AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-25

As of October 25, 2026, your Los Alamos apiary has three colonies (Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3) holding textbook brood temperatures with strong or rising acoustic signatures, and one colony (Iris) whose now-ten-day acoustic step-down and 15-day cooling drift continue as the single concern requiring a physical inspection this week. The foraging season is effectively closed with outdoor temperatures at 46.7°F (8.1°C) — a routine heft of every hive this week is the most important action you can take, because temperature, sound, and vibration cannot tell you what is stored in the cells.

Across the three healthy hives, the strong positive coupling between in-hive temperature and humidity (r=+0.57 to +0.92 deseasonalized) reflects the well-established brood-nest psychrometric relationship: as heater-bee thermogenesis raises the core, the same absolute water content registers as a lower RH% — a physical identity, not a ventilation fault (Human et al. 2006; Ellis et al. 2010). Iris's inverse pattern — falling temperature paired with rising gas resistance — is the mirror image: less metabolic heat means less VOC throughput, consistent with a contracting brood zone or reduced colony activity (Stalidzans et al. 2017).

Hive #1 and Hive #3 show the tightest brood clamping (24h swings of 1.9°F/1.1°C and 1.6°F/0.9°C respectively) against an outdoor swing of ~5.6°F (3.1°C), confirming the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosures are performing well; Hive #2 maintains a 3.1°F (1.7°C) swing with the colony-state PCA rising, while Iris continues a slow 4.6°F (2.6°C) diurnal oscillation centered at 75.7°F (24.3°C) — a warm offset of ~29°F (16°C) above the 46.7°F (8.1°C) outdoor temperature confirming damping is still present, but 14.2°F (7.9°C) below her own all-time average with acoustics suppressed 13–21 dB across all bands.

• Iris warning Score: 42/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive averaged 75.7°F (24.3°C) today — 14.2°F (7.9°C) below her all-time average of 89.9°F (32.2°C) — while still holding a ~29°F (16°C) warm offset above the 46.7°F (8.1°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons), meaning cluster damping remains present but continues its 15-day erosion; all 10 sound bands remain 13–21 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline for a tenth consecutive day, and with no inspection or voice logs recorded this week the combination of a sustained acoustic step-down and a cooling drift that no single benign explanation resolves still warrants a physical inspection this week to assess brood pattern, queen status, and stores. Humidity at 57.1% average is comfortably within the healthy 50–70% band; vibration kurtosis is 2.7 with RMS 0.0169 g — mechanically unremarkable — and gas resistance at 450 kΩ remains above Iris's all-time average of 347 kΩ, consistent with reduced colony metabolic throughput rather than a VOC event; the critical unknown remains stores, which only a heft can confirm.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Iris's 24h temperature arc of 73.6–78.2°F (23.1–25.7°C) — a swing of 4.6°F (2.6°C) — remains well below the 5.4°F (3°C) brood-clamping threshold; the daily oscillation has a moderate 6.4°F (3.5°C) average rhythm over the medium term, slightly wider than the other three hives but still clearly damped against the outdoor swing, so the enclosure is still buffering; the per-band spectral rhythm has shifted its dominant rhythm band from 150–200 Hz to 1500–3600 Hz between the first and second halves of the window, with the 420–500 Hz and 260–350 Hz bands down 34 and 33 dB from the window peak — the broadband energy collapse is across all biologically significant bands and is not a single-band artefact; the gas heater-scan shows a modest 100°C step rise (+21%) with the low-temperature steps tracking humidity rather than chemistry, consistent with reduced fanning and lower metabolic VOC output as the cluster contracts.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.92

  The very strong partial correlation between falling brood temperature and rising gas resistance (r=−0.92, controlling for outdoor weather) reflects the known inverse between colony metabolic activity and VOC throughput: as the cluster contracts and heater-bee thermogenesis decreases, fewer reducing gases are produced and circulated, so MOX resistance rises — this is a metabolic-activity correlate, not a ventilation or disease signal, and corroborates the picture of a colony that is heating less, not one under chemical stress.

  📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Seeley 1974, Southwick 1983

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.34

  The positive partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature (r=+0.34) — with the acoustic change-point landing ~October 16 and the temperature change-point ~October 22 — means acoustics moved first: the sound step-down preceded and predicted the thermal step-down by roughly six days, consistent with a contracting brood population reducing both heat generation and colony hum in sequence, as documented in large-fleet thermal-amplitude mortality studies (Minaud et al. 2024).

