AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-15

Multi-sensor colony health analysis · 2026-10-15 warning
🐝 Apiary Overview

As of October 15, 2026, all four hives are holding solid brood-band temperatures in the 93–96°F (34–36°C) range — a genuine recovery from the starvation event of early October — and both Hive #2 and Hive #3 batteries have recovered significantly overnight. The one thread that remains unresolved across the whole apiary is confirmed stores: five days have passed since the last feeding round, October is shortening the foraging window to near zero at 48°F (8.9°C) outdoor lows, and a heft of every hive this week is the single most important action before winter.

🔬 Featured Apiary Correlation

Across all three hives with intact pre-reset acoustic histories, the 14-day warming drift from the low-20s °C to the brood band correlates tightly with a spectral shift toward lower frequencies (100–260 Hz gaining +8–12 dB), consistent with the syrup-processing and brood-pheromone VOC signature described by Maisonnasse et al. 2010 and the fanning-band acoustic buildup documented in Ferrari et al. 2008 — the colony is doing exactly what a refueling, brood-expanding colony should do in October.

🌅 Featured Apiary Diurnal Patterns

All four hives show consistent daily vibration activity rhythms (9–14 of 15 days with distinct afternoon peaks), and outdoor conditions of 47–68°F (8–20°C) at 22–51% RH are pulling in-hive humidity toward the lower end of the healthy band through the screened floors — normal ventilation physics for open-bottom Apimaye hives in October; the rising barometric tendency (+1.31 hPa/3h) points to improving foraging conditions ahead.

📋 Per-Hive Analysis
  • Iris healthy Score: 78/100
    📋 Overall Health

    Your Iris hive is in excellent shape: the 24h average of 93.4°F (34.1°C) with a 4.7°F (2.6°C) swing sits comfortably in the ideal brood band and holds a 46°F (25°C) warm offset above the 48°F (8.9°C) outdoor low — textbook thermoregulation for a well-populated October colony. Your October 10 log of 1 gallon of 1:1 syrup lines up with the continued +12.1 dBFS acoustic surge over 14 days and the gas resistance step-down around October 6, both consistent with active syrup processing and brood pheromone buildup; telemetry cannot confirm what is in the cells, so a heft on your next visit remains the key open item.

    🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

    Temperature oscillates a healthy 4.7°F (2.6°C) peak-to-trough within the brood band, with a mild cool dip in the lower hours of the window (low 90.2°F/32.3°C) that recovered cleanly — well within the R≈6.93 insulated enclosure's expected behavior. Humidity is steady at 53–56% average, at the ideal midpoint of the 50–70% brood range. Vibration shows a clear daily rhythm (14/15 days, baseline ~16.5 mG rising to ~24.7 mG peaks) anchored at 80–120 Hz; kurtosis at 2.7 is slightly below the 3.0 norm, indicating smooth, undisturbed colony activity. Sound is extremely active at -11.1 dBFS average, +12.3 dBFS above the all-time baseline across all bands — dominated by the 260–350 Hz colony fundamental with strong 100–260 Hz fanning/processing energy; the spectral rhythm shift toward 420–500 Hz in the second half of the window is worth watching but consistent with normal afternoon foraging wind-down. Gas heater-scan shows the curve shape has flattened noticeably at the low-temperature steps (100–200°C down 23–25% over the window) while high-temperature steps hold — a shift in the type of volatiles present, most consistent with syrup processing and brood pheromones rather than a benign cause shift, corroborated by the gas resistance change-point around October 6.

    🔬 Correlations & Discoveries
    gas_resistance vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = -0.85
    As brood-nest temperature climbed from the low-20s °C back to 34–35°C over the past two weeks, gas resistance fell by ~97k Ohms (change-point ~Oct 6) — a tight inverse coupling (r=-0.85, controlling for outdoor weather) that reflects the rising VOC load of active brood-pheromone production (E-β-ocimene scales with larval density) and syrup processing; this is a healthy metabolic signal, not a distress indicator, and is the chemical fingerprint of a colony ramping its brood nest.
    📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stalidzans et al. 2017
    sound_energy vs sound_spectrum_260_350hz (14d) | r = +0.94
    The 14-day +12.1 dBFS acoustic surge is concentrated in the 100–350 Hz colony fundamental and fanning bands (+12–15 dB above all-time baseline), consistent with a growing, metabolically active brood nest driving both increased population hum and fanning effort; the spectral shift strengthening in the 420–500 Hz band late in the window is within normal foraging-activity variation and does not yet constitute a piping signature.
    📚 Reference: Ferrari et al. 2008, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep.
    ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by weight — five days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves.
    ▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Iris and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs — a gallon of 1:1 is a dose, not a winter stores target; switch to 2:1 concentration as October nights cool further.
  • Hive #2 warning Score: 72/100
    📋 Overall Health

    Your Hive #2 is holding its brood temperature with excellent precision — the 24h average of 94.1°F (34.5°C) with only a 2.7°F (1.5°C) swing and a flat hourly trace is textbook brood-nest clamping, holding a 46°F (25°C) warm offset above the outdoor low; your October 9 inspection and October 10 feeding logs confirm the colony was low on stores and received a gallon of 1:1 syrup, and the 14-day +12.6°F (7°C) warming drift reflects genuine brood-nest recovery. The watch flag is retained because stores were confirmed low five days ago and telemetry cannot see what is in the cells; the battery has recovered well, charging +90 mV overnight to 3934 mV, which eases the concern flagged yesterday.

    🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

    Temperature is extremely stable — 93.0–95.7°F (33.9–35.4°C) over 24h, a 2.7°F (1.5°C) swing that reflects both strong brood clamping and the R≈6.93 insulated enclosure's thermal buffering. Humidity averaged 51.4%, at the lower end of the healthy 50–70% range — October's dry ambient (22–51% RH outdoors) ventilating through the screened floor; the in-hive humidity tracks temperature inversely (r=+0.54 deconfounded) in a classic psychrometric relationship, not a desiccation concern. Sound is established as a new post-reset baseline at -38.6 dBFS average; per the sound baseline reset, no before/after comparison is made — the current spectrum with dominant energy in the 800–1500 Hz band (+4–7 dB above new baseline) is the starting reference going forward. Vibration averages 0.0149 g with a daily rhythm on 9/15 days (peaks to ~26.7 mG); kurtosis 3.2 is normal; all bands trended down in the second half of the window, consistent with late-session foraging wind-down. Gas heater-scan: resistance is at 45.3k Ohms, close to the all-time average of 48.9k Ohms; the curve shows a moderate daily rhythm (strongest at 400°C, +24% swing) with low-temperature steps (100–200°C) down 16–18% over the window — a modest shift consistent with syrup processing and brood activity.

    🔬 Correlations & Discoveries
    in_hive_temp vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.94
    The strongest deconfounded correlation in this hive (r=-0.94, p=8.2e-10) shows gas resistance falling as brood-nest temperature rises — a near-perfect inverse that reflects the combined VOC load of syrup processing, brood pheromone production, and fanning activity all scaling together with the colony's metabolic ramp-up; the gas change-point around October 3 aligns with the temperature recovery, confirming both signals describe the same biological event.
    📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Seeley 1985
    in_hive_humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.72
    A significant humidity–gas coupling (r=-0.72) independent of outdoor weather indicates that as the colony increases fanning and syrup-processing activity (raising in-hive humidity slightly), the circulating volatiles push the MOX resistance lower — a healthy metabolic signature of an active brood nest, consistent with the hygroregulation dynamics described by Human et al. 2006.
    📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors
    ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection — five days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; monitor for a mean slide below 92°F (33.3°C) or a swing widening as the relapse signal.
    ▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Hive #2 and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs; the battery has recovered to 3934 mV and is no longer an urgent item, but keep an eye on it — recharge when convenient.
  • Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100
    📋 Overall Health

    Your Hive #1 continues its impressive run — the 24h average of 94.5°F (34.7°C) with only a 1.6°F (0.9°C) swing and a perfectly flat hourly trace is the tightest brood clamping in the apiary, +8.7°F (+4.8°C) above its all-time average of 85.8°F (29.9°C) and squarely in the ideal band; your October 9 inspection (low stores, ~60% fondant consumed) and October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup log align with the 14-day +13°F (7.2°C) warming drift, and the battery has charged strongly to 4134 mV overnight. Stores remain the key open item — telemetry cannot confirm what is in the cells, and five days have passed since the last feed.

    🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

    Temperature oscillates only 1.6°F (0.9°C) peak-to-trough — the flattest trace in the apiary and well within the healthy <5.4°F (3°C) brood-clamping threshold; the insulated R≈6.93 enclosure reinforces this stability. Humidity averaged 51.7%, healthy and stable within 50–53% across the window — slightly dry from October ambient, not a concern. Sound is established as a new post-reset baseline at -18.5 dBFS average; per the sound baseline reset, no before/after comparison is made — dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz colony fundamental (-13.3 dB), with all bands +1–4 dB above the new post-reset baseline trending modestly upward. Vibration averages 0.0163 g with a daily rhythm on 11/15 days (peaks to ~22.4 mG); kurtosis 3.1 is normal; dominant band is 80–120 Hz with the low-frequency 5–20 Hz band showing a circadian rhythm shift in the second half — consistent with normal DVAV activity documented by Nieh & Tautz 2000. Gas heater-scan: resistance at 364.5k Ohms, near the all-time average of 427.5k Ohms; mid-temperature steps (200–250°C) down 14–16% over the window with the low-temperature steps (100–150°C) down as well, while high steps hold — a mild shift in volatile composition consistent with syrup processing and brood pheromones, corroborated by the colony's known feeding history.

    🔬 Correlations & Discoveries
    sound_energy vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = +0.7
    A strong partial correlation between sound energy and brood-nest temperature controlling for outdoor weather (r=+0.70) confirms that the colony's acoustic output scales with its metabolic state — as the brood nest warmed from the low-20s °C back to the ideal band, the population hum and fanning noise rose in lockstep, a healthy sign of a colony rebuilding its brood and activity levels.
    📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Ferrari et al. 2008
    gas_resistance vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = -0.71
    Gas resistance falls as brood-nest temperature rises (r=-0.71, hive-specific after deconfounding outdoor weather), reflecting the expected increase in brood pheromones and syrup-processing volatiles as the colony's metabolic rate recovers; the PCA colony-state index is currently falling, consistent with the colony stabilizing at its new brood-band setpoint rather than still accelerating.
    📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stalidzans et al. 2017
    ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection — five days since the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup; telemetry cannot confirm adequate winter reserves.
    ▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Hive #1 and feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs — the stable temperature is encouraging but cannot tell you what is in the cells.
  • Hive #3 warning Score: 74/100
    📋 Overall Health

    Your Hive #3 is the warmest hive in the apiary at 95.8°F (35.4°C) average with a tight 3.5°F (1.9°C) swing — solidly in the ideal brood band and holding a 47°F (26°C) warm offset above the outdoor low; the battery has recovered strongly, charging +226 mV overnight to 3832 mV and is no longer at the urgent threshold flagged yesterday. Your October 10 log confirms only a half-gallon of 1:1 syrup while the colony continues consuming the pollen patty, meaning carbohydrate demand remains elevated — stores remain the primary watch item, and the humidity at 41.5% average is the driest in the apiary, driven by October's dry ambient and the upper-box sensor placement; worth watching but not yet a desiccation concern.

    🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

    Temperature averages 95.8°F (35.5°C) with a 3.5°F (2.0°C) swing — slightly wider than Hive #1 but well within the healthy brood-clamping threshold, consistent with the upper-box sensor position being closer to the cluster's warm periphery. Humidity averaged 41.5%, at the lower edge of the healthy range (50–70%) and nudging the 40% larval-desiccation advisory floor — October outdoor humidity of 22–51% and the open screened floor explain this entirely, but worth monitoring. Sound is established as a new post-reset baseline at -12.7 dBFS average; per the sound baseline reset, no before/after comparison is made — dominant energy concentrated in the 260–350 Hz fundamental (-6.5 dB) and 200–260 Hz fanning band, with a full daily acoustic cycle in all 10 bands; the spectral rhythm shift from the 1500–3600 Hz band toward 260–350 Hz in the second half of the window reflects normal foraging-wind-down and should not be read as a colony-state change. Vibration averages 0.0235 g — the highest in the apiary — with a strong daily rhythm on 12/15 days (peaks to ~34.9 mG, avg 1.8×); kurtosis 3.6 is normal; the 5–20 Hz and 20–50 Hz bands trending up in the second half of the window matches the expected nocturnal DVAV rhythm documented by Nieh & Tautz 2000. Gas heater-scan: resistance at 98.6k Ohms, near the all-time average of 105.8k Ohms; the high-temperature steps (350–400°C) are down 12–14% over the window while low-temperature steps also modestly lower — a mild, broad-spectrum shift consistent with ongoing syrup and pollen-patty processing.

    🔬 Correlations & Discoveries
    sound_energy vs in_hive_temp (14d) | r = +0.79
    The strongest sound–temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r=+0.79 controlling for outdoor weather) reflects that Hive #3's acoustic output tracks its metabolic intensity closely — the 14-day warming drift of +24.2°F (+13.4°C) back to the brood band has been accompanied by a parallel acoustic buildup, and the colony-state PCA index is rising, indicating continued metabolic expansion driven by brood rearing on the pollen patty.
    📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep., Ferrari et al. 2008
    in_hive_temp vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.7
    A synchronized change-point on both temperature (+12°C step ~Oct 3) and gas resistance (-62k Ohms step ~Oct 3) confirms the colony's metabolic recovery from starvation was a genuine, rapid physiological event — the falling gas resistance reflects the VOC load of pollen-patty consumption, brood-pheromone production, and syrup processing all rising together as the brood nest re-ignited (Maisonnasse et al. 2010).
    📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Seeley 1985
    ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection — only a half-gallon of 1:1 syrup on October 10 while the colony continues consuming a pollen patty; this hive has elevated carbohydrate demand and received the smallest dose — five days since last feeding.
    ⚠️ Issue: In-hive humidity averaging 41.5% — at the lower edge of the healthy range, driven by October dry ambient through the screened floor; monitor for further drying as outdoor humidity drops.
    ▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Hive #3 first — it received the smallest feeding dose while rearing brood on a pollen patty, making it the most likely candidate for relapse; feed bulk 2:1 sugar syrup toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs.
    ▹ Action: If feeding syrup while carbohydrates are potentially low, ensure sugar is supplied in bulk alongside the pollen patty — protein without adequate carbohydrate deepens the deficit, as the brood furnace running at 96°F (35.6°C) is the most expensive thing the colony does.