AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-19

As of October 19, 2026, all four hives are holding solid warm offsets above the 49.0°F (9.5°C) outdoor temperature — thermal damping is intact across the apiary and brood rearing continues in three of the four hives. The season has firmly closed for foraging (last 7 days averaged 51.2°F / 10.7°C, outdoor dipping to 38.3°F / 3.5°C overnight), so the single most important action this week is a routine heft of every hive — temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm what is stored in the cells, and a colony can read steady right up until its fuel runs out.

Across the apiary, the two highest-consumption hives (Iris and Hive #3, each emptying ~1 gal/day) show the strongest acoustic energy and the warmest brood cores, while the two half-gallon hives (Hive #1 and Hive #2) show intermediate acoustics and slightly cooler means — consistent with published scaling of colony sound power and brood temperature with metabolic activity and population size (Meikle et al. 2017; Ramsey et al. 2020). Notably, Hive #2's gas heater-scan sits an order of magnitude lower in resistance than its neighbors, a persistent hive-specific fingerprint that has tracked its own baseline closely throughout the monitoring window, reinforcing the rule that inter-hive gas comparisons are meaningless.

All four hives show tight thermal damping with 24h swings of 2.1–3.2°F against an outdoor swing of 24.1°F, confirming the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosures are buffering effectively; outdoor humidity ranged 22.1–46.3% and outdoor temperature dipped to 38.3°F (3.5°C) overnight, pulling in-hive humidity toward the dry end of the healthy band through screened floors — a weather-physics phenomenon shared across all four hives and not a colony defect.

• Iris warning Score: 72/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive is averaging 93.7°F (34.3°C) with a tight 2.7°F (1.5°C) daily swing, comfortably inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band and holding a ~55°F (~31°C) warm offset above the overnight outdoor low — thermoregulation and damping are intact. Your logs confirm Iris continues to empty her ~1 gal feeder daily (~17 lb sugar since October 5), and the gas heater-scan's low-temperature steps (100–200°C) remain depressed relative to the mid-range steps, consistent with sustained syrup-processing VOCs in an active brood nest rather than any colony stress. The 14-day acoustic trend remains significantly below the all-time spectral baseline (all bands down 19–30 dB vs. history), which in context of the firmware transition and October foraging closure is consistent with seasonal quieting; heft Iris this week to confirm stores, as daily syrup top-ups are fuel, not a reserve guarantee.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature cycles tightly between 92.0–94.7°F (33.4–34.9°C) with a 2.7°F (1.5°C) peak-to-trough — well within healthy brood clamping; the dominant spectral rhythm has shifted from 1500–3600Hz toward 150–200Hz over the window, with 150–200Hz strengthening (+6.2 dB, rhythm from 4.5→7.1 dB amplitude), consistent with increased fanning/syrup-processing activity in the lower ventilation bands. Vibration shows a clear daily rhythm (14/15 days peaking at ~1.5× baseline, dominant band 80–120Hz, kurtosis 2.9 — no impulsive events), and humidity held a remarkably stable 52.1–53.5% (avg 52.7%), comfortably inside the optimal 50–70% band — notably improved from the previous dry spell and consistent with active syrup processing adding moisture to the brood nest.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.45

  The genuine deconfounded TempIn–GasResistance coupling (r=–0.45, partial r=–0.80 controlling for outdoor weather) reflects brood pheromones and syrup-processing VOCs scaling with metabolic activity: as the brood core warms with active heater-bee effort, volatile load rises and MOX resistance falls — a healthy brood-activity correlate, not a distress signal, particularly during sustained daily syrup intake (Maisonnasse et al. 2010 on E-β-ocimene; Stalidzans et al. 2017 on VOC-temperature coupling).

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stalidzans et al. 2017, Seeley 1985

  humidity vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.73

  The partial humidity–temperature anticorrelation (r=–0.73 controlling for outdoor) is a psychrometric identity: the same absolute water content in the brood nest reads as lower RH% when the core is warmer — the colony is not drying out, the thermometer and hygrometer are measuring the same air mass from two angles (Human et al. 2006; Ellis et al. 2008).

  📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Ellis et al. 2008
  ⚠️ Issue: 14-day acoustic trend remains 19–30 dB below all-time spectral baseline — October seasonal quieting is the leading explanation, but stores remain unconfirmed by weight

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — ~17 lb sugar consumed since Oct 5 at 1:1 dilution is meaningful syrup intake but not confirmed capped reserves; telemetry cannot see what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris this week — temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm stores; daily syrup consumption confirms uptake but not what has been capped

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — bees cannot cure syrup in the cold

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross) before temperatures close the syrup window
• Hive #2 warning Score: 74/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 is averaging 92.6°F (33.6°C) with a 2.1°F (1.2°C) daily swing and a ~54°F (~30°C) warm offset above the overnight outdoor low — thermal damping is fully intact for a single-deep colony. Your logs confirm ~8 lb sugar consumed since October 5 at roughly half a gallon per day, the lowest per-hive intake in the apiary; the 14-day acoustic trend has risen +16.4 dBFS and all spectral bands now sit 5.7–13.6 dB above the all-time baseline (dominant band 800–1500Hz at –26.5 dB), with the spectral energy shift toward 200–500Hz consistent with increased fanning and syrup-processing activity. Humidity averaged 44.7% (range 40.0–50.5%), slightly below the optimal 50–70% band — driven by October dry outdoor air through the screened floor; heft this hive first given its single-deep volume provides the smallest reserve buffer.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature rose steadily through the 24h window (91.5→93.6°F / 33.1→34.2°C, hourly trend rising +1.1°F), a gentle warming arc within the brood band with a 2.1°F (1.2°C) daily swing; the acoustic dominant rhythm band shifted 600–800Hz → 420–500Hz, with 200–260Hz, 260–350Hz, and 420–500Hz each gaining ~9.5–10.4 dB over the 14-day window — the 420–500Hz strengthening in particular warrants a note: this band overlaps queen-piping frequencies (400–500Hz), but the sustained 14-day progressive rise alongside rising temperature and feeding activity makes syrup-processing fanning acoustics the far more likely explanation. Vibration shows no consistent daily rhythm (only 9/15 days with a peak, avg 1.3× baseline, kurtosis 3.6 — normal), and the gas heater-scan shows a +23%/+18%/+14% step-up at the 100/150/200°C low-temperature steps over the window, consistent with increased light VOC load from syrup processing.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs humidity (14d) | r = +0.51

  The positive deconfounded TempIn–Humidity coupling (r=+0.51) in Hive #2 — unusual compared to the negative coupling in the other hives — is consistent with the colony's smaller thermal mass (single deep) and the screened floor coupling moisture more closely to metabolic output: as the cluster heats during active brood rearing and syrup processing, evaporative moisture from the syrup raises local RH, rather than the psychrometric drying effect dominating in the larger two-deep hives (Human et al. 2006).

  📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Ellis et al. 2008, Eouzan et al. 2019

  gas_resistance vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.33

  The partial gas–temperature anticorrelation (r=–0.33 controlling for outdoor) reflects syrup-processing VOC load scaling with brood activity — as the cluster warms with feeding-driven metabolism, volatile alcohols and organic acids from syrup conversion depress MOX resistance; Hive #2's gas baseline (~47 kΩ) is an order of magnitude lower than neighbors, a persistent hive-specific fingerprint that has been stable across its 23-day history and carries no disease implication (Burgues & Marco 2018).

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — single-deep volume provides the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; ~8 lb sugar consumed since Oct 5 is the lowest per-hive uptake, and telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 44.7% (24h range 40.0–50.5%) — slightly below the optimal 50–70% band; monitor if the 24h low approaches 40% as outdoor air remains dry

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 first or alongside the others this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out, and the lower syrup uptake makes it the hardest to read from telemetry alone

  ▹ Action: Continue daily feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), place fondant or a sugar brick directly over the cluster

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs; if cells are full and the colony is simply not taking more, that is the confirmation you need
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 remains the most acoustically energetic hive relative to its own baseline: averaging 91.6°F (33.1°C) with a 3.6°F (2.0°C) daily swing and a ~53°F (~30°C) warm offset above the overnight outdoor low — brood regulation and thermal damping are solid. Your logs confirm ~8 lb sugar consumed since October 5 at roughly half a gallon per day, and the 14-day acoustic level is stable with all 10 spectral bands sitting 5.4–8.0 dB above the all-time baseline (dominant band 200–260Hz at –16.2 dB), consistent with a well-populated, active colony; humidity averaged 47.8% (range 46.5–49.6%), at the dry end of the healthy band, unchanged from the October outdoor-air pattern. Heft Hive #1 this week alongside the others — a stable acoustic and thermal signature is reassuring but cannot confirm what is in the cells.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature tracked a gentle diurnal arc (89.7–93.3°F / 32.1–34.1°C, rising +2.6°F over the last 12h) with a 3.6°F (2.0°C) daily swing — within the healthy brood-clamping threshold; the 1500–3600Hz daily rhythm is gradually weakening (11.6→9.1 dB amplitude) while lower bands (100–260Hz) gained +3–8 dB over 14 days, consistent with the colony's acoustic energy consolidating into the ventilation and colony-hum bands as foraging closes for the season. Vibration shows a clear daily rhythm (11/15 days, baseline ~15.2 mG → peaks ~22.7 mG, kurtosis 2.9 — no impulsive events), with the dominant vibration rhythm band shifting 5–20Hz → 120–160Hz over the window — consistent with a shift from low-frequency structural activity toward higher-frequency fanning effort as syrup processing continues.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.58

  The partial sound–temperature coupling (r=+0.58 controlling for outdoor) reflects a healthy metabolic feedback: as the brood core warms with increased heater-bee activity and syrup processing, colony acoustic energy rises in parallel — both are driven by the same underlying metabolic state, and the relationship is genuine hive physiology, not a diurnal artifact (Meikle et al. 2017; Ramsey et al. 2020).

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Seeley & Tautz 2001

  humidity vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.77

  The strong partial humidity–temperature coupling (r=+0.77 controlling for outdoor) in Hive #1 mirrors the pattern in Hive #2 and reflects a two-deep colony with an open screened floor: metabolic moisture from syrup processing and brood respiration scales directly with brood-core temperature, so both channels rise and fall together as activity level changes — a sign of a metabolically coherent brood nest (Human et al. 2006).

  📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Ellis et al. 2008
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — ~8 lb sugar consumed since Oct 5; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — a steady brood temperature and strong acoustics are reassuring but cannot confirm what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Continue daily feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross)
• Hive #3 warning Score: 77/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 remains the warmest and most acoustically energetic hive in the apiary: averaging 96.1°F (35.6°C) with a tight 3.2°F (1.8°C) daily swing and a ~58°F (~32°C) warm offset above the overnight outdoor low — textbook active brood rearing at the warm end of the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band, with all 10 acoustic bands sitting 6.6–11.2 dB above the all-time baseline and a continuing 14-day warming drift of +4.2°F (+2.3°C). Your logs confirm ~17 lb sugar consumed since October 5 emptying the feeder daily — the highest per-hive intake alongside Iris; the 14-day spectral shift toward lower frequencies (260–350Hz dominant at –7.2 dB, +5.8 dB above baseline) is consistent with intensified fanning and syrup-processing activity. Humidity averaged 39.6% (range 37.0–43.6%), at and intermittently below the 40% watch threshold — the leading driver is dry October outdoor air through the screened floor, and with this colony sustaining the most metabolically demanding brood nest in the apiary, heft this week to confirm stores can support it.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature tracked 94.8–98.0°F (34.9–36.6°C) with a 3.2°F (1.8°C) daily swing — the tightest clamping in the apiary, consistent with a large active brood mass; the 1500–3600Hz daily rhythm is weakening (18.8→10.2 dB amplitude) while 260–350Hz, 350–420Hz, and 150–200Hz each gained +5.3–5.8 dB over 14 days, mirroring the shift toward ventilation-band acoustics seen apiary-wide as foraging ceases. Vibration shows the apiary's strongest daily rhythm (12/15 days, baseline ~19.4 mG → peaks ~37.7 mG, avg 2.0×, dominant band 20–50Hz at –8.7 dB, kurtosis 2.5 — smooth colony activity), and the gas heater-scan low-temperature steps (100/150/200°C) gained +32%/+23%/+20% over the window with a strong daily 100°C rhythm (+35% swing) — consistent with active brood pheromone and syrup-processing VOC cycling through an intensive brood nest.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.8

  The strong partial sound–temperature coupling (r=+0.80, the highest in the apiary controlling for outdoor weather) reflects Hive #3's large, active brood mass: heater-bee endothermy drives both the elevated core temperature and the colony's acoustic intensity, and the two channels track each other in residual space because they share the same metabolic driver — a textbook sign of a highly active brood colony (Kleinhenz et al. 2003; Meikle et al. 2017).

  📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie, Kleinhenz, Bujok, Fuchs & Tautz 2003, J. Exp. Biol., Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep.

  humidity vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.55

  The partial humidity–temperature anticorrelation (r=–0.55 controlling for outdoor) is the psychrometric inverse: Hive #3's sensor sits in the upper box near the top of the brood nest where warm, dry air stratifies, so warmer peaks coincide with lower RH readings — the colony is not losing moisture, the thermometer and hygrometer are sampling the same warm air mass from complementary angles (Human et al. 2006; Ellis et al. 2008).

  📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Ellis et al. 2008, Eouzan et al. 2019
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 39.6% (24h range 37.0–43.6%) — at and intermittently below the 40% larval-desiccation watch threshold; driven by dry October outdoor air and sustained ventilation from this highly active colony

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — this hive carries the highest metabolic demand and syrup consumption in the apiary (~17 lb since Oct 5), but a hot brood nest is not the same as full cells; telemetry cannot see the stores

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 this week — it carries the highest metabolic demand in the apiary and has consumed the most syrup, but a warm brood core confirms activity, not reserves

  ▹ Action: Continue daily feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop consistently below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 1:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold

  ▹ Action: Monitor in-hive humidity: if the 24h low stays consistently below 37% over the next few days, consider whether the screened floor tray can be partially closed to retain moisture — but confirm stores are adequate at heft first

  ▹ Action: If light at heft, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs; pair any continued pollen patty with ample sugar to avoid deepening the carbohydrate deficit in this high-demand brood nest