As of October 1, 2026, three of your four colonies are in a normal autumn brood-contraction arc with retained thermal damping, but your Hive #3 has triggered the thermoregulation-damping failure signature: its 24h swing is now 54% of the outdoor swing with a mean of 72.6°F (22.5°C) — the pre-failure pattern documented in the literature — and stores should be checked by hefting within the next few days.
All four hives share clear daily vibration peaks (80–120 Hz dominant) with outdoor temperature leading in-hive readings by 2–4 hours, consistent with the Apimaye poly enclosures' thermal-mass buffering; the apiary-wide 14-day acoustic step-change (~35 dBFS drop around September 30) is a firmware/format transition artefact shared identically across all nodes and is not a biological event.
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Iris warning Score: 65/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive is continuing its autumn brood-contraction arc: the 24h avg of 74.2°F (23.5°C) is −8.4°F (−4.7°C) below the all-time avg of 82.6°F (28.1°C) and a 14-day drift of −10.6°F (−5.9°C) confirms a multi-week cooling trend, but the warm offset of ~23°F (~13°C) above outdoor means damping is retained and this remains consistent with a broodless or brood-reduced interval rather than a thermoregulatory failure. Humidity is stable at 64.3% avg (well within the healthy 50–70% range), vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.5 with 80–120 Hz dominant, and a brood and stores check on your next routine visit will confirm whether Iris is in a requeening gap or natural autumn contraction.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsIris shows a tight 3.7°F (2.1°C) daily swing (72.1–75.8°F / 22.3–24.3°C) — well within the ≤5.4°F healthy-damping threshold — with a ~190-minute outdoor temperature lag consistent with the Apimaye poly enclosure's thermal mass; humidity is flat at 62.9–65.4% reflecting active hygroregulation; the gas heater-scan (320°C ref 323 kΩ vs all-time avg 431 kΩ, approximately −25% below baseline) shows mid-step softening consistent with autumn propolis and honey-ripening activity, and the dominant vibration rhythm has shifted from 80–120 Hz to 5–20 Hz in the second half of the window — worth watching as a possible low-frequency DVAV buildup signal, though the acoustic baseline is still being established so no per-band spectral comparison is yet possible.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs sound_energy (14d) | r = +0.19The PCA colony-state index for Iris is rising over the 14-day window with in-hive temp and sound energy as co-dominant channels; the 14-day sound energy fall (−13.8 dBFS, from −10.5 to −24.4 dBFS) coincides with the temperature cooling arc and together describe the colony winding down its brood-heating effort — a coherent seasonal signal, not independent anomalies. The 100–150 Hz daily rhythm is strengthening (2.0 → 4.4 dB swing), consistent with Ramsey et al.'s observation that low-band colony hum amplifies as cooler nights concentrate cluster activity.📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169:112961⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −10.6°F (−5.9°C): 24h avg now 74.2°F (23.5°C), −8.4°F (−4.7°C) below all-time avg — consistent with a broodless interval or autumn brood contraction; queen/brood and stores status worth confirming on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Iris's brood frames for fresh eggs and heft the hive to confirm stores are adequate — the multi-week cooling trend with retained damping is most likely a natural autumn brood contraction, but confirming stores and queen status will close out this watch. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 63/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 is holding a 24h avg of 84.8°F (29.3°C) — +1.1°F (+0.6°C) above the all-time avg of 83.7°F (28.7°C) — with a tight 7.2°F (4.0°C) daily swing and a warm offset of ~30°F (~17°C) above outdoor; damping is fully retained and the colony is thermally stable, though the 14-day drift of −6.3°F (−3.5°C) from a prior peak of 91.1°F (32.8°C) is consistent with ongoing brood contraction after the September broodless event. Humidity is steady at 56.7% avg (healthy 50–70% range), vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.9 with 80–120 Hz dominant, and a brood check on your next routine visit remains the right next step.