AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-17

As of October 17, 2026, all four hives are holding brood-band temperatures with a solid warm offset above the 47°F (8.3°C) outdoor reading — thermal damping remains intact across the apiary. The single unresolved thread is confirmed stores: seven days have passed since the last feeding round, October foraging is essentially closed at these temperatures, and a heft of every hive this week remains the most important action before winter.

All four hives show the same robust deconfounded TempIn~GasResistance anticorrelation (r = -0.45 to -0.91), reflecting the well-documented brood-pheromone and syrup-processing VOC load rising in lockstep with brood-nest warmth — a healthy signal of active colonies converting their October feeding into metabolic heat and brood expansion (Stalidzans et al. 2017; Maisonnasse et al. 2010). Notably, Hive #3 carries the highest acoustic energy and warmest brood core while also showing the lowest gas resistance among the in-hive sensors, consistent with the greatest metabolic activity and highest VOC load from an active brood nest still consuming protein.

All four hives show consistent daily vibration activity rhythms with afternoon peaks and clear 24h thermal cycles; outdoor temperature ranged 42–61°F (5.7–16.0°C) with humidity 23–42%, pulling in-hive humidity toward the lower end of the healthy band through screened floors — normal October physics. Barometric pressure is steady (3h tendency -0.21 hPa), suggesting stable conditions with no frontal forcing on foraging behavior.

• Iris warning Score: 78/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive is holding a solid brood-core average of 93.3°F (34.1°C) with a 3.1°F (1.7°C) swing — well inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band and maintaining a ~46°F (25°C) warm offset above the outdoor low, exactly where it should be. Your October 10 log of 1 gallon of 1:1 syrup aligns with the sustained acoustic activity and the gas resistance step-down around October 7 (a sustained -63kΩ shift), both consistent with ongoing syrup-processing and brood-pheromone VOC load. Confirmed stores remain the key open item — a heft on your next visit will tell you what the sensors cannot.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Iris shows a clear 24h acoustic rhythm with a strong first-half/second-half drop of ~13 dB (sound trended from -22.4 to -35.5 dBFS), consistent with a foraging/activity window followed by a quiet period as temperatures fall — normal October diurnal gating. The 24h sound average of -28.9 dBFS is 6.2 dB below the all-time baseline of -22.7 dB, a meaningful shift; however, the per-band analysis shows the dominant rhythm band migrating from 1500–3600Hz toward 150–200Hz, and energy rising in 260–350Hz (+6.2 dB), 150–200Hz (+5.5 dB), and 350–420Hz (+5.2 dB) over the window — a spectral shift toward lower frequencies consistent with increased fanning and brood-activity buzzing rather than population loss. Vibration holds steady near its all-time average (current 0.0154 g vs. all-time avg 0.0172 g) with a kurtosis of 3.0 indicating no impulsive disturbances; the 24h vibration arc shows the expected daily fanning rhythm (14 of 15 days with a peak ~1.5x baseline). Humidity is 53.9% — comfortably within the healthy 50–70% brood band and tracking the dry October outdoor air through the screened floor. Gas resistance at 337kΩ sits near the all-time average of 367kΩ and is stable following the October 7 step-down, which coincides with the syrup feeding and brood expansion; the heater-scan shape shows a smooth monotonic decline from 100°C to 400°C with no unusual inflections, consistent with a stable mix of brood pheromones and syrup-processing VOCs.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  in-hive temp vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.45

  The deconfounded anticorrelation between brood-nest temperature and gas resistance in Iris reflects the well-established relationship between active brood rearing and VOC load: as the colony expands its brood nest and warms, E-β-ocimene and other brood pheromones rise, syrup processing adds fermentation volatiles, and the MOX plate sees lower resistance. The October 7 gas change-point (step of -63kΩ) coincides with the post-feeding brood expansion and is the strongest expression of this relationship in Iris's history.

  📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Seeley 1985

  in-hive humidity vs in-hive temp (14d) | r = -0.61

  The partial correlation (controlling for outdoor weather) between in-hive humidity and temperature is negative: as the brood nest warms, the psychrometric inverse drives RH down — warmer air holds more water at the same absolute moisture content, so a rising core temperature at constant ventilation reads as lower RH. The current 53.9% RH is the natural result of a 93–94°F (34°C) brood core in dry October air ventilating through a screened floor, not a desiccation concern.

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Eouzan et al. 2019
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by weight — seven days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris on your next visit and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs; if daytime highs have dropped below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster
• Hive #2 warning Score: 74/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 is holding a brood average of 91.7°F (33.2°C) with a 4.8°F (2.7°C) swing, maintaining a clear ~44°F (24°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — the cluster is producing heat normally for a single-deep colony. Your October 10 log of 1 gallon of 1:1 syrup aligns with the 14-day warming drift (+13.2°F / +7.3°C) and the low-frequency spectral shift (+13.9 dB in 100–260Hz), both consistent with active syrup processing and brood expansion following the earlier starvation recovery. Sound baseline was reset on October 4 so the current level of -33.8 dBFS is a new starting reference — it cannot be compared to pre-reset values, but the spectrum itself (dominant at 800–1500Hz, strong 200–260Hz) is characteristic of an active colony.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #2 shows active 24h diurnal temperature cycles averaging +4.0°F (2.2°C) daily oscillation, consistent with a single-deep colony with less thermal mass than double-deep neighbors. The 24h sound average of -33.8 dBFS is stable (first half -33.9, second half -33.8 dBFS) and significantly above the pre-reset all-time average of -42.4 dB — but per the sound baseline reset notice, this reflects the new acoustic path established since October 4, not a colony-level change; treat the current level as a new baseline. The per-band analysis shows the dominant rhythm band shifted from 600–800Hz to 420–500Hz in the second half of the window, with energy rising in 200–260Hz (+7.6 dB), 260–350Hz (+7.2 dB), and 420–500Hz (+7.2 dB) — the 420–500Hz rise warrants passive monitoring as this band overlaps with queen-tooting frequencies, though at this stage it is most consistent with increased fanning and buzzing activity. Vibration averages 0.0135 g (vs. all-time avg 0.0187 g) with only 8 of 15 days showing a distinct daily peak — somewhat less rhythmic than the other hives, which is consistent with a smaller single-deep colony with less foraging traffic. Kurtosis at 3.3 is normal with no impulsive events. Humidity at 44.8% is below the optimal 50–70% brood band but is being driven by dry outdoor air (32–42% RH) ventilating through the screened floor — a weather artifact, not a desiccation risk at current brood temperatures. Gas resistance at 50.5kΩ is near its all-time average of 48.5kΩ, with the heater-scan showing a flat profile at the high-temperature steps (375°C and 400°C steps rising slightly to 46–53kΩ) — the characteristic low-resistance fingerprint of a high-VOC hive environment consistent with ongoing syrup processing.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  in-hive temp vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.91

  Hive #2 shows the strongest TempIn~GasResistance anticorrelation in the apiary (r=-0.91), driven by the dramatic October recovery: as the brood nest warmed from starvation-level temperatures toward the 93°F (34°C) band, brood pheromones, syrup-processing volatiles, and fanning activity all rose together, collapsing gas resistance in lockstep. The change-point around October 9 (+4.89°F step in temperature) is the mechanistic anchor — brood rearing restarted, heater bees activated, and the VOC load surged simultaneously.

  📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Maisonnasse et al. 2010

  in-hive humidity vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.63

  The humidity~gas resistance anticorrelation reflects fanning activity coupling both channels: as bees fan more vigorously to process syrup and regulate the brood nest, they both concentrate hive VOCs (lowering gas resistance) and draw in dry outdoor air (lowering in-hive RH). The current 44.8% RH is the expected outcome of a single-deep colony with active fanning in 32% outdoor air, not a larval desiccation concern.

