AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-16

As of October 16, 2026, all four hives are holding brood-band temperatures with a solid warm offset above the 48°F (9°C) outdoor low — thermal damping is intact across the apiary. The single unresolved thread remains confirmed stores: six days have passed since the last feeding round, October foraging is essentially closed at these temperatures, and a heft of every hive this week is the most important action before winter.

Across all four hives, a sustained negative correlation between brood temperature and gas resistance (r = -0.53 to -0.94) reflects the well-documented link between active brood rearing and elevated hive VOCs — rising brood pheromones, syrup processing, and fanning all suppress MOX resistance as the thermal footprint expands (Maisonnasse et al. 2010; Stalidzans et al. 2017).

All four hives show consistent daily vibration activity rhythms with afternoon peaks, and the sharply rising barometric tendency (+2.17 hPa/3h) signals clearing conditions ahead — expect foraging activity to resume when daytime highs climb back above 50°F (10°C); outdoor humidity of 25–51% is ventilating through screened floors and pulling in-hive humidity toward the lower end of the healthy band, which is normal October physics for open-bottom Apimaye hives.

• Iris warning Score: 78/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive continues its strong recovery: the 24h average of 93.5°F (34.2°C) with a 3.4°F (1.9°C) swing sits well inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band and holds a ~46°F (25°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — textbook October thermoregulation. Your October 10 log of 1 gallon of 1:1 syrup aligns with the sustained acoustic surge (+11–13 dB above baseline across all bands) and the gas resistance step-down around October 6, both consistent with active syrup processing and brood pheromone buildup; confirmed stores remain the key open item, as telemetry cannot see what is in the cells.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature cycles a modest 3.4°F (1.9°C) peak-to-trough daily — tighter than the healthy-brood 5.4°F (3°C) threshold, confirming active brood clamping — and the 12h short-term trend shows a +2.0°F (1.1°C) rise, consistent with the colony's normal overnight recovery arc. Sound is the standout feature: all 10 bands are elevated +8–13 dB above their all-time baseline, with the dominant rhythm band having shifted from 1500–3600 Hz to 100–150 Hz over the past fortnight — a low-frequency spectral migration consistent with sustained syrup-fanning and brood pheromone activity following the October 10 feed; the 420–500 Hz band shows a mild −1.1 dB late-day dip, within normal variation. Vibration holds its typical 14–25 mG daily arc with a 14/15 day rhythm record; kurtosis at 2.6 is normal (no impact events). Humidity is stable at 54.3% avg — comfortably inside the 50–70% brood-optimal band. Gas resistance at 329 kΩ is slightly below its all-time average of 371 kΩ, consistent with the sustained brood and syrup-processing VOC load since October 6; the heater-scan shape shows a smoothly declining curve from 36,591 kΩ at 100°C to 170 kΩ at 400°C, with no anomalous inflections — a stable VOC fingerprint, not an acute event. The gas daily rhythm has weakened at low heater steps (100–200°C swing dropping from +35–41% to +4–9%) while mid-steps hold, suggesting the moisture-driven component of the gas cycle is damping as October dries the ambient air through the screened floor.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  in-hive temp vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.53

  Deseasonalized residual analysis confirms a genuine coupling (r=-0.53, r=-0.90 controlling for outdoor weather): as Iris's brood temperature rises with recovery, gas resistance falls — driven by expanding brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene), syrup-processing volatiles, and fanning circulation, all benign correlates of an active, growing brood nest (Maisonnasse et al. 2010). The October 6 gas resistance change-point (-92 kΩ step) coincides precisely with the colony's thermal recovery after the early-October starvation event, reinforcing that this is a metabolic signature of recovery, not a disease signal.