  📚 Reference: Minaud et al. 2024, Kanelis et al. 2023, Ramsey et al. 2020
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic step-down now ten days persistent (since ~October 16): all 10 spectral bands 13–21 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline — max deviation in the 420–500 Hz band at −20.6 dB — not explained by weather or season, persisting while the other three hives show stable or rising acoustics

  ⚠️ Issue: 15-day brood-temperature cooling drift: mean fell from ~92°F (33.3°C) to 75.7°F (24.3°C), a −16.3°F (−9.1°C) decline with a −7.6°F acceleration change-point around October 22; warm offset retained (~29°F/16°C above outdoor) but damping continues to erode

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: no inspection or voice log in 7 days; telemetry cannot confirm what is capped in cells

  ▹ Action: Inspect Iris this week — two independent sensor categories (ten-day acoustic step-down and 15-day cooling drift) continue to point the same direction; assess brood pattern and coverage, confirm whether a laying queen or open brood is visible, and heft to confirm stores

  ▹ Action: If the hive feels light at heft, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross stores — not by dose; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) use 2:1 syrup placed directly over the cluster, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars when it stays colder

  ▹ Action: If no brood and no queen are found, treat this as a priority requeening or colony-combination decision before the population falls further heading into winter
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 80/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 averaged 92.2°F (33.4°C) today — 1.1°F (0.6°C) above her all-time average of 91.1°F (32.8°C) and approaching the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — with an excellent 3.1°F (1.7°C) daily swing and a strong ~45.5°F (25.3°C) warm offset above the 46.7°F (8.1°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons); the 14-day rising acoustic trend continues with all 10 bands now 1–10 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline, and the colony-state PCA principal mode is the only one in the apiary that is rising over the window — a good sign. Humidity averaged 50.2% (range 48.8–51.5%), comfortably within the healthy band; vibration kurtosis is 3.2 with RMS 0.0130 g — normal and mechanically quiet; heft Hive #2 this week, because even the single-deep format's smallest reserve buffer in the apiary cannot be confirmed by telemetry.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #2 shows a tight 3.1°F (1.7°C) daily arc (90.4–93.5°F / 32.4–34.1°C) with 10/10 sound bands showing a healthy daily rhythm; the dominant rhythm band shifted from 420–500 Hz to 1500–3600 Hz between the first and second halves, with the 1500–3600 Hz rhythm strengthening from 1.1 to 5.0 dB — consistent with active syrup processing fanning as the colony works the feeder; the gas heater-scan low-temperature steps (100–200°C) are up 12–18% from baseline, a pattern that co-varies with humidity and likely reflects syrup-processing moisture rather than a distinct VOC chemistry shift; vibration shows no strong per-band daily rhythm, holding a steady 13.4 mG baseline.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.71

  The strong deseasonalized temperature–humidity coupling (r=+0.71) is the brood-nest psychrometric identity in action: heater-bee thermogenesis raises absolute vapour pressure, and the same water mass reads as lower RH% at higher temperatures, so temperature and humidity move together as a physical pair — this is active hygroregulation, not a sensor anomaly, and the flat RH trace (48.8–51.5%) against a swinging outdoor RH (likely 70–84%) confirms the Apimaye enclosure is doing its job (Eouzan et al. 2019).

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Ellis et al. 2010, Eouzan et al. 2019

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.35

  The modest negative partial correlation between sound energy and temperature (r=−0.35, controlling for outdoor) reflects a colony processing syrup: active fanning for syrup dehydration drives the 100–260 Hz bands up while keeping the thermal core stable or slightly suppressed through evaporative cooling — an expected, benign signature of a fed colony, not a thermoregulatory concern (Harrison et al. 2026, Meikle et al. 2017).

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Harrison et al. 2026
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: single-deep volume is the apiary's smallest reserve buffer; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out, and temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm what is capped; if frames are full the bees will have stopped taking syrup, which is the confirmation you need

  ▹ Action: If light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross; while daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup, then switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster when it stays colder
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 93/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 is the standout colony in the apiary: averaging 94.0°F (34.5°C) today — 1.7°F (0.9°C) above her all-time average of 92.3°F (33.5°C) and squarely inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — with a remarkable 1.9°F (1.1°C) daily swing and a ~47.3°F (26.3°C) warm offset above the 46.7°F (8.1°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons); all 10 sound bands sit within ±1 dB of Hive #1's own all-time baseline with dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony fundamental at −14.2 dB, and the 14-day acoustic trend is stable — the textbook signature of a well-populated, actively regulating colony. Humidity averaged 48.5% (range 47.3–49.8%) — dry side of healthy, consistent with arid Los Alamos October air through the screened floor, well within tolerance; vibration kurtosis is 2.7 with RMS 0.0158 g and a 1.5× daily activity peak on 11 of 15 days; as always, heft Hive #1 this week because even this strong thermal and acoustic profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #1's 24h arc of 93.2–95.1°F (34.0–35.1°C) — a swing of only 1.9°F (1.1°C) — is the tightest brood clamping in the apiary, with 10/10 sound bands showing a strong daily rhythm and the 1500–3600 Hz rhythm strengthening from 6.0 to 12.4 dB between the first and second half of the window; the second-half sound trend shows a uniform 2–3.5 dB decline across all bands — this is a normal diurnal down-cycle as flight activity winds down, not a signal shift; gas heater-scan shows a +14–16% rhythm in the 100–200°C low-temperature steps, which co-varies with humidity cycling and is a moisture-physics artefact of the screened floor ventilation, not a distinct VOC event; the vibration dominant rhythm band shifted from 5–20 Hz to 80–120 Hz between halves, consistent with the DVAV circadian pattern cycling through its normal overnight rate peak (Fletcher 1975; Ramsey et al. 2018).

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.92

  Hive #1's triple deseasonalized coupling (TempIn–Humidity r=+0.92, TempIn–GasResistance r=+0.73, Humidity–GasResistance r=+0.66) forms a coherent brood-nest metabolic triangle: rising thermogenesis drives up absolute moisture (RH tracks temperature), while simultaneously increasing brood pheromone and VOC throughput which lowers gas resistance; all three move as a single physiological unit, the most integrated colony-state signal in the apiary and a mark of a healthy, well-regulated brood nest (Seeley 1974; Human et al. 2006).

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Ellis et al. 2010, Seeley 1974

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.34

  The positive partial sound–temperature correlation (r=+0.34) reflects the known relationship between brood mass and acoustic power: more heater-bee activity to maintain the 93–97°F (34–36°C) setpoint also generates more mechanical vibration and sound, so the two channels rise and fall together as brood coverage expands or contracts — a healthy coupling that confirms the sensor is reading genuine brood-core physiology (Kleinhenz et al. 2003; Meikle et al. 2017).

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Kleinhenz et al. 2003
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: strong acoustic and thermal profile cannot confirm what is capped in cells — only a heft can

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the best thermal and acoustic profile in the apiary does not guarantee adequate winter reserves, and temperature cannot see stores

  ▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster
• Hive #3 healthy Score: 82/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 averaged 93.9°F (34.4°C) today — 0.4°F (0.2°C) above her all-time average of 93.5°F (34.2°C) and solidly inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — with a 1.6°F (0.9°C) daily swing and a strong ~47.2°F (26.2°C) warm offset above the 46.7°F (8.1°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all comparisons), confirming brood damping is fully intact; the 14-day mild acoustic falling trend (−3.2 dBFS overall) reflects per-band deltas of at most −3.0 dB from baseline — well within ±3 dB and consistent with the colony finishing its syrup-processing fanning surge from earlier in the window. Humidity averaged 42.4% (range 39.7–47.0%) — at the lower watch boundary, a weather-physics pattern driven by dry Los Alamos autumn air through the screened floor that has persisted for over a week without colony consequence; vibration kurtosis 2.8 with RMS 0.0205 g and a vigorous 2.0× daily activity peak on 12 of 15 days; heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others — highest metabolic demand means the fastest potential burn rate.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #3's 24h arc of 93.0–94.6°F (33.9–34.8°C) — a swing of 1.6°F (0.9°C) — is among the tightest in the apiary; 10/10 sound bands show a clear daily rhythm with the 1500–3600 Hz rhythm strengthening from 7.3 to 15.8 dB and the 800–1500 Hz rhythm from 2.5 to 6.5 dB — the upper-band rhythm intensification is consistent with a colony ramping up high-frequency wing activity during the active period; per-band deltas show the largest declines in the 260–350 Hz (−3.0 dB) and 200–260 Hz (−2.9 dB) bands relative to baseline, which aligns with a mild post-syrup-processing quiet-down rather than a population loss; the humidity–gas resistance deseasonalized correlation (r=−0.45) reflects the known inverse: when in-hive humidity dips (dry outdoor air ventilating through the screened floor), MOX resistance rises slightly as fewer water molecules compete for sensing sites — a sensor-physics artefact of open ventilation, not a VOC event.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.67

  Hive #3's strong positive partial sound–temperature correlation (r=+0.67, controlling for outdoor) — the highest in the apiary — indicates that acoustic power and brood thermogenesis are tightly coupled: this colony's sound output is largely driven by metabolic brood-heating activity rather than by foraging or external weather, consistent with a well-populated colony whose heater-bee and flight-muscle activity co-vary as a single physiological signal (Kleinhenz et al. 2003; Stabentheiner et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, Kleinhenz et al. 2003

  humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.45

  The negative deseasonalized humidity–gas resistance coupling (r=−0.45) is the expected MOX sensor-physics response to ventilation-driven humidity cycling: when dry outdoor air flushes through the screened floor and lowers in-hive RH, fewer water molecules compete for SnO2 reaction sites and resistance rises; when humidity rises (e.g. bees fanning syrup), resistance falls — this is a moisture artefact of open ventilation, not a distinct volatile chemistry event, and requires no action (Burgues & Marco 2018; Human et al. 2006).

  📚 Reference: Burgues & Marco 2018, Human et al. 2006, Ellis et al. 2010
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 42.4% (24h range 39.7–47.0%), persisting at the lower watch boundary — driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; not a colony concern at current brood temperatures, but worth a passive eye on

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed: highest metabolic demand in the apiary; telemetry cannot confirm reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first or alongside the others this week — highest activity level means the fastest potential burn rate if stores are short; if light, feed by weight toward at least 40–50 lb gross

  ▹ Action: While daytime highs stay above 50°F (10°C) continue 2:1 syrup; when it stays colder switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 2:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold