AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-18

As of October 18, 2026, all four hives are holding brood-band temperatures with solid warm offsets above the 46.0°F (7.8°C) outdoor reading — thermal damping is intact across the apiary. The season has firmly turned (last 7 days averaged 52.5°F / 11.4°C, outdoor dipping to 33.6°F / 0.9°C overnight), foraging is essentially closed, and daily feeding continues across all hives; the sensors cannot confirm what is stored in the cells, so a heft of every hive this week remains the single most important action before winter — temperature, sound, and vibration cannot see stores.

Across all four hives, the partial correlation between gas resistance and in-hive temperature (controlling for outdoor weather) is consistently negative (r = –0.47 to –0.82), confirming that syrup processing generates a genuine metabolic VOC load — as brood-nest temperature rises with active heating and syrup curing, reducing-gas concentration increases independently of the ambient cycle (Seeley 1974; Bencsik et al. 2023).

All four hives show retained thermal damping with 24h swings of 2.3–5.8°F against an outdoor swing of 28.6°F, confirming the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosures are buffering effectively; outdoor humidity collapsed to a 24h low of 17.4% and outdoor temperature dipped below freezing overnight at 33.6°F (0.9°C), pulling in-hive humidity toward the dry end of the healthy band through screened floors — a weather-physics phenomenon, not a colony defect.

• Iris warning Score: 72/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive is averaging 93.5°F (34.2°C) with a tight 3.7°F (2.1°C) daily swing, sitting comfortably inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band with a ~60°F (~33°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — thermoregulation is solid and damping is intact. Your logs confirm Iris has consumed roughly ~3.3 gallons (~17 lb sugar) of 1:1 syrup since October 5, emptying her ~1 gal feeder daily; the gas scan's low-temperature steps (100–200°C) are depressed ~13% relative to the mid-range steps, a shape consistent with syrup-processing VOCs circulating through an active brood nest. The 14-day acoustic trend continues falling (–28.6 dBFS), now sitting 17–25 dB below the all-time spectral baseline — consistent with October seasonal quieting, but stores remain unconfirmed by weight, so heft Iris this week.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds a remarkably flat 91.1–94.8°F (32.8–34.9°C) arc (swing 3.7°F / 2.1°C) against a 28.6°F outdoor swing — excellent brood clamping. Humidity is locked at 52.5–53.8% (avg 53.2%), squarely in the healthy 50–70% band and showing near-zero diurnal variation, reflecting active hygroregulation rather than passive ambient coupling. Sound averaged –45.9 dBFS over 24h, down –5.9 dBFS from the first to second half of the day — a normal diurnal lull consistent with the October foraging shutdown; all 10 spectral bands are 17–25 dB below their all-time baseline, a sustained fall that began ~14 days ago and is the primary watch signal. Vibration is stable at 14.8–26.6 mG (avg 17.1 mG), dominant at 80–120 Hz, kurtosis 2.7 (no impulsive events), with a clear daily activity peak on 14 of 15 days — a healthy fanning/foraging rhythm. The gas heater-scan shows a monotonically falling curve from 100°C to 375°C then a slight uptick at 400°C; the 100–200°C steps are suppressed ~11–13% relative to the mid-range, consistent with syrup-processing volatile load rather than a shape-change of concern.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.85

  The 14-day acoustic decline (–28.6 dBFS, low bands down –30 dB) is anti-correlated with the simultaneous 14-day temperature warming (+11.8°F / +6.6°C) toward the brood setpoint — as the colony ramped up active brood rearing and syrup processing post-emergency feeding, metabolic heat production increased while foraging/flight acoustics fell as October closed the forage window; these are opposite-direction signals from two distinct biological processes (thermoregulation vs. foraging activity), not a contradiction.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Bencsik et al. 2023, Seeley 1985

  gas_resistance vs temperature (13d) | r = -0.82

  The partial correlation (r = –0.82, controlling for outdoor weather) confirms a genuine hive-specific coupling: as brood-nest temperature rises, gas resistance falls — brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene), syrup-curing volatiles, and fanning activity all increase reducing-gas load in step with metabolic output, a healthy metabolic fingerprint of an active brood nest processing sugar.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Burgues & Marco 2018, Seeley 1974
  ⚠️ Issue: 14-day acoustic trend down –28.6 dBFS with all bands 17–25 dB below all-time baseline — seasonal quieting consistent with October foraging closure, but sustained enough to watch alongside stores confirmation

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by weight — ~17 lb sugar consumed since Oct 5 at 1:1 dilution represents meaningful syrup intake but not confirmed capped stores; telemetry cannot see what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris this week — temperature, sound, and vibration cannot confirm stores; a daily gallon of 1:1 syrup is fuel, not a stores guarantee, and this is the last reliable syrup-uptake window before temperatures close

  ▹ Action: Continue daily 1:1 feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — bees cannot cure syrup in the cold

  ▹ Action: At heft: if light, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross) before temperatures lock the hive down
• Hive #2 warning Score: 74/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 is averaging 91.1°F (32.8°C) with a 5.8°F (3.2°C) daily swing and a ~57°F (~32°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — the cluster is producing heat normally for a single-deep colony, and damping is retained. Your logs confirm ~1.7 gallons (~8 lb sugar) consumed since October 5 at roughly half a gallon per day — the slowest uptake in the apiary; the gas heater-scan shows rising resistance at the 100–150°C low-temperature steps (+18% and +13% respectively) since October 15, which, combined with a simultaneous humidity drop (change-point –9.78% around October 13), is consistent with the colony becoming less metabolically intense rather than more — worth watching as a stores signal. Humidity is 40.1–45.5% (avg 42.9%), slightly below the optimal 50–70% band, driven by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor; monitor if it falls further toward 40%.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature oscillates 87.8–93.6°F (31.0–34.2°C), a 5.8°F (3.2°C) swing — the widest in the apiary but still well within the retained-damping threshold (outdoor swing 28.6°F); the hourly trend shows a characteristic dip to ~88°F (31°C) during the cooler portion of the 24h cycle then recovery toward ~93°F (33.4°C), a healthy single-deep cluster pattern. Humidity averaged 42.9%, slightly below optimal but consistent with the dry outdoor air (24h low 17.4%) venting through the screened floor — a weather artifact, not a colony fault. Sound level averaged –32.6 dBFS, stable first-to-second half (–32.4 → –32.7 dBFS), with all bands 5.8–14.5 dB ABOVE the pre-reset all-time baseline — confirming the post-reset fingerprint established after October 4 is solidifying; the 14-day trend shows +15.3 dBFS rising from –47.9 dBFS, with low bands (100–260 Hz) up +15 dB, consistent with active syrup processing and ventilation. Vibration averages 13.2 mG, dominant at 80–120 Hz, kurtosis 3.1 (normal, no impacts), with only 8/15 days showing a clear daily peak — the muted rhythm reflects reduced foraging in October rather than colony stress. The gas heater-scan shows a step-up at 100–150°C (+18% and +13% band energy shift) with a change-point around October 15, while 400°C weakens — the shape is becoming flatter at low temperatures, consistent with a shift in the VOC mixture as syrup uptake slows.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (13d) | r = -0.8

  The genuine deconfounded correlation (r = –0.80, p = 1.2e-5) confirms that as this single-deep colony's brood-nest temperature rises, gas resistance falls — a direct metabolic coupling: warmer brood requires more heater-bee activity, more trophallaxis, and more syrup processing, all of which elevate reducing-VOC load at the sensor; the change-point in gas resistance (+11,471 Ω around October 15) suggests the metabolic intensity of syrup curing has begun to ease slightly, worth correlating with consumption at heft.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2009, Burgues & Marco 2018, Seeley 1974

  humidity vs gas_resistance (13d) | r = -0.59

  The deconfounded humidity–gas coupling (r = –0.59, p = 1.6e-3) reflects syrup evaporation: when bees process 1:1 syrup they exhale metabolic water and fan to evaporate syrup moisture, raising in-hive humidity while simultaneously circulating VOC-rich air past the sensor; the October 13 humidity drop (–9.78% change-point) coinciding with the October 15 gas-resistance rise suggests syrup intake and processing intensity have both eased in this hive.

  📚 Reference: Ellis et al. 2008, Winston 1987, White 1978
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — single-deep volume provides the smallest reserve buffer in the apiary; ~8 lb sugar consumed since Oct 5 is the lowest per-hive uptake, raising the question of whether this colony has already filled available cells or is consuming more slowly due to a smaller cluster

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 42.9% (24h range 40.1–45.5%) — slightly below the optimal 50–70% band; monitor if outdoor humidity remains this low and the reading approaches 40%

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 first or alongside the others this week — single-deep capacity means the smallest margin before stores run out, and the slower syrup uptake makes it the hardest to read from telemetry alone

  ▹ Action: Continue daily feeder top-ups; the current ~half-gallon/day intake should be encouraged — if the colony is not taking more, confirm at heft whether cells are full or the cluster is smaller than expected

  ▹ Action: If light, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs; if daytime highs are below 50°F (10°C), place fondant or a sugar brick directly over the cluster
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 remains the most acoustically stable hive in the apiary: averaging 90.8°F (32.6°C) with a tight 3.1°F (1.7°C) daily swing and a ~57°F (~32°C) warm offset above the outdoor low, the brood nest is well regulated and damping is fully intact. Your logs confirm ~1.7 gallons (~8 lb sugar) consumed since October 5 at ~half a gallon per day; the 14-day acoustic level is stable and all 10 spectral bands sit 5.4–8.8 dB above the all-time baseline — a consistent, healthy acoustic fingerprint that has changed very little week to week. Humidity is 45.4%, toward the dry end of the healthy band due to October outdoor air, but stable; keep an eye on stores at heft.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature holds 88.9–92.0°F (31.6–33.4°C), a 3.1°F (1.7°C) swing — excellent brood clamping for a double-deep in October. Sound averaged –20.8 dBFS over 24h, with a modest –2.0 dBFS fall first-to-second half; the 200–260 Hz band dominates at –15.9 dB (8.8 dB above its all-time baseline), with the 14-day acoustic spectrogram stable — no meaningful band shifts. Vibration averages 16.1 mG, dominant at 80–120 Hz, kurtosis 2.8 (normal), with a clear daily peak on 11/15 days (baseline ~15.3 mG rising to ~22.8 mG). Gas heater-scan shows the 100–150°C daily rhythm weakening (from +24% to +9% swing), consistent with syrup-processing VOC load stabilizing as October cools — a normal metabolic wind-down. The partial correlations confirm a genuine sound–temperature coupling (r = +0.65) and humidity–gas coupling (r = –0.81) that are hive-specific metabolic signatures, not ambient artifacts.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (13d) | r = +0.65

  The partial correlation (r = +0.65, controlling for outdoor weather) shows that in Hive #1, acoustic energy and brood-nest temperature move together independently of ambient conditions — warmer brood correlates with more colony activity sound, consistent with the mechanistic link between heater-bee thermogenesis, trophallaxis, and the acoustic buzz of a metabolically active nest (Kleinhenz et al. 2003); the stable 14-day acoustic trend confirms this coupling is at a healthy, steady level.

  📚 Reference: Kleinhenz et al. 2003, Seeley & Tautz 2001, Ramsey et al. 2020

  humidity vs gas_resistance (13d) | r = -0.81

  The strongest deconfounded coupling in this hive (r = –0.81, p = 3.0e-11) links in-hive humidity and gas resistance: as bees process syrup and brood pheromones accumulate, evaporative fanning raises humidity while simultaneously driving gas resistance down — a co-dependent metabolic signal of an active, well-fed brood nest processing sugar stores (Ellis et al. 2008; Maisonnasse et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Ellis et al. 2008, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Burgues & Marco 2018
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by weight — ~8 lb sugar consumed since Oct 5; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 this week as part of the apiary-wide October stores check — a steady brood temperature and stable acoustics are reassuring but cannot confirm what is in the cells

  ▹ Action: Continue daily feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster

  ▹ Action: If light, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs (~40–50 lb gross)
• Hive #3 warning Score: 76/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 remains the warmest and most acoustically energetic hive in the apiary: averaging 96.5°F (35.8°C) with an exceptionally tight 2.3°F (1.3°C) daily swing and a ~96°F (~53°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — textbook active brood rearing at the warm end of the ideal band. Your logs confirm ~3.3 gallons (~17 lb sugar) consumed since October 5, emptying the feeder daily — the highest per-hive intake alongside Iris; the 14-day warming drift (+3.7°F / +2.1°C) and rising acoustic trend (+2.4 dBFS) are consistent with a colony that has been building on the incoming syrup. Humidity is 38.76–43.9% (avg 40.3%), at the 40% larval-desiccation watch threshold driven by dry outdoor air and sustained ventilation effort — this is the one signal worth watching as ambient humidity continues to fall.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature is the most tightly clamped in the apiary: 95.9–98.2°F (35.5–36.8°C), a 2.3°F (1.3°C) swing, with hourly values holding 96.1–97.4°F hour after hour — classic endothermic brood-nest stenothermy (Kleinhenz et al. 2003). Sound averaged –11.8 dBFS over 24h (stable ±0.3 dBFS), with all 10 spectral bands 7.6–13.8 dB above their all-time baseline; the dominant band is 260–350 Hz (–5.4 dB), which is the colony fundamental frequency associated with a populous, queen-right colony. Vibration averages 20.5 mG, dominant at 80–120 Hz, kurtosis 2.7 (normal), with a clear daily fanning peak on 12/15 days (baseline ~19.4 mG rising to ~37.5 mG — the largest daily amplitude in the apiary). Gas heater-scan shows the largest VOC load of the four hives: the 100°C step sits at 4,988 kΩ (vs. 102,400 kΩ outdoors), with the 100–200°C steps carrying +40%, +29%, +24% band energy shifts — consistent with brood pheromones, syrup processing, and sustained fanning concentrating volatiles in this very active nest. The dominant sound rhythm band shifted from 1500–3600 Hz to lower bands (150–200 Hz strengthening) over the monitoring window, consistent with the high-frequency wingbeat rhythm giving way to the lower-frequency colony hum as activity consolidates around the brood nest in October.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (13d) | r = +0.79

  The strongest sound–temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r = +0.79, controlling for outdoor weather) confirms that in Hive #3, acoustic energy and brood-nest temperature are tightly co-regulated: as endothermic heater bees warm the brood to 96–98°F (35.6–36.7°C), the colony's metabolic hum rises in step — a direct reflection of coordinated thermogenesis by a large, active worker population (Kleinhenz et al. 2003; Stabentheiner et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Kleinhenz et al. 2003, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, Ramsey et al. 2020

  temperature vs gas_resistance (13d) | r = -0.51

  The deconfounded temperature–gas coupling (r = –0.51, p = 8.1e-10, eff_n = 130) shows that as this hive's brood temperature rises above its own baseline, gas resistance falls — brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene from L2–L3 larvae), syrup-curing volatiles, and intensified fanning all increase the reducing-gas load in step with metabolic output; the gas scan's rising low-temperature steps (+40% at 100°C) are the strongest such signal in the apiary and reflect the highest brood-pheromone and syrup-processing load.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Seeley 1974, Bencsik et al. 2023
  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 40.3% (24h range 37.6–43.9%) — at and intermittently below the 40% larval-desiccation watch threshold; driven by dry October outdoor air (24h low 17.4%) and sustained ventilation from this highly active colony; monitor closely if outdoor humidity remains this low

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — this hive is sustaining the warmest, most metabolically demanding brood nest in the apiary while consuming the most syrup; despite ~17 lb sugar since Oct 5, actual capped reserves are unknown; telemetry cannot see the cells

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 this week — it carries the highest metabolic demand in the apiary and has consumed the most syrup, but a hot brood nest is not the same as full cells; confirm stores by weight

  ▹ Action: Continue daily feeder top-ups; if daytime highs drop below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster — 1:1 syrup cannot be cured in the cold

  ▹ Action: Monitor in-hive humidity: if the 24h low drops consistently below 40% over the next few days, consider whether the screened floor tray can be partially closed to reduce ventilation and retain moisture — but only after confirming stores are adequate at heft

  ▹ Action: If light, feed by weight toward a stores target of at least two full deep combs; pair any continued pollen patty with ample sugar to avoid deepening the carbohydrate deficit in a hot brood nest