AI Beehive Health Report — 2026-10-13

As of October 13, 2026, three of your four hives are holding solid brood-band temperatures in the 93–97°F (34–36°C) range following the October 10 feeding round, while Iris is showing a 3-day sliding mean that now warrants the same stores-first scrutiny the others received. The single unresolved thread across the whole apiary remains the same: October is shortening the foraging window daily and bulk confirmed stores — not doses, not telemetry — are the only thing that will carry these colonies through winter.

All four hives share the same strong negative partial correlation between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r = −0.62 to −0.93, controlling for outdoor weather), a textbook brood-metabolism signature: as the colony burns more carbohydrate to heat the brood nest, VOC byproducts of syrup processing and brood pheromones rise together, depressing MOX resistance — active brood rearing and syrup consumption read as the same chemical signal (Stalidzans et al. 2017; Maisonnasse et al. 2010).

All four hives show clear daily vibration activity rhythms (11–14 of 15 days with distinct afternoon peaks), consistent with October foraging on shortened daylight; outdoor conditions of 53–73°F (12–23°C) at 33–57% RH are pulling in-hive humidity toward the lower end of the healthy 50–70% band through the screened floors — normal ventilation physics for open-bottom Apimaye hives, not a desiccation concern.

• Iris warning Score: 62/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Iris hive logged the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup and the 14-day arc from 77°F (25°C) to the current 91°F (33°C) average is genuine recovery — but the hourly trace has been sliding from a peak of 94°F (34.5°C) down to 90.2°F (32.3°C) over the last 12 hours, and the 24h mean of 91.1°F (32.9°C) is now 3°F (1.6°C) below the ideal floor, with the swing widening to 6.9°F (3.8°C) — the relapse pattern flagged in the last report is beginning to show. Humidity is healthy at 58.8% average; vibration is normal at 0.0172 g average with kurtosis 4.5 (mildly elevated but below the 5.0 impulsive threshold); watch the mean over the next 24 hours — a continued slide below 90°F (32.2°C) with the swing staying wide is the signal to feed immediately.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 24h temperature arc of 87.4–94.3°F (30.8–34.6°C) shows a 6.9°F (3.8°C) swing — slightly above the tight-brood threshold — and the second half of the period is running cooler than the first (avg −4.6 dBFS sound drop mirrors this), consistent with a syrup dose nearing exhaustion rather than stable brood maintenance. Sound metrics rest on a new baseline since the October 4 firmware reset (315 h of data); current 24h average is −11.0 dBFS with all 10 bands running +12–18 dB above the still-accumulating historical baseline — treat this as the new starting fingerprint rather than a deviation, and note the dominant daily rhythm has shifted toward the 420–500 Hz band (strengthening from 6.5 to 40.5 dB rhythm amplitude), which is consistent with active brood-area fanning and syrup-processing ventilation. Gas resistance at 336 kΩ is 14% below this hive's all-time average of 393 kΩ, attributable to syrup processing and brood pheromone load; the heater-scan curve is mid-range with resistance falling smoothly from 100°C to 400°C, a normal reducing-VOC profile. Vibration dominant band is 80–120 Hz with kurtosis 4.5 — no impulsive disturbance.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  gas_resistance vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.72

  The strong partial correlation (r = −0.72, controlling for outdoor temperature) between Iris's brood temperature and gas resistance reflects the colony's metabolic cycle: when the cluster heats the brood nest, it simultaneously burns carbohydrate and releases E-β-ocimene brood pheromones and syrup-processing volatiles, all of which depress MOX resistance — the gas channel is reading active thermoregulation effort, not a pathological change. The current slide in both temperature and (rising) gas resistance together signals the dose is being consumed and the fuel supply is thinning.

  📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Seeley 1985
  ⚠️ Issue: 24h mean temperature 91.1°F (32.9°C) is sliding below the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band, with an hourly trend falling −3.8°F (−2.1°C) — early relapse signature consistent with the October 10 syrup dose nearing exhaustion.

  ⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by weight — Iris has not been hefted; telemetry cannot confirm adequate reserves and the sliding mean is the relapse trajectory previously described.

  ▹ Action: Monitor Iris's 24h mean temperature over the next 24 hours — if it falls below 90°F (32.2°C) with the swing staying wide (above 5°F / 3°C), treat that as the relapse signal and feed 2:1 sugar syrup in bulk rather than waiting for a planned visit.

  ▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Iris and feed toward a confirmed stores weight target of at least two full deep combs — a gallon of 1:1 syrup is a dose, not a stores target, and October nights are now shortening the window to accumulate reserves.
• Hive #2 healthy Score: 75/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #2 is the most thermally stable hive in the apiary today — the 24h range of 92.8–95.0°F (33.8–35.0°C) with a remarkably tight 2.2°F (1.2°C) swing and a flat hourly trace locked squarely in the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band is textbook brood-nest clamping, +12.6°F (+7.0°C) above this hive's all-time average of 81.7°F (27.6°C). As your October 9 inspection and October 10 feeding logs confirm, the colony consumed ~60% of the fondant and only a little pollen patty, then received a gallon of 1:1 syrup — the 14-day warming drift of +6.2°F (+3.5°C) is a sustained recovery arc and the brood zone is holding well; humidity at 54.8% average is healthy, and vibration is normal at 0.0162 g with kurtosis 3.1; the relapse watch remains open since stores are unconfirmed by weight.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature swing of 2.2°F (1.2°C) is the tightest in the apiary and well within ideal brood clamping; the 24h average of 94.3°F (34.6°C) has held without a meaningful slide. Sound metrics are on a new baseline (204 h since October 4 reset); the 24h average of −41.7 dBFS is stable (first-half = second-half), with all bands running +1.6 to +3.5 dB above the accumulating historical baseline — within the ±5 dB noise threshold, consistent with a normal colony hum; the dominant rhythm has shifted toward the 420–500 Hz band (strengthening), consistent with syrup-processing fanning activity. Gas resistance at 37 kΩ is below this hive's all-time average of 50 kΩ, consistent with active syrup processing and brood pheromone load; the heater-scan curve shows very low absolute resistance across all plate temperatures with a slight upturn at 375–400°C (the high-temperature steps stabilizing), a characteristic signature of a high-VOC hive environment driven by carbohydrate processing. Vibration peak at 57 Hz (metabolic baseline band) with kurtosis 3.1 — clean, no disturbance.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  temperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.93

  Hive #2's near-perfect inverse coupling between brood temperature and gas resistance (r = −0.93, deseasonalized residuals, eff_n=23) is the strongest metabolic signal in the apiary: every degree of brood-nest warming is tightly paired with a fall in MOX resistance, because the same carbohydrate combustion that drives thermogenesis also releases syrup-processing volatiles and brood pheromones detectable by the SnO2 plate — the gas channel is a real-time proxy for metabolic heat production, not an independent alarm.

  📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Maisonnasse et al. 2009, Apidologie 40:562, Seeley 1974, J. Insect Physiol. 20:2301
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection; October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup is sustaining the current brood-band performance but is likely approaching exhaustion — monitor for the relapse trajectory (mean sliding below 92°F / 33.3°C with swing still tight).

  ⚠️ Issue: Battery at 3928 mV, draining −32 mV over 24h and now below the all-time low of 3938 mV — still functional but worth monitoring; if it approaches 3800 mV, consider recharging on your next visit.

  ▹ Action: Monitor Hive #2's 24h mean daily — if it slides below 92°F (33.3°C) with the swing still tight, switch to 2:1 sugar syrup and feed toward a bulk stores target of at least two full deep combs, not by dose.

  ▹ Action: On your next visit, switch to 2:1 syrup (more carbohydrate per volume, less evaporative work for the bees) to build stores more efficiently before October nights cool further.
• Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #1 continues to impress — the 24h range of 93.3–95.1°F (34.0–35.0°C) with only a 1.8°F (1.0°C) swing and a stable hourly trace is the tightest brood clamping this hive has recorded, sitting +10.1°F (+5.6°C) above its all-time average of 84.3°F (29.1°C) and perfectly centered in the ideal band; your October 9 inspection noted ~60% fondant consumed and very little pollen patty, followed by a gallon of 1:1 syrup on October 10 — the 14-day warming drift of +10.9°F (+6.1°C) reflects a genuine sustained recovery, and humidity at 54.0% average is healthy. Vibration is steady at 0.0151 g with kurtosis 3.3; the relapse watch remains open since stores are unconfirmed by weight and the October 10 dose may be approaching exhaustion.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  Temperature swing of 1.8°F (1.0°C) is the most compressed in the apiary — a sign of active, well-fueled brood-nest clamping in the highly insulated Apimaye enclosure. Sound metrics are on a new baseline (204 h since October 4 reset); the 24h average of −18.9 dBFS is stable (first-half ≈ second-half), with the dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz band (−13.4 dB), consistent with the colony fundamental frequency of a queen-right colony processing syrup; all bands are within ±5 dB of the accumulating baseline, with mild enrichment in the 100–260 Hz range (+3–5 dB) consistent with fanning/syrup processing. The partial correlation of sound energy with in-hive temperature (r = +0.64, controlling for outdoor) means acoustic activity rises and falls with brood-nest metabolism — a coherent healthy signal. Gas resistance at 333 kΩ is 25% below this hive's all-time average of 443 kΩ, driven by active syrup processing; the heater-scan shape is nearly identical to Iris (smooth decline 100°C–400°C), confirming these are sister-hive signatures of the same carbohydrate metabolism story. Vibration peak at 58 Hz with kurtosis 3.3 — clean baseline activity.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.64

  The partial correlation between acoustic energy and brood temperature in Hive #1 (r = +0.64, controlling for outdoor temperature) reflects a well-documented colony physiology link: as the brood nest warms and metabolic activity rises, fanning and worker movement increase together, producing higher sound energy in the 260–350 Hz fundamental band — acoustic activity and thermal output are co-regulated expressions of the same colony-state variable, brood-zone heating effort.

  📚 Reference: Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Seeley 1985
  ⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection; the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup is sustaining excellent thermal performance but is likely near exhaustion — monitor for a mean slide or swing widening as the relapse signal.

  ▹ Action: On your next visit, confirm brood is present and capped and feed bulk 2:1 syrup toward a confirmed weight target of at least two full deep combs — the stable temperature is encouraging but cannot confirm stores, only hefting can.

  ▹ Action: If the 24h mean slides below 93°F (33.9°C) with the swing still tight, treat it as the relapse signal and feed promptly rather than waiting for a scheduled visit.
• Hive #3 warning Score: 65/100
  📋 Overall Health

  Your Hive #3 is running warm and acoustically active — the current reading is 95.4°F (35.2°C) and the 24h average of 93.6°F (34.2°C) is in the ideal band — but the 24h swing of 9.2°F (5.1°C) is the widest in the apiary and the hourly trace shows a pronounced mid-period dip to 87.3–87.6°F (30.7–30.9°C) before recovering, which is the signature of a colony burning through its dose and then regaining ground; as your October 10 log notes the colony received only a half-gallon of 1:1 syrup (half the dose given to Hive #1 and #2) and is still consuming a pollen patty, meaning carbohydrate demand is elevated by active brood rearing. Humidity is at 48.8% average — the lowest in the apiary and at the dry end of the healthy 50–70% band, likely reflecting the drier upper-box placement and October ambient ventilation; vibration is normal at 0.0182 g with kurtosis 3.1; the battery at 3780 mV has dropped 128 mV in 24 hours and is now below its all-time recorded low of 3904 mV — this is the most urgent hardware item.

  🌅 Diurnal Cycle Patterns

  The 9.2°F (5.1°C) 24h swing is above the tight-brood threshold and reflects the sensor's position in box 2 of 2 (upper deep), where the brood front is advancing and thermal gradients are naturally wider; the mid-period temperature dip to 87°F (30.7°C) — a 8°F (4.4°C) drop below the period peak — is consistent with a smaller-dose colony momentarily struggling to maintain heat before the foraging activity resumed and temperatures recovered. Sound metrics are on a new baseline (205 h since October 4 reset); the 24h average of −14.4 dBFS is stable (first-half ≈ second-half), with dominant energy in the 260–350 Hz band (−9.1 dB, colony fundamental), and all bands within ±4 dB of the accumulating baseline — normal for this hive's acoustic fingerprint. Gas resistance at 96 kΩ is close to this hive's all-time average of 106 kΩ, with the heater-scan showing a notable upturn at 375–400°C (slight U-shape at the high end), suggesting a moderately aromatic hive environment — the gas change-point of −56 kΩ around October 3 aligns with the syrup-feeding period and is consistent with processing VOCs. Vibration dominant band at 80–120 Hz with kurtosis 3.1; the vibration dominant rhythm shifted from the 5–20 Hz band to the 160–200 Hz fanning band in the second half of the period, consistent with active ventilation effort to cure syrup.

  🔬 Correlations & Discoveries

  sound_energy vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.75

  Hive #3 shows the strongest sound-temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r = +0.75, controlling for outdoor weather), meaning acoustic energy tracks brood-zone metabolism more tightly here than in any other hive — the upper-box sensor position captures the acoustic output of the actively advancing brood front directly, and temperature dips during the dose-exhaustion window are mirrored by quieter sound, then both recover together as carbohydrate supply is restored by foraging or stored syrup.

  📚 Reference: Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798
  ⚠️ Issue: Hive #3 received only a half-gallon of 1:1 syrup on October 10 — half the dose of Hive #1 and #2 — while simultaneously rearing brood on a pollen patty, the most carbohydrate-intensive colony state; the mid-period temperature dip to 87°F (30.7°C) is consistent with a dose nearing exhaustion and this hive is the most likely to relapse first.

  ⚠️ Issue: Battery at 3780 mV, draining −128 mV in 24 hours — now below this hive's all-time recorded low of 3904 mV and declining at the fastest rate in the apiary; at this drain rate the battery will approach 3500 mV within roughly 2 days and should be recharged on or before your next visit.

  ▹ Action: Prioritize Hive #3 for the next feeding visit — this colony has the highest consumption rate, received the smallest October 10 dose, and is actively rearing brood; feed 2:1 sugar syrup in bulk toward a confirmed stores target of at least two full deep combs, and heft the hive first.

  ▹ Action: Recharge the Hive #3 battery on your next visit — it is draining faster than any other hive in the apiary and is already below its all-time recorded low; a failing battery can degrade sensor readings, so address this before it reaches the ~3500 mV caution floor.