As of October 10, 2026, your apiary is in genuine recovery — all four hives are holding warm offsets well above the outdoor range of 53.6–77.5°F (12.0–25.3°C), and the most critical concern from yesterday (Hive #2 and Hive #3 relapse) has eased: both colonies are trending warmer after yesterday's October 9 feeding, not sliding further. The picture is cautiously encouraging, but with every colony confirmed at low stores just 24 hours ago, a heft remains the most valuable thing you can do this week.
Across all three inspected hives, your October 9 1 lb 1:1 sugar-water feeds produced detectable temperature step-ups within hours — a textbook demonstration that these colonies are energy-limited, not queen-limited or population-limited: the fuel supply, not the bees, is the rate-limiting variable right now (Basile, Pirk & Tautz 2008; Stabentheiner et al. 2010).
All four hives are showing clear diurnal vibration peaks (1.5–2.6× their own daily baselines) consistent with active October foraging and thermoregulation cycles; the outdoor swing of 53.6–77.5°F (12.0–25.3°C) at very dry 26–46% RH is ventilating through all screened floors and pulling in-hive humidity toward the lower end of the healthy 50–70% band — a physics effect of the open floors, not a desiccation risk.
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Iris warning Score: 62/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive is continuing its gradual warming recovery — the 24h average of 88.3°F (31.3°C) is +8.3°F (+4.6°C) above its all-time average of 80.0°F (26.7°C), the daily low of 85.7°F (29.8°C) sits comfortably above the outdoor high of 77.5°F (25.3°C), and the hourly trend is rising, all consistent with a colony rebuilding heat production after the starvation event. No voice log exists for Iris since the starvation event — unlike the other three hives, she has not been directly inspected or fed on October 9, so stores status remains unconfirmed; a heft on your next visit is the single most useful thing you can do for this hive.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsIris shows an active 8.0°F (4.4°C) daily temperature oscillation riding on a rising multi-day mean — the trough at 85.7°F (29.8°C) is well above outdoor, confirming retained damping and active thermoregulation. Sound metrics are on a new post-reset baseline (243 h of data since the September 30 firmware pipeline change); the current 24h average of -51.2 dBFS is the new reference — long-term acoustic trends resume as data accumulates, and the -32 dB shift versus the pre-reset historical average is a measurement format artifact, not a colony event. Humidity is a healthy 61.1% (range 58.7–62.7%), well within the optimal 50–70% band. Vibration RMS of 0.0155 g (kurtosis 2.8, near the normal ~3.0 baseline) is within the all-time range of 0.0144–0.0273 g with the dominant band at 80–120 Hz, and 14 of 15 days show the characteristic daily activity peak — no impulsive disturbances. The gas resistance of 330,323 Ω is below the all-time average of 411,610 Ω, consistent with increased brood-pheromone and metabolic activity as the colony rebuilds; the heater-scan curve shows a smooth monotonic decline from 100–400°C with no unusual shape change, a normal profile for an active recovering colony.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriesgas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.58As Iris's mean temperature rises during recovery, gas resistance falls — a genuine deconfounded coupling (not just diurnal) reflecting increased metabolic activity: more bees actively heating means more brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene), more propolis volatiles, and more CO2-linked reducing gases circulating, all of which lower MOX resistance. This is a healthy recovery signal, not a VOC concern.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, Seeley 1985sound_level vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.32The partial correlation shows sound energy falling slightly as temperature rises during warm periods — consistent with the heat-budget finding that under thermal load colonies shift toward passive buffering (stored heat in honey and bee bodies ~90% of the response) and reduce metabolic/acoustic output; this is physiology, not population decline, and corroborates that the colony is warming for the right reasons.📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Bencsik et al. 2023⚠️ Issue: Brood temperature averaging 88.3°F (31.3°C) — still below the 93–97°F (34–36°C) ideal brood-incubation band; recovery is progressing but incomplete.⚠️ Issue: No voice log or inspection for Iris since the apiary-wide starvation event — stores status unconfirmed; unlike Hive #1, #2, and #3, Iris was not fed on October 9.▹ Action: On your next visit, heft Iris and confirm stores — she is the only hive not directly fed or inspected yesterday, and weight is the only reliable stores indicator; if light, feed 2:1 sugar syrup toward at least two full deep combs of capped honey.▹ Action: While visiting, confirm a laying queen and capped brood to understand whether the below-band temperature reflects a requeening gap, ongoing fuel recovery, or a small cluster still rebuilding. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 60/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 is responding to yesterday's October 9 feeding — as you noted, the colony had consumed about 60% of the October 5 fondant and only a small amount of the pollen patty, and your 1 lb 1:1 feed has produced a clear warm-up: the hourly trend is rising +7.0°F (+3.9°C) over the last 24 hours, and the in-hive low of 80.2°F (26.8°C) maintains a +21.8°F (+12.1°C) warm offset above the outdoor average — the THERMOREGULATION CHECK confirms this is a recovery pattern with retained damping, not a relapse. The colony is responding to fuel, which is reassuring, but the stores baseline is still very low (confirmed yesterday), the October 9 dose was only 1 lb 1:1, and the trajectory after each small feed must be watched closely for a further slide.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 24h temperature swing of 11.0°F (6.1°C) is wider than the outdoor swing ratio would suggest for a well-stocked colony, but the THERMOREGULATION CHECK explicitly flags this as a recovery warm-up, not a damping failure — the second half of the 24h window averages +7.2°F (+4.0°C) warmer than the first, the direction of recovery. Humidity is a healthy 55.6% (range 52.8–59.9%). Sound is on a new post-reset baseline (132 h since the October 4 sensor reinstallation); the 24h average of -41.3 dBFS is this hive's new reference, all bands within 4.8 dB of the post-reset baseline — treat as a new starting point. Vibration RMS of 0.0134 g (kurtosis 3.7, slightly elevated but well below the impulsive-event threshold of 5.0) is within the all-time range; dominant band at 80–120 Hz and 13 of 15 days showing daily peaks confirm normal diurnal activity. The gas resistance of 37,253 Ω remains well below the all-time average of 51,132 Ω — consistent with syrup processing (the 1:1 feed from October 9) driving elevated reducing-gas VOCs; the heater-scan curve is unusually flat from 320–400°C (320C: 37k, 350C: 31k, 375C: 34k, 400C: 41k), a slight U-shape at high plate temperatures that likely reflects concentrated syrup-processing alcohols and esters dominating this gas mix.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.92The strongest deconfounded correlation in the apiary (r=-0.92): as Hive #2's temperature rises with each feeding dose, gas resistance falls sharply — heater bees ramping up shivering thermogenesis increase colony metabolic output, more brood pheromones circulate, and syrup processing itself produces alcohols and esters that lower MOX resistance; the rapid cycling of this relationship with each dose-and-relapse cycle makes it a live metabolic energy-gauge for this colony.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, Basile et al. 2008⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low on October 9 — 1 lb 1:1 syrup is a small dose for a colony on bare comb; the temperature trajectory over the next 2–3 days will indicate whether this dose is sustaining the colony or being consumed rapidly.⚠️ Issue: The October 9 dose was 1:1 (thin syrup) rather than the more energy-dense 2:1 — thin syrup requires more evaporative work from the colony and delivers less net carbohydrate per pound.▹ Action: Monitor the 24h mean temperature over the next 2–3 days — if it plateaus or slides back with the swing still tight, that is the relapse signature and Hive #2 needs bulk 2:1 syrup feed immediately, not another small dose.▹ Action: On your next visit, switch to 2:1 sugar syrup (heavier carbohydrate load per volume) and feed toward a target of at least two full deep combs of capped honey — feed by weight toward a stores target, not by dose. -
Hive #1 warning Score: 66/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 is the most thermally advanced of the recovering colonies — the current reading of 92.1°F (33.4°C) is just inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band, the 24h mean of 88.6°F (31.4°C) is +5.9°F (+3.3°C) above the all-time average of 82.7°F (28.2°C), and the in-hive low of 85.5°F (29.7°C) sits well above the outdoor high of 77.5°F (25.3°C). As you noted October 9, the colony had consumed ~60% of the October 5 fondant and only a small amount of the pollen patty, and you fed 1 lb of 1:1 syrup — the current hourly rise of +3.5°F (+1.9°C) is consistent with that feeding sustaining heat production, but stores confirmed low yesterday mean a follow-up heft is still the most valuable next step.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #1 shows a tight 6.8°F (3.8°C) daily temperature swing — well below the outdoor 24.0°F (13.3°C) swing — confirming strong thermoregulatory damping. Humidity averages 44.9% (range 39.8–53.0%), dipping below the 50% brood-optimal floor driven by the screened floor and very dry outdoor air (26–46% RH) — this is a ventilation-physics effect, not a brood desiccation risk while temperatures are in the warm recovery range. Sound is on a new post-reset baseline (132 h); the 24h spectrum is impressively stable — all bands within ±1 dB of the post-reset baseline, dominant at 200–260 Hz (-18.3 dB), with all 10 bands trending upward in the second half of the day, consistent with active colony rhythm. Vibration RMS of 0.0163 g (kurtosis 2.9, right at the normal ~3.0 baseline) is within the all-time range; dominant at 80–120 Hz, 14 of 15 days show daily peaks. Gas resistance of 337,842 Ω is below the all-time average of 459,735 Ω, reflecting post-feed syrup processing; the heater-scan shape is very similar to Iris (smooth monotonic decline), consistent with comparable metabolic activity levels.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.57A genuine deconfounded coupling: as Hive #1 warms with each feeding dose, gas resistance falls — the same metabolic/brood-pheromone mechanism as the other hives, here with a moderate coupling strength suggesting this colony has somewhat more stable baseline VOC output (larger population buffering the signal) than the more volatile Hive #2 relationship.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Stabentheiner et al. 2010sound_level vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.74The strongest sound-temperature partial correlation in the apiary (r=-0.74, controlling for outdoor temp): when Hive #1 is warmer, acoustic output is lower — consistent with the acute heat-budget finding that colonies under thermal load suppress metabolic/acoustic output and rely on passive buffering; when cooler (and energy-limited), they are acoustically busier as bees move and fan to maintain what warmth they can.📚 Reference: Harrison et al. 2026, Stabentheiner et al. 2010⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low on October 9 — 1 lb 1:1 syrup is a small dose for a two-deep colony on depleted stores; monitor the temperature trajectory over the next 2–3 days for signs of relapse.⚠️ Issue: Humidity averaging 44.9% with a low of 39.8% — driven by screened floor and dry outdoor air; worth monitoring if it consistently dips below 40% as October cool-down continues.▹ Action: Monitor the 24h mean temperature over the next 2–3 days — if it plateaus or slides back with the swing still tight, switch to bulk 2:1 sugar syrup and feed toward at least two full deep combs of capped honey.▹ Action: Keep the pollen patty supply ahead of the sugar supply — brood rearing at 93–97°F (34–36°C) is the most energy-expensive colony activity, and a patty without bulk carbohydrate deepens the stores deficit. -
Hive #3 warning Score: 68/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 is the strongest thermal performer today — current reading of 92.9°F (33.9°C) is inside the ideal 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band, the 24h average of 89.5°F (32.0°C) is +9.0°F (+5.0°C) above the all-time average of 80.5°F (26.9°C), and the daily low of 85.9°F (29.9°C) sits well above the outdoor high of 77.5°F (25.3°C). As you noted October 9, Hive #3 had almost entirely eaten both the pollen patty and fondant from October 5 — the colony is clearly the most metabolically active of the four — and your 1 lb 1:1 feed yesterday is sustaining the current warm trend; the risk here is that this colony consumes doses fastest and will need bulk follow-up soonest.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #3 shows an 8.1°F (4.5°C) daily temperature swing — strong damping relative to the outdoor 24.0°F (13.3°C) swing, confirming active thermoregulation; the hourly trend is rising +4.5°F (+2.5°C) and all 10 sound bands are trending upward in the second half of the day. Humidity averages 52.2% (range 49.3–55.5%), comfortably in the healthy 50–70% band. Sound is on a new post-reset baseline (133 h); the spectrum is impressively stable — all bands within ±1.0 dB of the post-reset baseline, dominant at 200–260 Hz (-13.9 dB), with broad energy across 200–500 Hz consistent with a well-populated, active colony. Vibration RMS of 0.0211 g (kurtosis 2.7, just below the ~3.0 norm but within range) is within the all-time 0.0154–0.0378 g range; dominant at 80–120 Hz, 14 of 15 days show daily peaks up to 34.9 mG. Gas resistance of 87,134 Ω is below the all-time average of 106,635 Ω but the heater-scan curve shows a notable flattening at the 350–400°C steps (350C: 75k, 375C: 75k, 400C: 81k — nearly flat), suggesting concentrated light reducing gases (likely syrup-processing alcohols) saturating the high-temperature plate steps; the 100–200°C steps have shifted down -34–38% from prior readings, amplifying the low-temperature sensitivity signature of active sugar metabolism.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.65A genuine deconfounded coupling: as Hive #3's temperature rises it drives gas resistance lower — here the low-temperature heater-scan steps (100–200°C) are showing the strongest resistance drop, consistent with heavier, less-reactive volatiles (brood pheromones, propolis terpenes, syrup esters) that peak at lower plate temperatures; the colony's higher metabolic rate relative to its neighbors is written into the shape of this gas curve.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Bencsik et al. 2023, Stabentheiner et al. 2010sound_level vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.61Uniquely among the four hives, Hive #3 shows a POSITIVE partial sound-temperature correlation (r=+0.61) — warmer temperatures here coincide with louder acoustics, the opposite of the heat-suppression pattern seen in Hive #1 and Iris; this suggests Hive #3's sound rises because the colony is warming itself actively (heater bees generating sound through vibration), rather than warming passively from ambient, consistent with it being the most acoustically vigorous colony.📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Seeley & Tautz 2001⚠️ Issue: Stores confirmed low on October 9 and Hive #3 consumed its October 5 dose fastest of all four hives — 1 lb 1:1 syrup is a small follow-up; this colony will likely show relapse signs first if bulk feed is not provided promptly.▹ Action: Hive #3 is your highest-consumption colony — prioritize bulk 2:1 sugar syrup here first on your next visit, feeding toward a target of at least two full deep combs of capped honey; monitor the 24h mean temperature daily for any slide back below 86°F (30°C) with a tight swing, which would be the relapse signal.▹ Action: Given this colony consumed nearly all its pollen patty, confirm on your next visit that brood is being raised and stores are actually building — hefting is the only reliable confirmation that the syrup is being capped and not just metabolized.