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Winston 1987
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — seven days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; single-deep colony has smaller reserve capacity than double-deep neighbors

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 44.8% — pulled below the optimal 50–70% band by dry October outdoor air through screened floor; monitor if humidity drops further below 40%

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 on your next visit and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs for a single-deep colony; if daytime highs have dropped below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster

  ▹ Action: Passively note: the 420–500Hz acoustic band has risen over the past week — worth a glance at brood pattern on your next planned inspection to confirm queen status, no urgency
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 84/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 continues to impress: the 24h average of 92.8°F (33.8°C) with a 3.2°F (1.8°C) swing is the most precisely clamped brood temperature in the apiary, +5.8°F (+3.2°C) above its all-time average of 87.0°F (30.5°C) and squarely in the ideal band with a clear ~45°F (25°C) warm offset above the outdoor low. Your October 10 log of 1 gallon of 1:1 syrup aligns with the 14-day +6.9°F (3.8°C) warming drift and the sound spectrum's small but consistent shift toward lower frequencies (+3.6 dB in 100–260Hz) — all consistent with active syrup processing and continued brood expansion; confirmed stores remain the key open item.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #1 shows the tightest diurnal temperature control in the apiary: +2.4°F (1.3°C) daily oscillation against an outdoor range of 19°F (10°C), reflecting excellent thermal buffering from the R≈6.93 Apimaye walls. Sound baseline was reset October 4 — the current 24h average of -19.9 dBFS establishes a new reference; the spectrum is stable (all bands within ±1.7 dB of the post-reset baseline), with 200–260Hz (-14.9 dB) and 260–350Hz (-15.3 dB) as the dominant bands, consistent with normal colony hum and healthy foraging activity. The sound partial correlation with in-hive temperature (r=+0.68, controlling for outdoor) confirms that acoustic energy rises and falls with brood-nest warmth — a sign of a well-functioning, brood-coupled colony. Vibration averages 0.0161 g (matching the all-time avg of 0.0162 g) with 11 of 15 days showing daily peaks ~1.5x baseline; kurtosis 3.1 is normal. Humidity at 46.3% is below the optimal 50–70% band, pulled by dry October outdoor air through the screened floor — the same weather-driven dynamic seen across the apiary, not a colony concern. Gas resistance at 423kΩ is essentially at its all-time average of 418kΩ and steady; the heater-scan shape is a smooth monotonic decline with the low-temperature steps (100–200°C) weakening over the second half of the window, consistent with a gradually settling post-feeding VOC baseline.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound energy vs in-hive temp (14d) | r = +0.68

  The partial correlation between sound energy and brood-nest temperature (controlling for outdoor weather) in Hive #1 reflects the well-established coupling between active brood rearing and colony acoustic output: more heater bees, more nurse activity, and more fanning all raise both the thermal setpoint and the acoustic energy simultaneously. This is a positive health indicator — the colony's sound and heat production are rising and falling together as an integrated biological unit.

  📚 Reference: Seeley & Tautz 2001, Ramsey et al. 2020

  in-hive humidity vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.77

  The strong humidity~gas resistance anticorrelation in Hive #1 is driven by fanning: ventilation bees simultaneously draw in dry October air (lowering RH) and circulate hive VOCs past the sensor (lowering gas resistance). The correlation is strongest here among the double-deep hives, possibly because the upper-box sensor placement means the fanning airstream passes more directly over it.

  📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Maisonnasse et al. 2010
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection — seven days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 on your next visit and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs; the stable temperature is encouraging but cannot tell you what is in the cells, and October is shortening the syrup-uptake window
• Hive #3 warning Score: 76/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 is the warmest and most acoustically active hive in the apiary: the 24h average of 96.3°F (35.7°C) with an exceptionally tight 2.1°F (1.2°C) swing sits at the warm end of the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band, with a ~88°F (49°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — textbook active brood rearing. Your October 10 log of half a gallon of 1:1 syrup while the colony continues consuming the pollen patty explains the high acoustic energy and elevated VOC load; the 14-day +24°F (13.3°C) warming drift confirms full recovery from the early-October starvation event, and confirmed stores and carbohydrate sufficiency remain the primary watch item given this hive received the smallest feeding dose while sustaining the highest metabolic demand.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Hive #3 shows remarkable brood-core stability: 24h temperature range of only 2.1°F (1.2°C) — the tightest in the apiary — and a fully stable hour-by-hour trace, consistent with a dense, well-provisioned brood cluster in the upper box. Sound baseline was reset October 4; the current 24h average of -11.3 dBFS is the new reference, with the 260–350Hz band (-4.8 dB dominant) and 420–500Hz (-8.8 dB) carrying the most energy — bands associated with normal colony hum, fanning, and the standard harmonic series of an active brood nest. All 10 sound bands show a daily rhythm; the 1500–3600Hz band rhythm is weakening (20.0→6.0 dB swing) while lower bands strengthen, consistent with a spectral shift toward fanning/brood-activity frequencies as the colony settles post-recovery. Vibration averages 0.0206 g (matching the all-time avg of 0.0204 g) with 12 of 15 days showing daily peaks averaging 1.9x baseline — the most vigorous daily vibration rhythm in the apiary, consistent with a large active foraging force. Kurtosis at 2.7 is slightly below the neutral 3.0, indicating smooth, continuous activity with no impulsive events. Humidity at 39.3% is just below the 40% larval desiccation threshold, pulled by dry October outdoor air (23–42% RH) through the screened floor; the partial correlation of humidity with in-hive temperature (r=-0.53) confirms that the high brood-nest temperature is a psychrometric driver of the low RH reading — at 96°F (36°C), the same absolute moisture content registers as lower RH. Gas resistance at 105kΩ is near its all-time average of 106kΩ, and the heater-scan shows a flattening in the high-temperature steps (375°C and 400°C steps both ~85–93kΩ) — a shape consistent with a heavy but stable mixture of brood pheromones and syrup/patty-processing VOCs.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound energy vs in-hive temp (14d) | r = +0.81

  Hive #3 shows the strongest sound~temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r=+0.81), which directly maps to its dramatic October recovery arc: as heater bees reinitiated thermogenesis following the starvation event, both the brood-nest temperature and colony acoustic output rose in tight lockstep. The change-point around October 9 (+3.87°F step in temperature) is the biological anchor — the colony crossed a threshold from a shrinking cluster to an actively expanding brood nest, and the acoustic channel reflects that same transition.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Seeley & Tautz 2001, Kleinhenz et al. 2003

  in-hive temp vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.76

  The strong TempIn~GasResistance anticorrelation in Hive #3 reflects both the recovery arc (brood expansion and VOC rise) and the ongoing pollen-patty consumption: E-β-ocimene from rapidly expanding young-larvae populations is emitted most strongly at L2–L3 stage (~14 ng/larva/20 min) and has a boiling point of 73°C, diffusing colony-wide — the highest metabolic activity in the apiary produces the lowest gas resistance, a healthy and expected coupling.

  📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Maisonnasse et al. 2010
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — only half a gallon of 1:1 syrup on October 10 while the colony sustains the warmest, most metabolically active brood nest in the apiary; highest carbohydrate demand, smallest recent dose

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 39.3% — just below the 40% larval desiccation threshold; being driven by dry October outdoor air, but worth monitoring as ambient humidity continues to fall

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first on your next visit — it received the smallest feeding dose while sustaining the warmest, most active brood nest, making it the most likely candidate for a carbohydrate shortfall; feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs

  ▹ Action: Ensure sugar is supplied in bulk alongside any remaining pollen patty — protein without adequate carbohydrate deepens the deficit, as a brood nest running at 96°F (35.6°C) is the most metabolically expensive state a colony can maintain; if daytime highs drop below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars