AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-23

As of October 23, 2026, three of your four hives — Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 — are holding active brood temperatures with strong or rising acoustic signatures consistent with ongoing syrup processing; your Iris hive remains the one hive to watch, now seven days into a sustained acoustic step-down that has no thermal explanation and warrants a look at brood pattern and queen status this week. The foraging season is closed at Los Alamos and stores cannot be confirmed by telemetry — a routine heft of every hive this week is the single most important action you can take, stated calmly as October housekeeping, because a colony can read thermally steady right up until its fuel runs out.

Across all three acoustically active hives (Hive #1, Hive #2, Hive #3), the 14-day warming drift in brood temperature (+4–8°F / +2–5°C) is advancing in lockstep with rising broadband acoustic energy and increasing lower-frequency dominance — a multi-hive convergence consistent with syrup-processing fanning loads described by Ramsey et al. 2020 and the CO2/metabolic scaling reported in Bencsik et al. 2023, where colony metabolic output scales with both population and substrate throughput.

Hive #1, Hive #2, and Hive #3 each show 24-hour temperature swings of 0.8–4.4°F (0.4–2.5°C) against an outdoor swing of ~16°F (9°C), confirming the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosures are strongly buffering the brood cores; outdoor humidity ranged 55–79% and the screened floors are continuing to pull in-hive humidity toward the drier end of the healthy band, most pronounced in Hive #3 where the 24-hour average dropped to 40.6% — at the lower watch boundary.

• Iris warning Score: 60/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive is averaging 88.5°F (31.4°C) today — down from 92.2°F (33.5°C) yesterday — with a 24-hour swing of 10.3°F (5.8°C) driven by a steady 7.4°F (4.1°C) fall over the last 12 hours; this cooling is now the dominant new signal and, combined with the acoustic step-down that began around October 16 (now seven days persistent, all 10 bands sitting 17–26 dB below Iris's own baseline), is worth a look at brood pattern and queen status this week. Humidity held a flat 53.0% average (range 52.2–53.6%), vibration kurtosis is 3.2 and RMS 0.0167 g — mechanically normal — and your logs confirm continued daily 1-gallon 1:1 feeder top-ups (~17 lb sugar since October 5), which remain the main carbohydrate input; temperature cannot confirm stores, so heft Iris this week.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Today's 24-hour arc of 82.1–92.4°F (27.8–33.6°C) represents a swing of 10.3°F (5.8°C) — roughly double yesterday's 2.7°F (1.5°C) and meaningfully wider than the 5.4°F (3°C) healthy-brood threshold — while the outdoor high reached only 65.8°F (18.8°C), so the hive's daily amplitude is now tracking toward ambient rather than clamping the brood core; this widening amplitude, sustained alongside the seven-day acoustic floor, is the autumn-transition discriminator to watch: retained damping (amplitude well below ambient) is the healthy sign, and right now the gap is narrowing. Gas resistance averaged ~410 kΩ at the 320°C reference step, well above Iris's all-time average of ~348 kΩ, and the 10-step heater-scan curve is uniformly elevated across all plate temperatures (100°C: 47 MΩ down to 400°C: 211 kΩ) — a shape suggesting lower overall VOC load relative to the syrup-processing activity seen in Hive #2 and Hive #3, consistent with reduced fanning/metabolic output; the daily rhythm in the 1500–3600 Hz sound band (5.1 dB) was Iris's strongest cycle, and the shift of the dominant acoustic rhythm from 100–150 Hz toward 1500–3600 Hz over the window suggests the colony's activity pattern has reorganized rather than simply quieted.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs sound_energy (7d) | r = -0.52

  The simultaneous downward trend in both temperature (daily mean falling from ~92°F/33.4°C toward ~88°F/31°C) and acoustic energy (all bands 17–26 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline) is the multi-sensor pattern that distinguishes a genuine population or brood-rearing reduction from a benign diurnal shift; per Minaud et al. 2024, the combination of a falling mean AND a widening daily amplitude (now 10.3°F/5.8°C, above the 5.4°F/3°C healthy-brood threshold) is the autumn-transition failure signature — damping eroding rather than the setpoint simply gliding down seasonally. A brood-break or reduced-colony explanation remains plausible if damping recovers, but the direction of the trend over the next 48 hours is the key discriminator.

