As of September 30, 2026, all four colonies are carrying their workers through a normal September cooling arc, with outdoor temperatures ranging 52–61°F (11–16°C) and a steady barometer pointing to calm conditions ahead; the apiary-wide acoustic sound energy anomalies (large negative z-scores vs. each hive's own rhythm) reflect the natural low-activity pre-dawn window rather than population loss, while Iris and Hive #3 continue their multi-week brood-contraction cooling trends and warrant a brood-frame check on the next routine visit.
All three Apimaye poly hives (Hive #1, Hive #2, Hive #3) show a strong intra-hive temp ~ gas-resistance anti-correlation (r = −0.45 to −0.68 on deseasonalized residuals), consistent with brood-pheromone and propolis volatile load rising and falling with the colony's thermal footprint as brood rearing fluctuates through the autumn transition — a textbook seasonal coupling documented in Stalidzans et al. 2017 and Maisonnasse et al. 2010.
All four hives show clear daily fanning/vibration rhythms with 80–120 Hz as the dominant vibration band and outdoor temperature leading in-hive readings by 2–4 hours, consistent with the Apimaye poly enclosures' thermal-mass buffering; the large first-half → second-half sound energy drops (~6–15 dBFS) across all hives reflect the natural pre-dawn activity minimum, not population loss, and are an expected circadian pattern documented in Ramsey et al. 2020.
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Iris warning Score: 68/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive continues its now three-week gradual cooling arc: the 24h avg of 77.2°F (25.1°C) is −6.0°F (−3.3°C) below the all-time avg of 83.2°F (28.4°C), fully consistent with a broodless or brood-reduced interval in which workers are simply not heating a full brood zone — the acoustic baseline is still being established (0 usable spectral samples), so no per-band comparison is possible yet, but the sound level and vibration kurtosis of 2.8 (80–120 Hz dominant) show no impulsive disturbance. Humidity averaged 68.0% — within the healthy 50–70% range though touching 88.7% at its peak, likely tied to the humidity step-change noted around September 24 — and a brood-frame check on your next routine visit will clarify whether Iris is in a requeening gap or natural autumn contraction.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsA 12.5°F (6.9°C) daily temperature swing (67.9–80.4°F / 19.9–26.9°C) is active and consistent with a brood-reduced or broodless cluster riding the Apimaye enclosure's thermal mass; humidity peaked at 88.7% intra-day, coinciding with the September 24 humidity step (+14.4 RH points on deseasonalized residuals) — likely a weather or ventilation event through the screened floor rather than a colony anomaly. The 100–150 Hz sound band is now the dominant rhythm driver (shifted from 150–200 Hz), with that band strengthening from 2.1 to 4.1 dB daily swing — consistent with growing low-frequency colony background hum as the population clusters; the gas heater-scan shows strong daily rhythm across 8/10 steps (dominant rhythm shifting 300°C → 100°C), with low-temperature steps (100–200°C) dramatically strengthening (+9% → +35% swing), suggesting an increase in heavier volatile cycling likely tied to propolis or stored-honey activity in cooler conditions.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriesin-hive temp vs in-hive humidity (14d) | r = -0.39The partial correlation of r=−0.39 (humidity ~ temp, controlling for outdoor temp) in Iris reflects standard psychrometric physics: as the cluster cools toward a broodless resting state, the same absolute water content registers as higher RH% at the lower temperature — consistent with hygroregulation decoupled from active brood-zone heating documented in Human et al. 2006. The humidity step-change around September 24 aligns with the screened-floor ventilation coupling during cooling autumn nights and is a seasonal phenomenon, not a colony defect.📚 Reference: Human et al. 2006, Eouzan et al. 2019 (PLOS ONE / PMC6368279), Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol.⚠️ Issue: Three-week cooling drift: 24h avg 77.2°F (25.1°C), now −6.0°F (−3.3°C) below all-time avg — consistent with broodless interval or seasonal brood contraction; queen/brood status worth confirming on next routine visit.⚠️ Issue: Humidity peaked at 88.7% intra-day with a sustained step-change since ~September 24 (+14 RH points); worth monitoring ventilation through the screened floor as autumn nights cool further.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Iris's brood frames for fresh eggs — confirming whether the ongoing cooling trend reflects a requeening gap or normal autumn brood contraction will close out this watch; no urgency, this is a planned-visit item. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 65/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 has resumed a clear cooling trend: after last week's encouraging brood-recovery signal, the 24h avg of 88.0°F (31.1°C) is now −4.3°F (−2.4°C) below the all-time avg of 84.1°F (28.9°C) and the 14-day drift shows −4.3°F (−2.4°C) from 92.4°F (33.5°C), sitting just below the 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — a broodless or reduced-brood interval remains the most likely explanation, supported by the robust intra-hive temp ~ gas resistance anti-correlation (r=−0.68, r_partial=−0.94) showing the colony's volatile load tracks its thermal footprint; the acoustic baseline is still being established so no per-band comparison is possible, but vibration kurtosis of 3.1 (80–120 Hz dominant) is normal. Humidity averaged 58.8% (healthy 50–70% range) and the sound energy anomaly (z=−21.8) is explained by the pre-dawn measurement window — a brood check on your next routine visit remains the right next step.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsA wide 14.4°F (8.0°C) daily temperature swing (80.3–94.7°F / 26.8–34.8°C) is active and characteristic of a hive in partial brood-rearing mode with a screened floor; the 160–200 Hz vibration band carries the strongest daily rhythm (7.6 dB), consistent with active fanning ventilation effort during the warmest part of the day, and vibration rhythm has shifted its dominant band from 5–20 Hz to 120–160 Hz — reflecting a transition from structural/wind-dominated low-frequency motion toward colony-activity harmonics. The gas heater-scan shows all 10 steps cycling daily (strongest at 100°C, +41% swing), with the dominant rhythm step shifting from 100°C to 250°C and the high-temperature steps (350–400°C) dramatically strengthening (+24% → +48% swing) — the high-T step intensification suggests a growing load of light reducing gases (e.g. brood pheromones, propolis volatiles) cycling with daily temperature, consistent with an active cluster in the brood-recovery phase documented in Maisonnasse et al. 2010.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriesin-hive temp vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.68The strong deconfounded anti-correlation (r=−0.68; partial r=−0.94 controlling for outdoor weather) means Hive #2's VOC load rises and falls with its own thermal activity independent of ambient conditions — when the colony heats brood, E-β-ocimene, propolis terpenes, and honey-ripening volatiles increase proportionally; when brood rearing pauses and the cluster cools, these VOCs decrease. This is a healthy metabolic coupling, not a stress signal, consistent with Maisonnasse et al. 2010 and Bankova et al. 2000.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Stalidzans et al. 2017, Bankova et al. 2000, Apidologievibration RMS vs vibration kurtosis (14d) | r = -0.66The robust negative correlation between vibration RMS and kurtosis (r=−0.66) in Hive #2 indicates that higher overall vibration energy is associated with smoother, more periodic substrate motion — consistent with organized colony fanning and foraging activity producing regular low-frequency harmonics, while quieter periods show relatively more impulsive character; this is the expected inverse relationship between sustained colony metabolic activity and episodic disturbance events documented in Ramsey et al. 2020.📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Nieh & Tautz 2000, J. Exp. Biol.⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −4.3°F (−2.4°C): 24h avg now 88.0°F (31.1°C), just below the 93–97°F (34–36°C) brood band — consistent with broodless interval or brood contraction continuing after the September 19 broodless event; queen/brood status worth confirming on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #2's brood frames for fresh eggs — the tightly correlated temp/gas pattern and stable vibration suggest an active colony, and confirming brood will close out the September broodless-interval watch. -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 80/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 remains the most thermally stable colony in the apiary: the 24h avg of 83.5°F (28.6°C) is +2.6°F (+1.4°C) above the all-time avg of 80.9°F (27.2°C) and the 14-day trend shows a gentle +3.8°F (+2.1°C) warming drift — the only hive trending warmer this month — with a modest 12.6°F (7.0°C) daily swing (74.6–87.2°F / 23.7–30.6°C) well-damped by the Apimaye poly enclosure; the acoustic baseline is still being established, vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.8 (80–120 Hz dominant), and the sound energy anomaly (z=−16.1) is a pre-dawn activity minimum, not a population signal. Humidity averaged 56.5% (healthy 50–70% range, with a recent +6 RH step noted around September 27) and the strong intra-hive temp ~ gas resistance anti-correlation (r=−0.45, r_partial=−0.88) reflects the colony's healthy metabolic coupling — everything here is settled heading into autumn.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsA 12.6°F (7.0°C) daily temperature swing is active and well-buffered by the poly enclosure; the dominant vibration rhythm band has shifted from 5–20 Hz to 20–50 Hz between the first and second halves of the window, possibly reflecting a transition from structural/wind-dominated motion toward colony-activity-linked vibration as foraging patterns evolve in cooler September conditions. Gas heater-scan shows 8/10 steps cycling daily (strongest at 100°C, +30% swing), with low-temperature steps (100–200°C) declining slightly (−12–13%) — consistent with a modest reduction in heavier volatile load as the colony's brood footprint stabilizes or modestly contracts, fully in line with autumn transition physiology.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriesin-hive temp vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.45Hive #1's deconfounded temp ~ gas resistance anti-correlation (r=−0.45; partial r=−0.88 controlling for outdoor weather) shows the colony's VOC environment tracks its own thermal activity rather than ambient conditions — a healthy coupling where propolis terpenes, brood pheromones, and honey volatiles rise with colony heating effort and fall as the cluster rests; the mild decline in low-temperature heater-scan steps (100–200°C) over the past week is consistent with a gradual autumn reduction in heavier-molecular-weight brood and propolis volatiles as brood rearing moderates.📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE, Bankova et al. 2000, Apidologie▹ Action: On your next routine visit, confirm fresh eggs in Hive #1's brood frames — the continued gentle warming trend and stable vibration make this the apiary's most confident colony heading into autumn, and a quick brood check will close the loop. -
Hive #3 warning Score: 62/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 is showing the steepest cooling arc in the apiary: the 24h avg of 72.2°F (22.3°C) is −10.9°F (−6.1°C) below the all-time avg of 83.1°F (28.4°C), with a 14-day drift of −12.1°F (−6.7°C) — the largest of any hive — and the current reading of 69.5°F (20.8°C) is now within ~7°F of the outdoor temperature of 56.8°F (13.8°C), holding a meaningful warm offset but tracking the outdoor cycle more closely than ideal; the acoustic baseline is still being established so no per-band comparison is possible, vibration kurtosis is a normal 2.9 (80–120 Hz dominant), and the sound energy anomaly (z=−17.8) is a pre-dawn minimum. Humidity at 55.8% avg is healthy, and the intra-hive humidity ~ gas resistance anti-correlation (r=−0.60) is consistent with a cluster managing its internal chemistry independently; a brood-frame and stores check on your next routine visit is the right next step — particularly given the depth of the cooling trend.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsAn 8.9°F (4.9°C) daily temperature swing (62.8–75.3°F / 17.1–24.0°C) is active; the vibration dominant rhythm band has shifted from 80–120 Hz to 5–20 Hz between the first and second halves, and low-frequency vibration bands (5–20 Hz, 50–80 Hz) are trending slightly upward in the second half — worth passive monitoring as an increase in 5–20 Hz energy can reflect structural settling or wind exposure in cooler conditions. The gas heater-scan shows all 10 steps cycling daily with the strongest rhythm at 100°C (+48% swing, now strengthening to +76% in the second half), and low-temperature steps (100–200°C) are rising sharply (+29–42%) — a strengthening low-T gas rhythm suggests increasingly active heavy-volatile cycling, potentially reflecting autumn propolis work or honey-stores activity consistent with colony consolidation.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriesin-hive humidity vs gas resistance (14d) | r = -0.6The deconfounded humidity ~ gas resistance anti-correlation (r=−0.60) in Hive #3 indicates that higher internal humidity is associated with lower gas resistance (higher VOC load) independently of outdoor conditions — consistent with the colony's own ventilation and evaporative activity driving volatile concentration; when humidity rises (e.g. evening cluster consolidation or reduced fanning), heavier volatiles accumulate and the MOX plate responds, a physiological coupling documented in Human et al. 2006 and consistent with colony metabolic water and propolis cycling during autumn contraction.📚 Reference: Winston 1987, The Biology of the Honey Bee, Owens 1971, USDA Tech. Bull. 1429, Human et al. 2006⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −12.1°F (−6.7°C), the steepest in the apiary: 24h avg now 72.2°F (22.3°C), −10.9°F (−6.1°C) below all-time avg; current 69.5°F (20.8°C) holds a warm offset above outdoor 56.8°F (13.8°C) but warrants a brood and stores check on the next routine visit to confirm this is seasonal brood contraction and that stores are adequate.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #3's brood frames for fresh eggs and assess stores weight — the depth of the 14-day cooling drift (−12.1°F / −6.7°C) is the largest in the apiary and while the warm offset above outdoor temperatures remains intact, confirming adequate stores and brood status will close out this watch; battery at 3,976 mV remains well above the all-time low of 3,936 mV and is not an action item.