AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-20

As of October 20, 2026, all four hives are holding solid warm offsets above the 49.5°F (9.7°C) outdoor temperature — thermal damping is intact across the apiary and active brood rearing continues in all four colonies. The foraging season is closed at Los Alamos (last 7 days averaged 50.7°F / 10.4°C, outdoor dipping to 44.8°F / 7.1°C overnight), so the single most important action this week is a routine heft of every hive — temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm what is stored in the cells, and a colony can read thermally steady right up until its fuel runs out.

All three hives with strong acoustics (Hive #1, Hive #2, Hive #3) show a coherent spectral shift toward the 200–350 Hz colony-fundamental band over the 14-day window, consistent with intensified syrup-processing fanning activity as described by Peters et al. 2019 — the collective ventilation hum near 190 Hz and its harmonics near 350 Hz are the acoustic fingerprint of a colony actively curing dilute 1:1 syrup rather than ripening high-concentration nectar. Iris shows the inverse: a sustained 18–28 dB decline across all acoustic bands since October 16, consistent with a change-point in sound energy detected on that date, which warrants watching against her own baseline as the syrup-processing signal is not apparent in her current spectral profile.

All four hives show 24h temperature swings of 2.0–2.2°F against an outdoor swing of 20.1°F (44.8–64.9°F), confirming the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosures are buffering extremely effectively; outdoor humidity ranged 34.0–59.8% and is pulling in-hive humidity toward the dry end of or below the healthy band through open screened floors — a weather-physics effect shared across the apiary, not a colony defect.

• Iris warning Score: 68/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive is averaging 93.6°F (34.2°C) with a tight 2.0°F (1.1°C) daily swing and a ~50°F (~28°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — brood regulation and thermal damping remain fully intact, and your logs confirm she continues to empty her ~1 gal feeder daily (~17 lb sugar since October 5). However, a change-point in sound energy was detected around October 16, and the 14-day acoustic trend shows a sustained fall of 37.3 dBFS (from –13.9 to –51.1 dBFS), with all 10 spectral bands now sitting 19–28 dB below her own all-time baseline — this is a real shift in Iris's own acoustic history that does not match the rising acoustic trend seen in the other three hives, and while October foraging closure and syrup-processing dynamics offer partial context, it is worth noting at your next visit. Humidity is 51.9% (24h range 51.1–52.5%), well within the healthy 50–70% band — the most stable in the apiary.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds a textbook 24h arc of 92.5–94.5°F (33.6–34.7°C) with a 2.0°F (1.1°C) peak-to-trough swing — tight brood clamping; 14 of 15 days show a distinct daily vibration peak (baseline ~16.3 mG rising to ~25.2 mG, avg 1.5×), a normal fanning/activity rhythm. The gas heater-scan shows a low-resistance curve across all 10 steps relative to the outdoor clean-air reference (320°C step at 347 kΩ vs. outdoor 1,183 kΩ), with the dominant daily rhythm band shifting from 100°C to 200°C in the second half of the window — consistent with ongoing syrup-processing VOCs at brood-nest temperature. The acoustic change-point of –36.9 dBFS around October 16 is the primary diurnal-pattern deviation: all 10 sound bands are now 19–28 dB below Iris's own all-time average, with the 420–500 Hz rhythm strengthening in amplitude (5.6 → 43.6 dB daily swing) even as absolute energy fell — this unusual pattern of a strengthening diurnal acoustic rhythm at low absolute levels is worth monitoring.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = n/a

  The sustained 37 dBFS acoustic drop from October 16 while brood temperature remains fully clamped at 93–95°F (34–35°C) rules out an abrupt population collapse (which would cause both signals to fall together); the most likely explanation is a reduction in fanning and foraging activity consistent with the October foraging closure, but the magnitude of the shift against Iris's own baseline — far larger than seen in the other three hives — means it warrants a folded look at your next routine inspection to confirm colony population and queen status.

  📚 Reference: Kanelis et al. 2023, Biology 12:1392, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169:112961

  in_hive_humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.42

  The genuine deconfounded positive correlation (r=+0.42) between in-hive humidity and gas resistance in Iris reflects that as the colony fanning cycle drives humidity down, it simultaneously ventilates syrup-processing VOCs outward and restores gas resistance — a healthy ventilation-driven coupling, not a disease signal (Winston 1987; Eouzan et al. 2019).

  📚 Reference: Winston 1987, The Biology of the Honey Bee, Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE
  ⚠️ Issue: Sustained acoustic change-point detected ~October 16: all 10 sound bands now 19–28 dB below Iris's own all-time baseline, diverging from the rising acoustic trend seen across the other three hives — October quieting is the leading explanation but worth confirming at next inspection

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — ~17 lb sugar consumed since October 5 as daily doses is active intake but not confirmed capped reserves; telemetry cannot see what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm stores, and a colony can read thermally steady right up until fuel runs out

  ▹ Action: At heft, note the population and brood pattern to contextualise the acoustic step-down since October 16; if the colony feels light or looks reduced, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross)

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups while daytime highs permit syrup curing; if highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster
• Hive #2 warning Score: 74/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 is averaging 93.2°F (34.0°C) with a tight 2.0°F (1.1°C) daily swing and a ~48°F (~27°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — thermal damping is fully intact for a single-deep colony, and your logs confirm daily feeder top-ups (~8 lb sugar since October 5 at roughly half a gallon per day). The 14-day acoustic trend has risen +13.4 dBFS and all spectral bands now sit 5–11 dB above Hive #2's own all-time baseline, with dominant energy in the 200–350 Hz fundamental band and a per-band spectral shift toward lower frequencies consistent with intensified fanning and syrup-processing activity. Humidity averaged 49.4% (24h range 46.2–53.5%), slightly below the optimal 50–70% band, driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor — the same weather-physics pattern seen across the whole apiary.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds a stable 24h arc of 92.2–94.2°F (33.5–34.6°C); the dominant daily acoustic rhythm band shifted from 420–500 Hz to 200–260 Hz between the first and second half of the window, with 200–260 Hz and 260–350 Hz each rising +10 dB — the spectral energy is migrating toward the colony fundamental as fanning ramps up for syrup processing. Gas heater-scan shows a uniformly low-resistance curve (320°C step ~44 kΩ, the lowest in the apiary), with the curve flattening above 350°C (375°C: 41 kΩ, 400°C: 46 kΩ — a slight upturn at the high-temperature steps), suggesting a high reducing-VOC load from active syrup processing; the 320°C step daily rhythm (+19% swing) is the strongest gas diurnal in this hive, consistent with the ventilation cycle driving VOCs. Vibration shows no strong per-band daily rhythm (max 1.1 dB), with baseline ~13.6 mG and daily peaks to ~18.8 mG (9 of 15 days, avg 1.4×) — a modest but present fanning/activity rhythm.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  in_hive_temp vs in_hive_humidity (14d) | r = +0.69

  The genuine deconfounded positive correlation (r=+0.69, p=4.1e-94) between temperature and humidity in Hive #2 reflects active syrup-processing: as the colony raises brood temperature to support larval development and syrup curing, metabolic water and evaporating dilute syrup together elevate in-hive humidity — a coupled thermodynamic signature of a metabolically active colony, not a condensation or ventilation fault (Human et al. 2006; Eouzan et al. 2019).

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE / PMC6368279, Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401

  gas_resistance vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = -0.33

  The partial correlation between gas resistance and in-hive temperature (r=–0.33, controlling for outdoor weather) confirms that as brood-nest activity intensifies — driven by syrup processing and brood pheromone release — VOC load rises and gas resistance falls; this is a healthy metabolic coupling in an active October colony, not a pathological signal (Maisonnasse et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5:e13531, Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — single-deep volume provides the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; ~8 lb sugar consumed since October 5 is the lowest per-hive uptake and telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 49.4% (24h range 46.2–53.5%) — at the lower edge of the optimal 50–70% band; driven by October dry outdoor air through the screened floor; monitor if the 24h low approaches 40%

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 first or alongside the others this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out, and the lower syrup uptake makes it the hardest to read from telemetry alone

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), place fondant or a sugar brick directly over the cluster — bees cannot cure syrup in the cold

  ▹ Action: If cells are full and the colony is simply not taking more syrup, that is the confirmation you need; if light, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 82/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 remains the most acoustically energetic hive relative to its own baseline: averaging 94.0°F (34.5°C) with a 1.3°F (0.7°C) daily swing and a ~49°F (~27°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — textbook brood regulation with the tightest thermal clamping in the apiary. Your logs confirm daily feeder top-ups (~8 lb sugar since October 5), and all 10 spectral bands now sit 5–9 dB above Hive #1's own all-time baseline (dominant band 260–350 Hz at –14.0 dB), with a 14-day acoustic rising trend of +3.0 dBFS consistent with a well-populated, active colony processing syrup; humidity averaged 49.6% (24h range 47.5–51.5%), at the lower edge of the healthy band, unchanged from the October outdoor-air pattern. Heft Hive #1 this week alongside the others — a strong acoustic and thermal signature is reassuring but cannot confirm what is in the cells.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds a remarkably flat 24h arc of 93.3–94.6°F (34.0–34.8°C) with a 1.3°F (0.7°C) swing — the tightest brood clamping in the apiary; 11 of 15 days show a distinct daily vibration peak (baseline ~15.2 mG rising to ~22.7 mG, avg 1.5×). The dominant vibration rhythm band shifted from 80–120 Hz to 5–20 Hz in the second half of the window — consistent with a shift in dominant activity from fanning harmonics toward lower-frequency colony metabolic baseline as syrup processing workload evolves. The gas heater-scan shows a moderate-resistance curve (320°C step ~397 kΩ, close to Hive #1's own all-time average of 404 kΩ) with the daily rhythm concentrating at the 100°C step (+24% swing), and the 350°C and 150°C steps weakening in rhythm amplitude — suggesting the low-temperature volatile load (syrup/brood pheromones) is driving the daily gas cycle rather than a sustained chemistry shift. Sound energy is stable first-to-second half (–19.7 → –19.0 dBFS) with the 1500–3600 Hz band trending up +3.2 dB in the second half — the high-frequency wing-activity component strengthening slightly through the period.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  in_hive_temp vs in_hive_humidity (14d) | r = +0.86

  The strongest temperature–humidity coupling in the apiary (r=+0.86, p≈0) reflects Hive #1's highly active brood nest: metabolic water from a densely occupied brood frame co-varies tightly with the temperature the colony maintains, a signature of a well-populated colony actively managing both thermoregulation and moisture around the brood (Human et al. 2006; Eouzan et al. 2019).

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE / PMC6368279, Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401

  sound_energy vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = +0.59

  The partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature (r=+0.59, controlling for outdoor weather) confirms that Hive #1's acoustic activity is driven by metabolic colony state rather than ambient conditions — warmer brood nest = more active acoustic signature — consistent with fanning and foraging activity scaling with brood thermal demand (Peters et al. 2019; Ramsey et al. 2020).

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Peters et al. 2019, J. R. Soc. Interface 16:20180561
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — ~8 lb sugar consumed since October 5; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — a steady brood temperature and strong acoustics are reassuring but cannot confirm what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Continue daily feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross)
• Hive #3 warning Score: 76/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 remains the warmest and most acoustically energetic hive in the apiary: averaging 95.9°F (35.5°C) with a 2.2°F (1.2°C) daily swing and a ~51°F (~28°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — active brood rearing at the warm end of the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band, with all 10 acoustic bands sitting 7–11 dB above the all-time baseline (dominant band 260–350 Hz at –6.4 dB) and a continuing 14-day warming drift of +6.1°F (+3.4°C); your logs confirm ~17 lb sugar consumed since October 5, emptying the feeder daily. Humidity averaged 38.8% (24h range 35.3–44.1%), at and intermittently below the 40% larval-desiccation watch threshold — the leading driver remains dry October outdoor air and sustained ventilation from this highly active colony, and the humidity watch from the previous report continues.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds a stable 24h arc of 95.1–97.3°F (35.1–36.3°C) with a 2.2°F (1.2°C) swing; 12 of 15 days show a strong daily vibration peak (baseline ~19.4 mG rising to ~37.7 mG, avg 2.0× — the highest fanning amplitude in the apiary). The dominant vibration rhythm band shifted from 160–200 Hz to 5–20 Hz in the second half, and the 20–50 Hz band carries the strongest current daily rhythm (3.1 dB) — consistent with a shift from high-rate fanning to broader colony metabolic activity cycling. The gas heater-scan shows a flat-curve signature at the high-temperature steps (350°C: 89 kΩ, 375°C: 89 kΩ, 400°C: 97 kΩ — nearly flat above 350°C) while the low-temperature steps remain suppressed (100°C: 4,574 kΩ vs. outdoor 102,400 kΩ), indicating a sustained mid-spectrum reducing-VOC load from active syrup processing and brood pheromones; the 100°C gas step daily rhythm is weakening (41% → 24% swing) suggesting the VOC chemistry is stabilising. Sound energy is stable first-to-second half (–12.1 → –12.5 dBFS) with the 1500–3600 Hz daily rhythm weakening (17.2 → 11.4 dB swing) — high-frequency activity cycling is easing slightly while the fundamental 260–350 Hz band continues to grow (+5.9 dB over the window).

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = +0.82

  The strongest sound–temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r=+0.82, controlling for outdoor weather) in Hive #3 reflects a colony where acoustic activity and brood-nest metabolic intensity are tightly coupled — every increment of brood-nest warming drives a proportional increase in fanning and colony hum, consistent with a densely occupied, highly active brood nest in which heater bees and fanners share the same fuel supply (Peters et al. 2019; Harrison et al. 2026).

  📚 Reference: Peters et al. 2019, J. R. Soc. Interface 16:20180561, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Harrison et al. 2026, J. Exp. Biol. 229:jeb252357

  in_hive_humidity vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = -0.59

  The negative partial correlation between humidity and temperature in Hive #3 (r=–0.59, controlling for outdoor weather) is the psychrometric inverse: at this hive's higher brood temperature (~35.5°C), the same absolute water content reads as a lower RH%, and sustained fanning ventilates moisture outward — the humidity dip that accompanies the temperature peak is active thermoregulation physics, not drying (Eouzan et al. 2019; Ellis et al. 2008).

  📚 Reference: Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONE / PMC6368279, Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol. 54:1516
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 38.8% (24h range 35.3–44.1%) — at and intermittently below the 40% larval-desiccation watch threshold; driven by dry October outdoor air and sustained ventilation from this highly active colony; monitor closely

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — this hive carries the highest metabolic demand and syrup consumption in the apiary (~17 lb since October 5), but a warm brood core confirms activity, not reserves; telemetry cannot see the stores

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 this week — it carries the highest metabolic demand in the apiary and has consumed the most syrup, but a warm brood core confirms activity, not reserves

  ▹ Action: Monitor in-hive humidity: if the 24h low stays consistently below 37% over the next few days, consider whether the screened floor tray can be partially closed to retain moisture — but confirm stores are adequate at heft first

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 1:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs; pair any continued pollen patty with ample sugar to avoid deepening the carbohydrate deficit in this high-demand brood nest