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #2 shows a 7.2°F (4.0°C) daily swing (80.1–87.3°F / 26.7–30.7°C) with a distinct daytime peak and overnight decline, consistent with a partially reduced brood nest still generating heat; the gas heater-scan (320°C ref 54 kΩ vs all-time avg 51 kΩ) is essentially at its historical baseline with a strong 10/10-step daily cycle and a dominant rhythm shift from 100°C to 280°C steps — reflecting normal diurnal VOC load variation tied to fanning and cluster activity, not a new chemical event; vibration shows the strongest daily peaks in the apiary (avg 3.5× baseline spike, 15/15 days) with the dominant rhythm band shifting 120–160 Hz to 20–50 Hz, and the acoustic baseline is still being established.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.68The genuine deconfounded correlation between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r=−0.68, partial r=−0.94 controlling for outdoor weather) reflects colony metabolic coupling: as brood rearing contracts and the thermal footprint shrinks, the standing VOC load from brood pheromones, propolis, and fanning activity also decreases, lifting gas resistance back toward its baseline — a coherent picture of a colony in an active but contracting brood-rearing state.📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Seeley 1985, Honeybee Ecologyvibration_rms vs vibration_kurtosis (14d) | r = -0.67The strong inverse relationship between vibration RMS and kurtosis (r=−0.67) in Hive #2 is a healthy signature: the colony's large periodic fanning/activity spikes (up to 56.2 mG, 3.5× baseline) are smooth, rhythmic, and drive RMS up while kurtosis stays near 3.0, meaning these are sustained colony activity events — not impulsive disturbances — consistent with a well-populated colony going about its October routine.📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Nieh & Tautz 2000, J. Exp. Biol. 203:1573⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −6.3°F (−3.5°C): 24h avg 84.8°F (29.3°C) sits just below the 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band, consistent with a continuing broodless or reduced-brood interval after the September 19 event; queen/brood status worth confirming on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #2's brood frames for fresh eggs — the stable damping, normal vibration, and gas-resistance at baseline all point to an active colony in a natural brood-reduced state, and confirming new brood will close out the September broodless-interval watch. -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 remains the most thermally stable colony in the apiary: the 24h avg of 82.2°F (27.9°C) is +1.1°F (+0.6°C) above the all-time avg of 81.1°F (27.3°C) and the 14-day trend shows a gentle +2.1°F (+1.2°C) warming drift — the only hive trending warmer — with a 3.3°F (1.8°C) daily swing (80.5–83.8°F / 27.0–28.8°C) that is exceptionally well-damped for October conditions. Humidity averaged 51.9% (just inside the 50–70% healthy range), vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.6 with 80–120 Hz dominant, and no inspections or voice logs were recorded — everything here is settled heading into autumn.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #1 has the tightest daily swing in the apiary (3.3°F / 1.8°C peak-to-trough), well within the ≤5.4°F healthy-damping threshold; the gas heater-scan (320°C ref 465 kΩ vs all-time avg 482 kΩ, approximately −4%) is essentially at baseline with an 8/10-step daily cycle and a dominant rhythm shift from 150°C to 100°C steps — a routine late-season propolis/brood-pheromone diurnal pattern; vibration peaks 14/15 days (avg 1.5× baseline), and the apiary-wide ~35 dBFS acoustic step-change around September 30 is a firmware format transition shared identically across all nodes, not a biological event — the acoustic baseline is still being established for per-band comparison.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriesgas_resistance vs temperature (14d) | r = -0.89The strong partial correlation between gas resistance and in-hive temperature controlling for outdoor weather (r=−0.89) in Hive #1 reflects tight metabolic coupling: as the colony sustains its gentle warming trend, the standing load of brood pheromones (E-β-ocimene), propolis terpenes, and wax volatiles scales with thermal output, producing the inverse gas signal — a sign of a well-regulated, actively heating colony rather than a chemical event.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Seeley 1985, Honeybee Ecology▹ Action: On your next routine visit, confirm fresh eggs in Hive #1's brood frames — the continued gentle warming trend and stable damping make this the apiary's most settled colony heading into autumn. -
Hive #3 critical Score: 42/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 has triggered the autumn thermoregulation-damping failure signature: the 24h swing of 7.8°F (4.3°C) is 54% of the outdoor swing of 14.4°F (8.0°C), the 14-day drift of −11.9°F (−6.6°C) is the steepest in the apiary, and the current avg of 72.6°F (22.5°C) — while still +18.3°F (+10.1°C) above outdoor — is showing an amplitude ratio that the literature associates with the pre-failure state weeks before colony death in slow declines, and days in a starving colony. No inspections or voice logs were recorded; the right first step is to heft the hive within the next few days without opening it — if it feels light, feed immediately with 2:1 sugar syrup placed directly over the cluster.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #3 shows a 7.8°F (4.3°C) daily swing (69.2–77.0°F / 20.7–25.0°C) — above the 5.4°F healthy-damping threshold — with the in/out amplitude ratio at 0.54, meaning the hive is not buffering the outdoor swing as strongly as Hive #1 or Hive #2; the gas heater-scan shows a notably elevated low-temperature signature (100°C step at 9,148 kΩ, +49% vs this hive's own baseline of ~101 kΩ all-time avg at 320°C), with a strengthening 100°C daily rhythm (+48% → +92% swing) that may reflect increased honey metabolism as stored energy is consumed; humidity ranged widely (45.9–67.5%, avg 53.1%), and the acoustic baseline is still being established with sound energy stable at −51.0 dBFS avg — the acoustic stability means there is no evidence of an abrupt population loss, but it does not confirm stores are adequate.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.6The genuine deconfounded correlation between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r=−0.60, partial r=−0.72) in Hive #3 is consistent with the autumn-discriminator framework: as the thermal footprint contracts and the cluster burns stored honey to maintain what warmth it can, the VOC load tracks the metabolic intensity — the low-temperature gas heater-scan steps (100–200°C) are rising relative to this hive's own history, a possible signal of increased honey-consumption metabolic activity, which warrants the stores check.📚 Reference: Harrison et al. 2026, J. Exp. Biol. 229:jeb252357, Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169:112961, Bencsik et al. 2023, Sensors 23:3588humidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.61The genuine deconfounded inverse coupling between humidity and gas resistance (r=−0.61) in Hive #3 reflects honey-metabolism water production: as the cluster burns stores, metabolic water is released, raising in-hive humidity, which simultaneously lowers MOX resistance through water-vapor adsorption on the SnO2 plate — a coupled signal of active energy expenditure, not a ventilation or disease event.📚 Reference: Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol. 54:1516, Human et al. 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397⚠️ Issue: Thermoregulation damping eroding: 24h swing 7.8°F (4.3°C) = 54% of outdoor swing (14.4°F / 8.0°C), with 14-day cooling drift of −11.9°F (−6.6°C) — the steepest in the apiary; this is the pre-failure amplitude signature documented by Minaud et al. 2024. Warm offset of +18.3°F (+10.1°C) is retained, but the trajectory warrants a stores check within the next few days.⚠️ Issue: Gas heater-scan low-temperature steps (100–200°C) elevated +34–49% above this hive's own baseline, consistent with increased metabolic activity and honey consumption; no corroborating acoustic drop, but combined with the damping erosion this is worth monitoring closely.▹ Action: Heft your Hive #3 within the next few days (no need to open it): lift the back of the hive slightly — if it feels noticeably light compared to your other hives, place 2:1 sugar syrup (by weight) directly over the cluster seam immediately; if daytime highs are below ~50°F (10°C) use fondant or a sugar brick on the top bars instead.▹ Action: If the hive feels adequately heavy, note the weight mentally and check brood frames for fresh eggs on your next routine visit to determine whether the damping erosion reflects a brood-break or a genuine contraction in colony strength.