  📚 Reference: Minaud et al. 2024, Ecological Indicators 169, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Kanelis et al. 2023, Biology 12:1392

  temperature vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.53

  The deconfounded r=+0.53 between in-hive temperature and humidity reflects active brood-area hygroregulation: as the cluster shrinks its heated footprint and temperature falls, absolute moisture in the brood zone decreases and RH falls with it — the psychrometric inverse confirming the humidity drop (from a historical avg ~57.9% to today's 53.0%) is metabolic physics, not a ventilation problem (Human et al. 2006).

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE / PMC6368279, Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic step-down against Iris's own baseline now seven days persistent (since ~October 16): all 10 spectral bands 17–26 dB below her all-time norms — unexplained by weather or season, diverging from the rising trend across the other three hives

  ⚠️ Issue: Brood temperature falling: 24-hour average 88.5°F (31.4°C) vs. yesterday's ~92°F (33.4°C), with daily swing now 10.3°F (5.8°C) — above the 5.4°F (3°C) well-clamped threshold and widening; warrants monitoring over next 24–48 hours to confirm damping does not continue to erode

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — ~17 lb sugar consumed since October 5; telemetry cannot see what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris this week — the widening temperature swing and persistent acoustic step-down both point to a reduced cluster; a heft will tell you what the sensors cannot about stores, and if she feels light, feed by weight toward at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross)

  ▹ Action: At heft, note brood pattern, population coverage, and whether a laying queen or open brood is visible — this directly contextualises the acoustic step-down and the cooling trend

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — bees cannot cure or collect syrup in the cold

  ▹ Action: If the 24-hour temperature average falls below 86°F (30°C) or the swing exceeds 14°F (8°C) in the next two days with no weather explanation, treat it as an escalating signal and move the inspection up
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 80/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 is averaging 93.6°F (34.2°C) with an exceptionally tight 1.4°F (0.8°C) daily swing — textbook single-deep brood regulation, comfortably inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — and a strong 73°F (24°C) warm offset above the 49.7°F (9.8°C) outdoor temperature (weather service figures used for all outdoor comparisons, as the hub thermometer reads warmer due to PCB self-heating). The 14-day rising acoustic trend continues: all bands are now 6.8–11.2 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline, dominant energy in the 800–1500 Hz band at –25.1 dB, with the ongoing spectral shift toward lower frequencies (200–260 Hz up +10 dB) consistent with active syrup-processing fanning; humidity averaged 51.9% (range 49.1–53.7%), well within the healthy band, and vibration kurtosis is 2.7 with RMS 0.0131 g — all normal; heft Hive #2 this week, as the single-deep carries the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24-hour temperature arc of 92.7–94.1°F (33.7–34.5°C) is a swing of just 1.4°F (0.8°C) against a 16°F (9°C) outdoor swing — outstanding brood clamping for a single-deep Apimaye in October; vibration shows a daily peak rhythm (9 of 15 days, baseline ~13.5 mG rising to ~19.1 mG) consistent with active fanning or foraging windows. The gas heater-scan at the 320°C reference reads ~48 kΩ, very close to Hive #2's all-time average of ~45.7 kΩ, and the 10-step scan shape (100°C: 962 kΩ declining to a 400°C upturn at 51 kΩ) is characteristic of a VOC-loaded hive air environment with the classic U-shape upturn at high plate temperatures — consistent with ongoing syrup dehydration; the daily rhythm in the low-temperature scan steps (100°C swinging +34%, 150°C +28%) reflects the metabolic water and volatile load cycling with the colony's active-to-quiet rhythm.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.43

  The deconfounded r=+0.43 between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (both rising together) is the signature of a metabolically active brood nest: as the colony heats the brood zone to incubate larvae, VOC output from brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene peaking at L2–L3 larvae) and syrup processing both increase, lowering gas resistance — but here both channels rise together, suggesting the warmer/more-active colony is also circulating more volatiles while simultaneously holding a higher setpoint; this is a health signal, not a stress signal (Maisonnasse et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.48

