling. The 1500–3600 Hz band shows the strongest daily rhythm in the apiary (amplitude strengthening from 10.2 dB to 15.7 dB), reflecting very active foraging/colony cycles; the 260–350 Hz fundamental dropped −4.8 dB from its own baseline over the window, and the 200–260 Hz band dropped −3.1 dB — both within ±3.1 dB and consistent with the seasonal post-flow acoustic softening seen across the apiary. Vibration dominant band at 80–120 Hz with a rhythm shifting from 5–20 Hz to 50–80 Hz between window halves likely reflects transition from DVAV signaling toward ventilation fanning; the 20–50 Hz band at −8.7 dB (near all-time avg −8.8 dB) confirms no structural disturbance events. The gas heater-scan (320°C ref 102 kΩ, near all-time average of 100 kΩ) is Hive #3's own normal baseline, with the genuine humidity↔gas resistance coupling (r=−0.59) reflecting the well-documented inverse: when fanning raises RH, the MOX sees more water vapor and registers higher resistance (lower apparent VOC load), a clean physical signal of thermoregulatory fanning activity (Ellis et al. 2008).

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.69

  Hive #3 shows the strongest sound-temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r=+0.69 controlling for outdoor temperature), meaning her acoustic output tracks her own brood warmth as a genuine colony-physiology signal independent of weather — consistent with a well-populated colony where heater-bee thermogenesis and worker acoustic activity are tightly coupled, as described by Kleinhenz et al. 2003 and Ramsey et al. 2020. This is the highest such coupling coefficient across all four hives, and combined with her vigorous 2.0× daily vibration peaks on 13 of 15 days, points to the most metabolically active colony in the apiary heading into winter.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Kleinhenz, Bujok, Fuchs & Tautz 2003, J. Exp. Biol., Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors

  humidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.59

  The inverse humidity–gas resistance coupling (r=−0.59) in Hive #3 is a clean fanning signature: when bees fan to manage moisture, rising RH causes water vapor to adsorb onto the MOX sensing plate and increase its resistance (lower apparent reducing-gas load), so high RH and high gas resistance track together as a physical chemistry artifact — not a colony health signal. This coupling is weaker or absent in the other hives, suggesting Hive #3's screened-floor position in box 2 (upper box) makes her sensor more sensitive to fanning-driven humidity swings than her neighbors' bottom-box sensors (Ellis et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Ellis, Nicolson, Crewe & Dietemann 2010, Naturwissenschaften, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors, Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 42.7% (24h range 37.8–47.2%), persisting at the lower watch boundary — driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; not a colony concern at current brood temperatures, but worth a passive note

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest metabolic demand in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross

  ▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 2:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold