As of October 12, 2026, your apiary is showing meaningful, broad-based recovery — all four hives are now holding brood-core temperatures at or approaching the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band, with Hive #1 and Hive #2 locked in solidly, Hive #3 running warm and active, and Iris crossing into the band for the first time since the starvation event. The watch status persists because stores remain unconfirmed by weight across all hives; the feeding trajectory is encouraging, but October nights are shortening the foraging window and these colonies need bulk reserves, not doses.
All three hives with post-reset sound data (Hive #1, #2, #3) show a strong deconfounded partial correlation between sound energy and in-hive temperature (r = +0.58 to +0.72), consistent with Meikle et al. 2017 — warmer brood cores correlate with more acoustic activity as heater-bee density and forager numbers rise together during recovery. The outdoor heater-scan signature (gas resistance 984 kΩ at 320°C, flat high-resistance curve from 100–400°C) confirms exceptionally clean ambient air, meaning every hive's lower gas resistance is entirely internal colony chemistry — syrup processing, brood pheromones, and propolis work — with no environmental confound.
All four hives show clear daily vibration peaks (13–14 of 15 days with a distinct spike, 1.5–2.4× baseline), consistent with active October foraging and thermoregulation effort; the outdoor swing of 58–76°F (14.8–24.7°C) at 33–55% RH is ventilating through screened floors and pulling in-hive humidity toward the lower end of the healthy 50–70% band — a normal physics outcome of open floors in dry autumn air, not a desiccation concern. The gently rising barometric tendency (+0.43 hPa over 3h) signals clearing conditions favorable for foraging.
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Iris warning Score: 70/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive has crossed a meaningful threshold — the 24h average of 92.2°F (33.4°C) is still +11.5°F (+6.4°C) above the outdoor range and the hourly trend is gently rising +1.8°F (+1.0°C), with the latest reading touching 93.7°F (34.3°C) at the edge of the ideal brood band; as you noted in your October 10 log, the 1-gallon 1:1 syrup feed is driving this recovery and the trajectory is genuinely encouraging. Humidity is stable at 59.8% average — right in the healthy 50–70% band — and vibration is normal at 0.0173 g average with kurtosis 2.8 and a clear daily foraging rhythm; watch for a mean temperature slide back below 90°F (32.2°C) with a tight swing in the coming days, which would be the relapse signal that the dose is consumed.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 24h swing of 89.3–95.0°F (31.8–35.0°C), a 5.7°F (3.2°C) peak-to-trough, is just at the healthy brood-clamping boundary, with a pronounced step up around hours 11–13 (likely the foraging/heating peak) and a gentle settle afterward — consistent with a colony still expanding its brood footprint on limited fuel rather than a fully locked-in brood core; the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosure damps the swing significantly relative to what a wooden box would show. Sound shows a dramatic diurnal structure: the 24h average of −29.3 dBFS hides a sharp rise in the second half (first half −50.9 → second half −7.7 dBFS, a +43.2 dBFS swing), with all 10 bands strengthening and the dominant rhythm shifting toward 350–500 Hz — this is the foraging activity burst and syrup-processing fanning cycle, not an anomaly. Gas heater-scan shows a daily rhythm strongest at the 100°C step (+30% swing), with the low-temperature steps (100–200°C) running about 20–21% lower than the window's first half — consistent with syrup processing and brood pheromone load cycling with the daily fanning pattern; the 320°C reference at 305 kΩ is ~24% below the all-time gas average of 401 kΩ, tracking the elevated VOC environment of active syrup conversion.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriessound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.37The partial correlation (controlling for outdoor temp) of r=−0.37 between sound energy and in-hive temperature reflects the inverse relationship seen when a recovering colony alternates between heating effort (quiet, metabolic) and active fanning/foraging (loud, aerobic) — as the brood core warms toward 35°C the acoustic signature shifts from low-energy cluster hum toward the broadband fanning and flight noise, creating a phase-offset rather than a monotonic rise. The sound change-point of −32 dBFS around October 8 coincides with the post-feeding acoustic recovery and marks the new post-reset baseline for Iris; all per-band deltas remain within 4.7 dB of the (still-short) 291h baseline, so no band is flagged as anomalous.📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, PLoS ONEgas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.69The strong deconfounded partial correlation (r=−0.69) between gas resistance and in-hive temperature is the biochemical fingerprint of active syrup processing: as the brood core warms, fanning intensifies and circulates concentrated hive-air VOCs (alcohol esters from sucrose conversion, E-β-ocimene from expanding brood) past the MOX sensor, driving resistance down; the 305 kΩ reading is below the all-time average but consistent with this metabolic state and entirely benign.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors⚠️ Issue: 24h average temperature 92.2°F (33.4°C) is approaching but not yet holding the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — recovery is progressing; watch for a relapse slide (mean falling, swing staying tight) over the next 2–3 days as the October 10 dose is consumed.⚠️ Issue: Stores unconfirmed by weight — Iris is the only hive not hefted since the starvation event; temperature telemetry cannot confirm adequate reserves.▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Iris and confirm stores weight — if light, feed 2:1 sugar syrup in bulk toward a target of at least two full deep combs; a dose, not a weight target, will produce a brief warm-up followed by another slide.▹ Action: If the 24h mean slides back below 90°F (32.2°C) with a tight swing (under 5°F / 3°C amplitude), treat that as the relapse signal and feed immediately rather than waiting for a planned visit. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 75/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 is holding solidly in the ideal brood band — 24h average 94.1°F (34.5°C), current 94.4°F (34.7°C), a remarkably stable trace that is +12.7°F (+7.1°C) above this hive's all-time average of 81.4°F (27.5°C) and the best thermal performance this colony has shown since monitoring began. As your October 9 inspection and October 10 feeding logs confirm, the gallon of 1:1 syrup is fueling this recovery; humidity at 53.7% average is healthy, vibration is normal at 0.0157 g with kurtosis 2.9, and the 14-day acoustic trend is a gradual +5.3 dBFS rise — consistent with a rebuilding colony processing syrup and expanding its brood footprint. Stores remain unconfirmed by weight and that is still the most important next step.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 24h swing of 92.6–95.4°F (33.6–35.2°C), just 2.8°F (1.5°C) peak-to-trough, is excellent brood clamping — the Apimaye enclosure and an active brood nest are both contributing to this flat trace. Sound is establishing its new post-reset baseline at a 24h average of −42.7 dBFS with a modest +1.0 dBFS rise in the second half; per-band deltas show a consistent +2–3 dBFS uplift across the 200–600 Hz region relative to the still-short 180h baseline, consistent with the documented spectral shift toward lower frequencies during syrup-processing/fanning activity (Meikle et al. 2017). The gas heater-scan at 37 kΩ (320°C reference) is dramatically below the all-time average of 51 kΩ and reflects the very high VOC load of active syrup conversion and brood rearing — the strong deconfounded correlation r=−0.93 between temperature and gas resistance confirms this is a hive-physiology signal, not an artifact, and it is entirely expected given the feeding history. Vibration daily rhythm is present in 12 of 15 days; the weakening of the 5–20 Hz and 20–50 Hz rhythm in the second half of the window is a normal settling as the colony stabilizes after the starvation/recovery perturbation.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.93The exceptionally strong deconfounded correlation (r=−0.93, p=5.2e-11) between in-hive temperature and gas resistance in Hive #2 is the clearest metabolic coupling signal in this apiary: as the brood core warms, heater-bee activity and nurse-bee fanning intensify, circulating brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene from expanding larval cohorts) and sucrose-conversion volatiles past the MOX plate — driving resistance down in lock-step with temperature rise. This is a healthy, expected signature of a colony ramping up brood rearing on supplemental feed, not a cause for concern.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2009, Apidologie, Stalidzans et al. 2017humidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.64The deconfounded r=−0.64 between humidity and gas resistance reflects syrup-evaporation dynamics: as the colony fans the 1:1 syrup to concentrate it, both in-hive humidity and VOC load rise together, pulling the MOX resistance down; the 47.9–57.7% RH range remains within the healthy brood band and the humidity-gas coupling is an expected artifact of active syrup processing rather than a condensation or fermentation concern.📚 Reference: Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors, Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection; the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup is sustaining the current brood-band temperature but may support only 2–4 days at this metabolic rate — monitor the 24h mean for a plateau or slide as the dose is consumed.⚠️ Issue: Battery at 3964 mV with a −68 mV 24h drain; still well above the 3960 mV all-time low but worth watching — if it approaches 3800 mV, consider recharging on your next visit.▹ Action: Monitor the 24h mean temperature daily — if it plateaus or slides below 92°F (33.3°C) with the swing still tight, that is the relapse signal; switch to 2:1 sugar syrup and feed toward a target of at least two full deep combs of capped honey, not by dose.▹ Action: On your next visit, switch to 2:1 syrup (heavier carbohydrate per volume, less evaporative work) to build stores more efficiently before October nights cool further and foraging windows shorten. -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 is the thermal standout in the apiary — the 24h range of 94.0–94.9°F (34.5–35.0°C) with a remarkable 0.9°F (0.5°C) peak-to-trough swing and a perfectly flat hourly trace is the tightest brood-zone clamping of any hive this apiary has recorded, sitting +10.8°F (+6.0°C) above the all-time average of 83.7°F (28.7°C) and squarely in the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) band. As your October 9 and October 10 logs confirm, the inspection found about 60% fondant consumed and very little pollen patty, followed by a gallon of 1:1 syrup — the 14-day warming drift of +8.5°F (+4.7°C) is a sustained recovery arc, not a single post-feed step, which is the more encouraging pattern. Humidity at 54.2% average is healthy; vibration is normal at 0.0149 g with kurtosis 2.8; continue feeding toward a bulk stores target and confirm brood is present on your next visit.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 0.9°F (0.5°C) 24h swing is exceptional — at this level the Apimaye R≈6.93 enclosure is contributing significant thermal damping, but the colony itself is clearly running a tight brood-core setpoint; the flat hourly trace over 24 hours with no foraging-peak excursion is consistent with a colony whose thermal mass is fully engaged in brood rearing rather than cycling between heating and cooling effort. Sound is establishing its new post-reset baseline at −18.5 dBFS average — the loudest of the three post-reset hives — with per-band deltas of +4.7 to +5.4 dB in the 100–420 Hz region above the still-short 180h baseline, consistent with increased low-frequency buzzing from syrup-fanning and brood expansion; the 260–350 Hz band is the dominant band at −12.9 dBFS, in the range associated with the colony fundamental frequency and healthy queen-right activity. Gas heater-scan at 328 kΩ (320°C reference) is below the all-time average of 450 kΩ, driven by the same syrup-processing VOC load seen across the apiary; the deconfounded r=−0.63 between temperature and gas resistance and −0.48 between humidity and gas resistance confirm this is active colony metabolism, not an external event.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriessound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.58The partial correlation r=+0.58 (sound ~ temperature, controlling for outdoor) in Hive #1 is the positive version of this relationship — here, as the brood core warms, acoustic energy rises in tandem, reflecting increasing heater-bee and forager activity fueled by the syrup feed; the 150–200 Hz and 100–150 Hz bands strengthening over the 14-day window (the documented fanning/colony-hum region) corroborate that the acoustic recovery is driven by ventilation and thermoregulatory effort accompanying brood expansion.📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep.temperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.63Deconfounded r=−0.63 between in-hive temperature and gas resistance tracks the metabolic ramp-up: brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene peaking at young larval stages), syrup conversion alcohols, and increased fanning circulation all load the MOX sensor as brood-zone temperature rises — an entirely benign and expected coupling in a colony rebuilding on supplemental carbohydrate.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stalidzans et al. 2017⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection; the October 10 gallon of 1:1 syrup is sustaining the excellent thermal performance, but the two-deep configuration requires higher total stores targets — monitor for the relapse trajectory (mean plateauing or sliding with tight swing) over the next 2–3 days.▹ Action: On your next visit, confirm brood is present and being capped — with the pollen patty consumed slowly, verify the colony is raising new brood rather than simply metabolizing the carbohydrate supply, and feed bulk 2:1 syrup toward a target of at least two full deep combs of capped honey.▹ Action: If the 24h mean slides back below 93°F (33.9°C) with the swing still tight, switch to 2:1 syrup and increase volume. -
Hive #3 warning Score: 76/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 is running warm and energetic — 24h average 94.2°F (34.5°C), current 94.6°F (34.8°C), with the loudest acoustic signature in the apiary at −13.4 dBFS average and all 10 sound bands rising +3–6 dBFS in the second half of the day; as your October 10 log notes, the colony is still eating the remaining pollen patty, consistent with active brood rearing at these temperatures. Humidity at 51.0% average is within the healthy range; vibration is normal at 0.0192 g with kurtosis 2.9 and a clear daily foraging rhythm; the 24h swing of 88.5–96.0°F (31.4–35.6°C) is 7.5°F (4.2°C), wider than the other three hives, which reflects the sensor being in the upper deep (box 2 of 2) where the brood front is advancing and more exposed to the colony's thermal gradient — the colony is clearly holding a warm core and the absolute temperatures are healthy. Stores remain unconfirmed by weight and Hive #3 has the highest consumption rate of any hive — prioritize it for the next bulk feeding.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe wider 7.5°F (4.2°C) diurnal swing — versus 0.9°F for Hive #1 and 2.8°F for Hive #2 — is consistent with the sensor location in the upper deep where the brood front and honey storage interface, creating more thermal variation than a sensor locked in the center of the lower brood box; all three swing-gate checks confirm this is normal: the in-hive low of 88.5°F (31.4°C) is still +12°F above the outdoor high, the swing is below the 5.4°F placement-concern threshold, and the average is firmly in the 93–97°F band. Sound shows all 10 bands with a daily cycle, the dominant rhythm shifting from 1500–3600 Hz to the 200–500 Hz region — reflecting afternoon foraging/fanning activity concentrating acoustic energy in the colony fundamental and waggle/communication bands; the per-band uplift of +3.6 to +5.6 dB above the 180h baseline across 100–800 Hz is consistent with increased low-frequency colony activity during syrup processing. The gas change-point of −49,626 Ω around October 3 — a step down in resistance — aligns precisely with the October 5 feeding and inspection, and the current 86.8 kΩ is within the normal range of this hive's own history (all-time avg 105.8 kΩ); the deconfounded r=−0.68 between temperature and gas resistance confirms the same syrup-metabolism coupling seen across the apiary.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriessound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.72The strongest sound-temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r=+0.72, controlling for outdoor weather) in Hive #3 reflects this colony's consistently high acoustic energy co-moving with its thermal recovery — as brood rearing expands and the warm core rises, fanning and forager activity both increase, producing the loudest broadband sound profile in the apiary; the 260–350 Hz dominant band at −8.0 dBFS is in the healthy colony fundamental range associated with a queen-right, brood-rearing colony (Woods 1959; Ramsey et al. 2020).📚 Reference: Meikle et al. 2017, Apidologie, Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep.gas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.68The gas change-point (~October 3, −49,626 Ω step) and the sustained deconfounded r=−0.68 between temperature and gas resistance trace directly to the October 5 feeding and subsequent brood expansion: increasing brood pheromones, syrup processing, and fanning all progressively load the MOX sensor as the colony warms — the gas curve shape shows the low-temperature steps (100–200°C) shifted ~32–35% lower than the window's first half while the high-temperature steps (350–400°C) are more stable, a shape change consistent with an increase in heavier, less-reactive volatiles (propolis terpenes, brood esters) rather than a light-gas event.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stalidzans et al. 2017⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low at October 9 inspection; Hive #3 has the highest consumption rate in the apiary and received the smallest October 10 dose (half-gallon vs. a full gallon for Hive #1 and #2) — it is likely the first to exhaust the current dose; monitor temperature trajectory closely for the relapse signal.⚠️ Issue: Battery at 3908 mV with a −98 mV 24h drain — the fastest drain in the apiary; approaching but still above the all-time low of 3936 mV; worth monitoring over the next few days.▹ Action: Prioritize Hive #3 for the next bulk feeding — this colony has the highest consumption rate and received the smallest October 10 dose; feed 2:1 sugar syrup toward a target of at least two full deep combs of capped honey.▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Hive #3 first; if the pollen patty is still being consumed and brood expansion is confirmed at these temperatures, the warm trace and active acoustics are an encouraging sign of genuine rebuilding — but stores must be confirmed by weight, not temperature.