  The +9.6 dBFS 14-day acoustic rise in Hive #2 moving in step with the +8.3°F (4.6°C) temperature warming drift is the multi-sensor fingerprint of a colony ramping up syrup processing and brood-nest investment simultaneously — consistent with the colony-strength-from-temperature relationship (Cook et al. 2022: +1 frame of bees ≈ +0.36°C mean temperature) and the acoustic activity scaling reported by Ramsey et al. 2020.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — single-deep volume is the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; ~8 lb sugar consumed since October 5 is the lowest per-hive uptake and telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 first or alongside the others this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out, and if the colony has simply stopped taking syrup because frames are full, that is the confirmation you need

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), place fondant or a sugar brick directly over the cluster — bees cannot cure syrup in the cold

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep-frame equivalents (~40–50 lb gross)
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 88/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 continues to lead the apiary in both thermal stability and acoustic energy: 24-hour average 94.5°F (34.7°C) with an extraordinary 0.8°F (0.4°C) daily swing — the tightest brood clamping in the apiary and squarely inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band — and all 10 sound bands sitting 5.4–10.1 dB above Hive #1's own all-time baseline with dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony fundamental at –11.9 dB, consistent with a well-populated, actively processing colony; the 14-day rising acoustic trend (+4.6 dBFS) and warming drift (+5.9°F / 3.3°C) continue, and your logs confirm daily 1:1 syrup top-ups (~8 lb sugar since October 5). Humidity averaged 50.0% (range 48.3–52.1%), comfortably within the healthy band, and vibration kurtosis is 2.9 with RMS 0.0162 g — normal; heft Hive #1 this week, because the strong acoustic and thermal signature is the best in the apiary but cannot confirm what is stored in the cells.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24-hour arc of 94.1–94.9°F (34.5–34.9°C) is a swing of just 0.8°F (0.4°C) against a 16°F (9°C) outdoor swing — exceptional active brood regulation; 11 of 15 days show a clear vibration activity peak (baseline ~15.2 mG rising to ~22.6 mG), and the strongest sound daily rhythm is in the 1500–3600 Hz band (10.9 dB, strengthening from 7.1 to 11.8 dB over the window), likely reflecting the high-frequency wingbeat component of intensive fanning during peak syrup-processing periods. The gas heater-scan at the 320°C reference reads ~404 kΩ, closely matching Hive #1's all-time average of ~401.6 kΩ — stable air chemistry — and the 10-step scan shape is uniform and high-resistance across all plate temperatures (100°C: 51.7 MΩ, 400°C: 185 kΩ), indicating clean air with a modest VOC load consistent with brood pheromones and light syrup processing.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.9

  The exceptionally strong deconfounded r=+0.90 between in-hive temperature and humidity (p≈0, eff_n=1328) in Hive #1 is the tightest brood-zone coupling in the apiary and reflects a large, active workforce maintaining both thermal and hygric homeostasis simultaneously — as heater bees raise the brood core, metabolic water vapor and brood pheromone volatiles co-rise, producing the coordinated temp-humidity-gas triple correlation (r=+0.58 gas-temp, r=+0.44 gas-humidity) that is the sensor fingerprint of a dense, actively brooding colony (Kleinhenz et al. 2003; Maisonnasse et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE / PMC6368279, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol. 206:4217

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.48

  The partial correlation r=+0.48 (sound ~ temperature, controlling for outdoor weather) confirms that Hive #1's acoustic rise is colony-driven, not weather-driven: when outdoor temperature is held constant, warmer in-hive conditions still predict louder acoustics, consistent with a larger, more metabolically active workforce generating both heat and sound as syrup processing and brood rearing intensify together.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Cook et al. 2022, J. Econ. Entomol. 115:715
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — ~8 lb sugar consumed since October 5; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves despite the strong acoustic and thermal signature

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — the strongest acoustic and thermal profile in the apiary cannot tell you what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross)
• Hive #3 warning Score: 72/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 is averaging 93.8°F (34.4°C) with a 4.4°F (2.4°C) daily swing and a strong 44°F (24°C) warm offset above the 49.7°F (9.8°C) outdoor temperature — brood damping is intact and the brood core is well-regulated; the 14-day acoustic level is stable and all 10 sound bands are near Hive #3's own all-time baseline (max +3.4 dB deviation), and your logs confirm continued daily 1-gallon 1:1 feeder top-ups (~17 lb sugar since October 5). The two items to carry forward from the previous report remain: in-hive humidity averaged 40.6% (24h range 36.6–44.7%), persisting at the lower watch boundary for a sixth consecutive day, driven by dry Los Alamos autumn air ventilating through the screened floor — this is a weather-physics pattern, not a colony failure, but the 24-hour low of 36.6% is worth watching; and stores cannot be confirmed by telemetry, so heft Hive #3 this week.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24-hour arc of 91.4–95.8°F (33.0–35.5°C) is a swing of 4.4°F (2.4°C) — the widest in the three thermally active hives but still below the 5.4°F (3°C) healthy-brood threshold, confirming active clamping; the 1500–3600 Hz sound band shows the strongest daily rhythm (12.2 dB, strengthening from 10.0 to 14.1 dB over the window) and all 10 sound bands show a clear daily cycle — the most acoustically rhythmic hive in the apiary. Notably, sound energy fell 5.8 dBFS from the first to second half of the 24-hour window (−16.3 → −22.1 dBFS), with all 10 bands declining 3.8–7.4 dB in the second half — this half-day acoustic dip is the primary new signal to note; if it resolves with the next active period it is a normal circadian lull, but if it persists into tomorrow it should be re-evaluated against the temperature trend. Vibration RMS 0.0206 g with a clear daily peak rhythm (12 of 15 days, baseline ~19.4 mG rising to ~37.9 mG, 2x ratio — the highest daily multiplier in the apiary), dominant at 80–120 Hz and kurtosis 2.6 — normal, vigorous activity; gas heater-scan at 320°C reads ~105 kΩ, very close to the all-time average of ~107 kΩ, and the 10-step curve shape shows the gradual low-step decline from 100°C (5.2 MΩ) to 400°C (93 kΩ) typical of a colony with moderate brood and syrup-processing volatiles.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.61

  The partial correlation r=+0.61 (sound ~ temperature, controlling for outdoor weather) is the strongest sound-temperature coupling in the apiary and reflects a colony where fanning effort and brood heating are tightly co-regulated: as the colony ramps up syrup-processing fanning (driving acoustic energy), it simultaneously maintains its warmest brood temperatures — consistent with the active-cooling heat budget described by Harrison et al. 2026, where sound-generating fanning effort scales directly with the colony's thermal management load.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Harrison et al. 2026, J. Exp. Biol. 229:jeb252357

  humidity vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.47

  The partial r=−0.47 (humidity ~ temperature, controlling for outdoor) reveals that as Hive #3's brood core warms, relative humidity paradoxically falls — the psychrometric effect: the same absolute moisture reads as lower RH% at higher temperatures; this explains why Hive #3, the warmest and most active hive in the apiary, also consistently records the lowest in-hive humidity, and why the sub-40% readings are a thermodynamic consequence of vigorous brood regulation rather than a desiccation risk (Human et al. 2006).

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE / PMC6368279, Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 40.6% (24h range 36.6–44.7%) — persisting at the lower watch boundary for a sixth consecutive day; driven by dry October outdoor air and the sustained ventilation effort of this highly active colony through the screened floor

  ⚠️ Issue: Second-half acoustic dip of 5.8 dBFS across all 10 bands — new today; if it does not recover with the next active period, re-evaluate alongside the temperature trend

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — highest metabolic demand and syrup consumption in the apiary (~17 lb since October 5); telemetry cannot confirm reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 this week — highest metabolic demand and syrup consumption in the apiary, and a warm brood core confirms activity, not reserves

  ▹ Action: Monitor humidity: if the 24-hour low stays consistently below 37% over the next few days, consider whether partially closing the screened floor tray would retain moisture — confirm stores are adequate at heft first

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 1:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross); pair any continued pollen patty with ample sugar to avoid deepening the carbohydrate deficit in this high-demand brood nest