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stalidzans et al. 2017
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by weight — six days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Iris on your next visit and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs — a gallon of 1:1 is a dose, not a winter stores target, and October nights are closing the syrup-uptake window; switch to fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars if daytime highs drop below 50°F (10°C)
• Hive #2 warning Score: 72/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 is holding its brood temperature with good precision: the 24h average of 92.1°F (33.4°C) with a 5.3°F (2.9°C) swing is near the lower edge of the ideal band but maintains a clear ~44°F (24°C) warm offset above the outdoor low — the cluster is producing heat normally. Your October 9 inspection and October 10 feeding logs confirm stores were low and the colony received 1 gallon of 1:1 syrup; the 14-day +12.2°F (6.8°C) warming drift reflects genuine brood-nest recovery, and six days without a confirmed feed remains the primary watch item.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature swings 5.3°F (2.9°C) peak-to-trough — just above the 5.4°F (3°C) brood-clamping threshold — with the hourly trace showing a mid-period dip to 88.7°F (31.5°C) before recovering; this mild daily excursion into the lower brood band is worth watching but is consistent with a single-deep colony in an insulated Apimaye box managing a slightly reduced brood mass. Sound is reported against the post-reset baseline only (reset October 4): the current 24h average of -35.6 dBFS with dominant energy in 800–1500 Hz (-29.8 dB) and a broad spectral elevation of +6–10 dB above the post-reset baseline across mid bands represents the current starting baseline — no trend comparison to pre-reset data is valid. Vibration is stable at 13.8 mG avg with kurtosis 3.1 (normal); only 8/15 days showed a distinct daily peak, which is consistent with a single-deep colony with a smaller foraging force. Humidity at 46.8% avg is below the 50–70% brood-optimal band, driven by October's dry ambient (outdoor 25–51%) ventilating through the screened floor — not a desiccation concern at these brood temperatures but worth monitoring if it drops further. Gas resistance at 48.3 kΩ is tracking right at its all-time average of 48.5 kΩ — stable; the heater-scan shape rises slightly from 350°C to 400°C (41 → 51 kΩ), a subtle upturn at the high-temperature steps that is characteristic of this hive's VOC fingerprint and within normal variation. The gas daily rhythm has weakened at low heater steps (100–150°C swing dropping from +35% to +14%), mirroring Iris's pattern and consistent with drying ambient air through the screened floor.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  in-hive temp vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.94

  The strongest deseasonalized correlation in the apiary (r=-0.94, controlling for outdoor weather r=-0.81) shows Hive #2's gas resistance and brood temperature are tightly coupled: as brood rearing recovered from the early-October starvation event, rising metabolic activity (brood pheromones, syrup processing, fanning) suppressed MOX resistance in lockstep. The October 3 gas change-point (-18.5 kΩ step) marks the onset of this recovery; with gas resistance now tracking its all-time average, the VOC environment is consistent with a stable, moderately active brood nest (Maisonnasse et al. 2010).

  📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Seeley 1985
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection — six days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; monitor for a mean slide below 90°F (32.2°C) or a swing widening as the relapse signal

  ⚠️ Issue: 24h temperature swing of 5.3°F (2.9°C) is at the upper edge of tight brood clamping — consistent with a single-deep colony; watch for further widening

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #2 on your next visit and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs for a single-deep colony; if daytime highs drop below 50°F (10°C), switch to fondant or a sugar brick placed directly over the cluster
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 82/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 continues to impress: the 24h average of 93.4°F (34.1°C) with only a 2.7°F (1.5°C) swing is the tightest brood clamping in the apiary, +7.0°F (+3.9°C) above its all-time average of 86.4°F (30.2°C) and squarely in the ideal band with a clear ~45°F (25°C) warm offset above the outdoor low. Your October 9 inspection (low stores, ~60% fondant consumed) and October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup align with the 14-day +7.8°F (4.3°C) warming drift and low-frequency spectral energy rise; confirmed stores remain the key open item.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature oscillates only 2.7°F (1.5°C) peak-to-trough — well below the 5.4°F (3°C) threshold — confirming excellent brood-nest stenothermy; the hourly trace is remarkably stable throughout the 24h window. Sound is reported against the post-reset baseline (reset October 4): the 24h average of -19.6 dBFS with dominant energy in 200–260 Hz (-14.8 dB avg) and 260–350 Hz (-14.9 dB avg) is this hive's current baseline — the per-band deltas vs the all-time average are a modest +0.7 to +2.0 dB, the smallest spectral elevation in the apiary, consistent with a well-settled colony; sound is trending slightly down in the second half of the day across the 100–500 Hz bands (-1.0 to -1.8 dB), a normal late-period lull. Vibration averages 15.8 mG with a 11/15 daily rhythm record; kurtosis at 3.6 is normal. Humidity at 48.4% avg sits just below the 50–70% optimal band — same October dry-ambient ventilation physics as the other hives, not a concern at these temperatures. Gas resistance at 394 kΩ is slightly below its all-time average of 421 kΩ but well within normal variation; the heater-scan shape mirrors Iris's smooth declining profile, and the gas daily rhythm is weakening at low heater steps (100°C swing falling from +41% to +9%) consistent with drying seasonal air. The Colony-State Index PCA is falling over the window — driven by the gas resistance channel — which is consistent with slowly decreasing syrup-processing activity as the October 10 dose is consumed.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound energy vs in-hive temp (14d) | r = +0.69

  Controlling for outdoor temperature, Hive #1's sound energy and brood temperature are positively coupled (r=+0.69): as the colony rebuilt its brood nest from the early-October starvation baseline toward the current 93–94°F (34°C) range, acoustic energy rose in parallel — a well-documented relationship where a larger, more active brood nest generates more worker activity noise (Kleinhenz et al. 2003; Ramsey et al. 2020); this is a healthy recovery signature, not an alarm signal.

