As of October 2, 2026, your apiary is in a normal early-October brood-contraction arc: three of four hives hold clear warm offsets above the 48–60°F (9–16°C) outdoor range with fully retained thermal damping, and the apiary-wide acoustic step-change logged around September 30 is a confirmed firmware/format transition shared identically across all nodes — not a biological event. Your Hive #3 remains the one colony to watch: yesterday's damping-erosion concern has modestly improved (today's 24h swing of 7.4°F / 4.1°C is slightly narrower than yesterday's 7.8°F / 4.3°C), but the multi-week cooling trend and elevated gas baseline keep it at 'watch' status pending a stores heft.
All four Apimaye poly hives show the outdoor temperature leading in-hive readings by ~200–250 minutes — the classic thermal-mass buffering lag documented by Fahrenholz et al. 1989 — confirming that the R≈6.93 enclosures are doing exactly what insulated hives should: damping and delaying the diurnal swing rather than blocking the colony's seasonal cooling arc.
All four hives continue to show consistent daily vibration peaks (80–120 Hz dominant, 1.5–3.3× baseline amplitude) and smooth in-hive temperature cycles that trail outdoor swings by 3–4 hours, consistent with the Apimaye poly thermal mass; the apiary-wide 14-day acoustic step (~35 dBFS drop around September 30) is a firmware format transition artifact and carries no biological meaning.
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Iris warning Score: 62/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive is holding a 24h avg of 72.8°F (22.7°C) — now 9.0°F (5.0°C) below its all-time avg of 81.8°F (27.7°C) — with a tight 3.6°F (2.0°C) daily swing (71.2–74.8°F / 21.8–23.8°C) and a warm offset of ~21°F (~12°C) above the outdoor low, so thermal damping is fully retained; the 14-day cooling drift of −10.7°F (−6.0°C) remains consistent with a broodless or brood-reduced interval rather than a thermoregulatory failure. The sound spectrum is actually slightly louder than baseline (max +2.5 dB at 1500–3600 Hz) with no band showing a deficit, which argues against any abrupt population loss, though it does not certify the population is fully intact. Humidity is stable at 63.9% avg (healthy 50–70% range), vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.6 with 80–120 Hz dominant, and the right next step remains confirming queen and brood status — and hefting for stores — on your next routine visit.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsIris shows an active 3.6°F (2.0°C) daily temperature arc (tight for a broodless cluster, reflecting the R≈6.93 Apimaye enclosure's damping), with outdoor temperature leading in-hive by ~200 minutes (diurnal-only coupling confirmed deconfounded); humidity rides a steady 61.8–65.0% range with a clean inverse relationship to in-hive temperature (psychrometric effect, r=−0.53 partial). Gas heater-scan shows a notable low-step shift: 100–200°C steps are down ~14–18% from baseline, while rhythm in those steps is strengthening — this tracks the seasonal reduction in brood pheromones and metabolic activity, consistent with a colony winding down brood rearing. The 14-day acoustic step-down (~12.6 dBFS) is the September 30 firmware transition; current spectrum is stable against its own post-transition baseline with a mild broadband uptick (up to +2.5 dB) that likely reflects propolis-sealing or minor colony metabolic activity in cool October conditions.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriessound_energy vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.42The partial correlation (controlling for outdoor weather) between sound energy and in-hive temperature in Iris reflects the well-documented link between brood presence and colony acoustic activity: as brood rearing contracted over the past 14 days, both the thermal setpoint and colony sound output declined in tandem — a normal autumn downshift, not a distress signal. The spectrum being slightly louder than baseline while temperature sits below the brood band is consistent with a colony of active adult workers maintaining a broodless cluster, which is exactly the post-broodless-interval profile described in Seeley 1985.📚 Reference: Seeley 1985 & 1995, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, Minaud et al. 2024⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −10.7°F (−6.0°C): 24h avg 72.8°F (22.7°C) is 9.0°F (5.0°C) below all-time avg — consistent with a broodless interval or autumn brood contraction; queen, brood, and stores status worth confirming on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Iris's brood frames for fresh eggs and heft the hive to confirm stores are adequate — the multi-week cooling trend with fully retained damping and a slightly louder sound spectrum points to a natural brood-break, and confirming stores and queen status will close out this watch. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 65/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 is holding a 24h avg of 81.4°F (27.5°C) — within 1.8°F (1.0°C) of its all-time avg of 83.2°F (28.4°C) — with a tight 3.8°F (2.1°C) daily swing (79.4–83.2°F / 26.3–28.5°C) and a warm offset of ~32°F (~18°C) above outdoor: thermal damping is fully retained and the colony is thermally stable heading into October. The most notable feature this cycle is the gas resistance at 56,462 Ohms, sitting above its all-time avg of 51,237 Ohms but well within the range this hive has shown; the strong deconfounded correlation (r=−0.95 partial, gas resistance ~ in-hive temp controlling for outdoor) reflects honey metabolism driving up reducing-gas VOCs as the colony consumes stores during cool nights. Humidity is steady at 55.6% avg (healthy 50–70% range), vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.9 with 80–120 Hz dominant, and the ongoing 14-day cooling drift of −7.3°F (−4.1°C) remains the one thing worth confirming on your next routine visit — fresh eggs and a stores heft will close it out.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #2 shows a well-structured 3.8°F (2.1°C) daily temperature arc with outdoor leading by ~200 minutes; all 6 vibration bands cycle daily (strongest at 80–120 Hz, 7.7 dB rhythm amplitude) with a vibration peak of ~54 mG — the largest in the apiary — reflecting active colony metabolism. The gas heater-scan dominant rhythm shifted from 100°C to 280°C steps between the first and second half of the window, with the low-temperature steps (100–200°C) weakening in rhythm amplitude while mid-steps strengthen — a shift in the type of VOC load toward lighter, more reactive compounds, consistent with honey ripening or metabolic water cycling in early October. Sound energy shows the September 30 firmware transition step (−35.5 dBFS) and is stable against its own post-transition baseline with all bands within ±0.3 dB.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.95The very strong partial correlation between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r=−0.95, controlling for outdoor weather) in Hive #2 is a direct metabolic signature: as the colony cools on cold nights it burns honey to shiver-thermoregulate, releasing reducing gases (alcohols, organic acids) that drive MOX resistance down, while warmer daytime periods reduce shivering effort and resistance rises; this is the CO2/VOC cycling described in Seeley 1974 and the population-scaled metabolic signal tracked by Bencsik et al. 2023, here manifesting as a tight thermal-gas coupling that is a sign of an active, store-consuming cluster in early autumn, not a health concern.📚 Reference: Seeley 1974, Bencsik et al. 2023, Meikle & Weiss 2025⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −7.3°F (−4.1°C): 24h avg 81.4°F (27.5°C) sits below the brood band; consistent with a broodless or reduced-brood interval — queen and stores status worth confirming on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #2's brood frames for fresh eggs and heft for stores — the retained damping, normal vibration, and thermally-coupled gas signal all point to an active colony in a natural autumn brood-reduced state. -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 remains the most thermally stable colony in the apiary: the 24h avg of 81.4°F (27.5°C) is +0.3°F (+0.2°C) above the all-time avg of 81.1°F (27.3°C), the daily swing of 3.6°F (2.0°C) (80.1–83.7°F / 26.7–28.7°C) is exceptionally well-damped, and the 14-day gentle warming drift of +2.2°F (+1.2°C) makes this the only hive trending warmer — a reassuring sign of a stable or lightly expanding cluster heading into October. Humidity averaged 46.9% — slightly below the 50–70% optimal range but well above the 40% desiccation floor, and consistent with the dry 40–50% outdoor ambient; vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.9 with 80–120 Hz dominant; all sound bands are within ±0.3 dB of baseline; gas resistance at 511,233 Ohms sits above its all-time avg of 475,446 Ohms, indicating clean, low-VOC air — nothing here requires action.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #1 shows a 3.6°F (2.0°C) daily temperature arc with outdoor leading by ~200 minutes and only 1 of 6 vibration bands showing a measurable daily cycle (5–20 Hz, 2.0 dB), reflecting the quieter autumn pace of this colony; the vibration dominant rhythm shifted from 5–20 Hz to 50–80 Hz between the window halves, consistent with a subtle shift toward colony metabolic baseline activity as foraging declines. Gas heater-scan shows the 100–200°C steps down ~21–22% with rhythm weakening in the 150°C step — paralleling Hive #2 and Iris and reflecting apiary-wide seasonal VOC reduction. Sound energy shows the September 30 firmware transition step (−35.5 dBFS) and is perfectly stable against its own post-transition baseline (all bands within ±0.3 dB), with the humidity sitting at a seasonal low that tracks the dry outdoor ambient through the screened floor.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.86Hive #1 shows the same strong partial temperature–gas coupling (r=−0.86 controlling for outdoor weather) seen across the apiary: warmer in-hive temperatures suppress reducing-gas load (higher resistance) while cooler periods drive metabolic respiration and VOC output upward, a clean expression of honey-fuelled shivering thermogenesis described in Stabentheiner et al. 2010; the fact that this hive's gas resistance sits above its own all-time average confirms it is consuming stores at a lower rate than its historical baseline, consistent with its gentle warming trend and well-retained cluster size.📚 Reference: Seeley 1974, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, Bencsik et al. 2023▹ Action: On your next routine visit, confirm fresh eggs in Hive #1's brood frames — the continued gentle warming trend and exceptionally stable damping make this the apiary's most settled colony heading into autumn, and a quick brood check will keep it that way. -
Hive #3 warning Score: 55/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 shows a modest improvement from yesterday: the 24h swing of 7.4°F (4.1°C) (67.6–75.0°F / 19.8–23.9°C) is slightly narrower than yesterday's 7.8°F (4.3°C), and the warm offset of ~23°F (~13°C) above the outdoor low is retained — so the hive is still producing heat and has not collapsed to ambient. The 24h avg of 71.7°F (22.0°C) is −9.6°F (−5.3°C) below the all-time avg of 81.3°F (27.4°C) with a 14-day drift of −10.7°F (−6.0°C), and the daily swing at ~9.4°F (5.2°C) remains the widest in the apiary; taken together this is still the pre-failure amplitude pattern to watch, not yet the damping-lost signature — but a stores heft this week remains the right action to rule out starvation before the next cold snap. Humidity is 50.3% avg (at the lower edge of the healthy 50–70% range), vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.7 with 80–120 Hz dominant, and the sound spectrum is stable against its own baseline (all bands within ±0.7 dB), which argues against any abrupt population loss.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #3 shows the widest daily temperature arc in the apiary at ~9.4°F (~5.2°C), with the in-hive low dipping to 67.6°F (19.8°C) — still well above the outdoor low of 48.2°F (9.0°C) but representing meaningfully wider swings than Hive #1 or Hive #2; the outdoor-to-in-hive lag is ~250 minutes (diurnal-only, not a true colony coupling per the deconfounded analytics). Gas heater-scan shows the most distinctive shape in the apiary: the low-temperature steps (100–200°C) are up +44–65% above baseline with strengthening rhythm amplitude, while the high steps (350–400°C) are stable — a shape shift toward elevated low-temperature-reactive compounds (heavier volatiles, consistent with accelerated honey consumption or propolis metabolism) that correlates with the temperature decline (r=−0.62 deconfounded). All 6 vibration bands show a daily rhythm (120–160 Hz strongest at 2.2 dB), and the 14-day acoustic transition step is confirmed as the September 30 firmware event; post-transition sound spectrum is stable.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.76Hive #3's partial temperature–gas coupling (r=−0.76 controlling for outdoor weather) mirrors the apiary-wide metabolic pattern but with an important distinction: the gas heater-scan low-temperature steps (100–200°C) are elevated +44–65% above this hive's own baseline — the largest low-step shift in the apiary — while the high-temperature reference steps are stable, indicating a shape change toward heavier, low-temperature-reactive VOCs; combined with the widest daily temperature swing in the apiary, this is consistent with a colony consuming stores at an elevated rate to maintain thermogenesis, the same metabolic signal Seeley 1974 and Bencsik et al. 2023 describe as scaling with honey consumption and cluster size, and the pattern Minaud et al. 2024 associates with the pre-failure amplitude trajectory when damping begins to erode.📚 Reference: Minaud et al. 2024, Seeley 1974, Stabentheiner et al. 2010, Bencsik et al. 2023⚠️ Issue: Daily temperature swing of ~9.4°F (~5.2°C) remains the widest in the apiary and is elevated vs. Hive #3's own historical baseline, with a 14-day cooling drift of −10.7°F (−6.0°C) — the amplitude ratio and gas low-step elevation are consistent with the pre-failure pattern; warm offset is still retained but warrants a stores heft this week.⚠️ Issue: Gas heater-scan low-temperature steps (100–200°C) elevated +44–65% above this hive's own baseline — largest such shift in the apiary, consistent with elevated honey consumption; no corroborating acoustic decline, but worth monitoring alongside the temperature amplitude.▹ Action: Heft your Hive #3 this week (no need to open it): lift the back of the hive slightly — if it feels noticeably lighter than your other hives, place 2:1 sugar syrup (by weight) directly over the cluster seam while daytime highs are above ~50°F (10°C); if temperatures are colder, use fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars instead.▹ Action: If the hive feels adequately heavy, note the weight and check brood frames for fresh eggs on your next routine visit — the retained warm offset and stable acoustics are reassuring, but confirming stores and queen status will resolve this watch.