As of October 3, 2026, your apiary is navigating a natural early-October cool-down with two colonies (Iris and Hive #3) showing the warm-offset-rebuilding recovery pattern flagged in today's thermoregulation checks — both are regaining heat in the second half of the day but their daily swings remain wide enough that a stores heft this week is still the right follow-up. Hive #1 is trending warmer and Hive #2 is thermally stable; the apiary-wide acoustic step logged around September 30 remains a confirmed firmware format transition, not a biological event.
All four hives show a strong negative deconfounded coupling between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r = −0.47 to −0.94 after removing the shared diurnal cycle), consistent with honey-metabolic VOC release scaling with cluster metabolic rate as described by Bencsik et al. 2023 — warmer, more active clusters produce more reducing gases, pushing resistance down; this is the expected autumn physiology, not a distress signal.
All four hives continue to buffer the outdoor 48.8–70.8°F (9.3–21.6°C) swing with a 3–5 hour thermal lag and maintain warm offsets well above ambient, consistent with the high-R Apimaye enclosures; daily vibration peaks (80–120 Hz dominant, 1.5–3.3× baseline) persist across all nodes as the normal foraging/fanning rhythm, and the apiary-wide ~35 dBFS acoustic step around September 30 is the firmware format transition artifact confirmed across all nodes — no biological content.
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Iris warning Score: 62/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive is showing the warm-offset-rebuilding recovery pattern today: the 24h avg of 74.3°F (23.5°C) is 6.7°F (3.7°C) below the all-time avg of 81.0°F (27.2°C) with a 10.8°F (6.0°C) swing, but the second half of the day averaged +7.8°F (+4.3°C) warmer than the first and the warm offset above outdoor remains +16.1°F (+8.9°C) — the cluster is actively regaining heat production. Sound is fully stable (all bands within ±1.4 dB of baseline, dominated at 100–150 Hz at −16.7 dB), humidity is a healthy 62.2% avg, vibration kurtosis is a normal 3.8 with 80–120 Hz dominant, and the gas resistance at 442,619 Ohms is above its all-time avg of 425,552 Ohms indicating clean air — watch the swing narrow over coming days as confirmation.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 24h temperature arc (69.3–80.2°F / 20.7–26.8°C, swing +10.8°F/+6.0°C) is wide relative to Iris's own history but the in/out amplitude ratio of 0.49 and the clear second-half recovery (+7.8°F) confirm retained damping in the recovery arc — not a damping failure. Humidity is tightly held 60.4–63.4% with no ambient coupling, a textbook hygroregulation signature. The per-band spectral analysis shows the dominant sound rhythm shifting from 100–150 Hz to 1500–3600 Hz between the first and second half of the day (+3.9 dB in 500–600 Hz, +3.2 dB in 420–500 Hz in the second half) — consistent with increasing afternoon foraging and ventilation activity as the cluster warms. Gas heater-scan low steps (100–200°C) show a strengthening daily rhythm (+9% to +24% swing) tracking the temperature recovery, which aligns with colony metabolic VOC output scaling with cluster warmth (Bencsik et al. 2023).
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs sound_spectrum (14d) | r = +0.48The deconfounded partial correlation (r=+0.48) between sound energy and in-hive temperature — after removing the shared outdoor diurnal cycle — reflects the known coupling between cluster metabolic warmth and acoustic activity: as the cluster regains heat in the second half of the day, mid- and upper-band acoustic energy rises in step, consistent with the recovery arc pattern and not with any abrupt population loss.📚 Reference: Stabentheiner, Kovac & Brodschneider 2010, Minaud et al. 2024⚠️ Issue: Warm-offset rebuilding pattern: 24h avg 74.3°F (23.5°C) with a +10.8°F (+6.0°C) swing; damping is retained and the cluster is recovering heat in the second half of the day, but the daily swing remains wide — a stores heft within the next few days will confirm whether stores are adequate to sustain thermogenesis.▹ Action: Heft your Iris hive within the next few days (no need to open it): if it feels lighter than your other hives, place 2:1 sugar syrup (by weight) directly over the cluster seam while daytime highs remain above ~50°F (10°C), or use fondant if cooler — confirming stores is the one action that will resolve this watch. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 68/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 is thermally stable with a 24h avg of 79.9°F (26.6°C) — within 2.6°F (1.4°C) of its all-time avg of 82.5°F (28.0°C) — a tight 4.8°F (2.7°C) daily swing (77.9–82.7°F / 25.5–28.1°C), and a warm offset of ~31°F (~17°C) above outdoor: damping is fully intact. Sound is at its all-time average of −51.9 dBFS with all bands within ±0.3 dB of baseline; humidity is a healthy 55.9% avg; vibration kurtosis is a normal 3.7 with 80–120 Hz dominant; gas resistance at 54,830 Ohms is near its all-time avg of 51,890 Ohms, with the strong deconfounded gas/temperature coupling (r=−0.94 partial) reflecting normal honey-metabolic VOC activity. The ongoing 14-day cooling drift (weekly trend: 93.7→82.8→76.8→81.5°F) has stabilized this week, which is reassuring; a brood and stores check on your next routine visit will close out the watch.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 24h temperature arc (77.9–82.7°F / 25.5–28.1°C) shows well-damped daily cycling with a ~5.5°F (3.0°C) average oscillation and a 3–4 hour lag behind outdoor, consistent with the Apimaye thermal mass. All 6 vibration bands show a daily cycle (strongest at 5–20 Hz, 8.0 dB rhythm), with 80–120 Hz weakening slightly over the 14-day window — a normal autumn reduction in peak fanning effort. The gas heater-scan shows the dominant daily rhythm band shifting from 100°C to 280°C between the first and second half of the window, with low-step (100–150°C) amplitude weakening (+54% to +24% swing) — consistent with a moderate reduction in heavy VOC load as brood contracts, a seasonal metabolic signal (Bencsik et al. 2023).
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.94The strongest hive-specific coupling in the apiary: after removing the shared outdoor diurnal cycle, Hive #2's in-hive temperature and gas resistance move in near-lockstep (partial r=−0.94), meaning warmer cluster periods produce measurably more reducing-gas VOCs — the colony's own honey metabolism and brood pheromone activity scaling with thermogenesis, exactly as predicted by Seeley 1974 CO2/metabolic scaling and the Bencsik 2023 gas-amplitude population correlate.📚 Reference: Bencsik et al. 2023, Seeley 1974⚠️ Issue: 14-day temperature arc shows week-over-week variability (93.7→82.8→76.8→81.5°F weekly avgs); while the current 24h is stable, confirming fresh eggs and hefting for stores on the next routine visit will close out this watch.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #2's brood frames for fresh eggs and heft for stores — the retained tight damping, stable acoustics, and normal gas coupling all point to a healthy colony in a natural autumn brood-variable state. -
Hive #1 warning Score: 75/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 is running the warmest in the apiary today at 85.7°F (29.8°C) avg — +4.7°F (+2.6°C) above its all-time avg of 81.0°F (27.2°C) and continuing a 14-day warming drift of +8.4°F (+4.7°C) — with a strong warm offset of +27.5°F (+15.3°C) above outdoor and the THERMOREGULATION CHECK confirming a recovery arc (second half +5.9°F warmer than first). The 8.3°F (4.6°C) daily swing is wider than last cycle but the in/out amplitude ratio of 0.38 confirms damping is retained; humidity at 46.8% avg is slightly below the 50–70% optimal range, consistent with the dry outdoor ambient (28–52% RH) ventilating through the screened floor; sound is rock-steady at its all-time avg of −51.8 dBFS with all bands within ±0.2 dB; vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.6 with 80–120 Hz dominant. A humidity anomaly (z=+4.9) and the wide swing warrant a stores heft within the next few days.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 24h temperature arc (82.0–90.2°F / 27.8–32.4°C) is the warmest and widest in the apiary but the warm offset stays firmly above outdoor and the in/out amplitude ratio of 0.38 keeps damping intact — the warming trend is real, not a damping failure. Humidity ranges 44.0–54.2% avg 46.8%: the psychrometric inverse (rising temperature lowers RH% at fixed absolute moisture) explains the low end, though the outdoor ambient is also genuinely dry at 28–52% RH. The anomaly flag (z=+4.9) on humidity reflects a brief within-rhythm excursion, not a sustained shift. Gas heater-scan low steps (100–150°C) are down −21–23% over the 14-day window, with a strong 10/10 band daily rhythm (100°C +30% swing) — consistent with brood VOC load scaling with the warmer, more active cluster state (Maisonnasse et al. 2010).
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.82The partial correlation of gas resistance vs. in-hive temperature (r=−0.82, controlling for outdoor) in Hive #1 — combined with its 14-day warming trend — is consistent with a cluster that has been progressively more metabolically active: warmer heater-bee periods drive higher brood pheromone and metabolic VOC output (E-β-ocimene at ~14 ng/larva in young larvae; Maisonnasse et al. 2010), pushing gas resistance lower as activity rises.📚 Reference: Bencsik et al. 2023, Maisonnasse et al. 2010⚠️ Issue: Wide daily swing of 8.3°F (4.6°C) in the context of the THERMOREGULATION CHECK recovery arc: damping is retained but the swing has not yet tightened — a stores heft within the next few days will confirm the warming trend is metabolic recovery rather than thermoregulatory effort against depleting stores.⚠️ Issue: Humidity at 46.8% avg is slightly below the 50–70% optimal range; likely driven by the dry outdoor ambient through the screened floor — worth noting but not yet a concern.▹ Action: Heft your Hive #1 within the next few days: if it feels lighter than expected for a 3-deep colony heading into October, offer 2:1 sugar syrup over the cluster while daytime highs stay above ~50°F (10°C) — the sustained warming trend and wide swing are reassuring signs of active thermogenesis, and confirming stores will keep it that way. -
Hive #3 warning Score: 58/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 is showing the warm-offset-rebuilding recovery pattern today: the 24h avg of 71.0°F (21.7°C) is 9.3°F (5.2°C) below its all-time avg of 80.3°F (26.8°C) with a 11.9°F (6.6°C) swing, but the second half of the day was +5.4°F (+3.0°C) warmer than the first and the warm offset above outdoor is +12.8°F (+7.1°C) — the cluster is regaining heat production. Sound remains perfectly stable at its all-time avg of −51.0 dBFS (all bands within ±0.2 dB of baseline), humidity is 54.8% avg (healthy 50–70% range, with a notable 43.5–76.0% intraday range), vibration kurtosis is a normal 3.8 with 80–120 Hz dominant; the gas resistance at 115,759 Ohms is near its all-time avg of 106,787 Ohms. This hive carries the lowest warm offset in the apiary and the widest daily swing — a stores heft this week remains the right action to confirm thermogenic fuel before the next cold snap.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsThe 24h arc (65.6–77.5°F / 18.6–25.3°C) gives the widest swing and the lowest daily minimum in the apiary, yet the in/out amplitude ratio of 0.54 and a clear +5.4°F recovery in the second half confirm active thermoregulation. Humidity swings 43.5–76.0%: the wide range reflects the screened-floor ventilation coupling ambient dry air at night (outdoor dipped to 28% RH) and the cluster's own moisture output later in the day — this is dew-point physics and hygroregulation cycling, not a sensor fault. Gas heater-scan low steps (100–200°C) show the largest shift in the apiary: +74% energy at 100°C with a strengthening daily rhythm (+54% to +92% swing) — the deconfounded humidity~gas correlation (r=−0.60) suggests nocturnal condensation from honey metabolism as the colony cools is driving the low-step MOX response, a moisture/ventilation phenomenon fully explained by Winston 1987 metabolic-water physics.
🔬 Correlations & Discoverieshumidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.6The genuine deconfounded correlation between in-hive humidity and gas resistance (r=−0.60, p=1.4e-05) — the strongest humidity/gas coupling in the apiary — is consistent with metabolic water from honey consumption condensing on the cooler inner walls as Hive #3's cluster cools each night, releasing fermentation-adjacent reducing gases that the low-temperature heater-scan steps (100–200°C) are most sensitive to; this is a moisture/ventilation physics phenomenon, not a disease signal (Winston 1987; Owens 1971).📚 Reference: Winston 1987, Bencsik et al. 2023, Owens 1971 USDA Tech. Bull. 1429⚠️ Issue: Warm-offset rebuilding pattern with the lowest warm offset in the apiary (+12.8°F/+7.1°C above outdoor) and widest daily swing (+11.9°F/+6.6°C): damping is retained and the cluster is recovering heat in the second half of the day, but stores have not been confirmed — a heft this week is the key action to rule out starvation before the next cold snap.⚠️ Issue: Battery at 3,990 mV is the lowest in the apiary (all-time low 3,936 mV); currently stable but worth noting as October cloud cover reduces solar charging.▹ Action: Heft your Hive #3 this week (no need to open it): lift the back of the hive — if it feels noticeably lighter than your other hives, place 2:1 sugar syrup (by weight) directly over the cluster seam while daytime highs remain above ~50°F (10°C), or use fondant if colder — this is the single most important action to confirm the recovery arc is fuel-supported.▹ Action: If the hive feels adequately heavy, note the weight and monitor whether the daily swing tightens over the coming days — a narrowing swing alongside the retained warm offset would confirm the colony is consolidating normally for October.