  📚 Reference: Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol., Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep.
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection — six days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #1 on your next visit and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs; the stable temperature is encouraging but cannot tell you what is in the cells, and October is shortening the syrup-uptake window
• Hive #3 warning Score: 75/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 is the warmest and acoustically most active hive in the apiary: the 24h average of 96.0°F (35.5°C) with a tight 1.9°F (1.1°C) swing sits at the warm end of the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band with a ~48°F (27°C) offset above the outdoor low, and the 14-day +25°F (13.9°C) warming drift reflects the colony's full recovery from the early-October starvation event. Your October 9 inspection noted the pollen patty and fondant were almost entirely consumed, and the October 10 log confirms only a half-gallon of 1:1 syrup — the smallest dose in the apiary while the colony continues consuming protein; confirmed stores and carbohydrate sufficiency remain the primary watch item.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature is exceptionally stable at 96.0°F (35.5°C) avg with only a 1.9°F (1.1°C) peak-to-trough swing — the tightest thermal clamping in the apiary — consistent with an active brood nest in the upper box. Sound is reported against the post-reset baseline (reset October 4): the 24h average of -12.2 dBFS with dominant energy in 260–350 Hz (-5.5 dB avg) is this hive's current acoustic baseline; per-band deltas vs the all-time average are +2.0 to +5.1 dB, with the largest elevation in the 260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band — consistent with a strong, active colony; the 500–600 Hz band is trending up +1.5 dB in the second half of the day, a minor uptick worth noting but within normal colony activity variation. Vibration is the most active in the apiary: 21.3 mG avg with a 12/15 daily rhythm record peaking at ~67.3 mG — the wide intraday range (14.6–67.3 mG) reflects vigorous fanning and foraging cycles; kurtosis at 2.8 is normal. Humidity at 42.2% avg is the driest in the apiary — driven by October dry ambient through the screened floor and the upper-box sensor placement — and sits just above the 40% desiccation-risk threshold; worth monitoring but not yet a concern given the warm brood temperature. Gas resistance at 103 kΩ is right at its all-time average of 106 kΩ — stable; the heater-scan shape shows a smooth decline from 4,988 kΩ at 100°C to 85 kΩ at 375°C then a slight upturn to 93 kΩ at 400°C, a characteristic fingerprint for this hive that has been present since the October 3 gas change-point (-54 kΩ step). The gas daily rhythm remains strong across all 10 heater steps (6/6 vibration bands also cycling), though the low-temperature step rhythms are weakening (100°C swing falling from +83% to +41%) — consistent with the seasonal ambient drying reducing moisture-driven low-step oscillations.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound energy vs in-hive temp (14d) | r = +0.8

  Hive #3 shows the strongest sound-temperature coupling in the apiary (r=+0.80, controlling for outdoor weather): the 25°F (13.9°C) temperature recovery over 14 days is mirrored by a +2.5 dBFS acoustic energy rise, with the 260–350 Hz colony-fundamental band now the dominant spectral feature — reflecting a fully re-engaged, brood-rearing colony whose heater-bee activity and worker traffic are acoustically visible (Kleinhenz et al. 2003); the pollen patty is sustaining elevated brood demand, which is the mechanistic driver of both the warm core and the elevated sound energy.

  📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Kleinhenz et al. 2003, J. Exp. Biol.
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed — only a half-gallon of 1:1 syrup on October 10 while the colony continues consuming a pollen patty; Hive #3 has the highest carbohydrate demand in the apiary and received the smallest dose six days ago

  ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 42.2% — just above the 40% larval desiccation threshold; monitor for further drying as October ambient humidity drops

  ▹ Action: Heft Hive #3 first on your next visit — it received the smallest feeding dose while sustaining the warmest, most active brood nest, making it the most likely candidate for a carbohydrate shortfall; feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs

  ▹ Action: Ensure sugar is supplied in bulk alongside any remaining pollen patty — protein without adequate carbohydrate deepens the deficit, as a brood nest running at 96°F (35.6°C) is the most metabolically expensive state a colony can maintain