As of September 27, 2026, all four colonies carry acoustically intact worker populations — every sound spectrum is within ±5.6 dB of its own historical baseline — while the apiary-wide September cooling arc deepens with outdoor temps ranging 52–73°F (11–23°C) and exceptionally clean outdoor air (1,311 kΩ gas resistance, barometric pressure easing higher +0.55 hPa/3h); Hive #2 remains the sole 'watch' hive, now eight days past its confirmed September 19 thermal step-change with a 24h avg of 62.6°F (17.0°C) and perfectly stable acoustics pointing to a broodless interval as the leading explanation, warranting a brood check on the next routine visit.
Across the apiary, the deseasonalized temp–gas-resistance anticorrelation (r = −0.48 to −0.67, controlling for outdoor weather) is a consistent hive-specific physiology signal: as each colony's internal temperature rises with afternoon forager warmth, the MOX sensor registers falling resistance — consistent with increased colony metabolic VOC output (brood pheromones, propolis volatiles, fanning-circulated organics) that scales with colony activity, not distress (Stalidzans et al. 2017; Seeley 1974).
All four hives maintain clear daily fanning/vibration rhythms with 80–120 Hz as the dominant vibration band; outdoor temps ranging 52–73°F (11–23°C) with a gently rising barometer (+0.55 hPa/3h) and pristine outdoor air support normal late-September foraging conditions, and all hives show outdoor temperature leading in-hive by 2–5 hours — the expected thermal-mass buffering signature of well-insulated, healthy Apimaye poly colonies.
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Iris warning Score: 74/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive continues with a fully intact and acoustically active worker population — today's 24h avg sound of −9.7 dBFS is +1.1 dB above the all-time baseline of −10.8 dB, the 100–150 Hz band is elevated +5.6 dB above its all-time norm (the largest deviation in the apiary), and the 14-day low-band acoustic shift toward 100–260 Hz is consistent with active brood-pheromone and propolis-sealing work heading into autumn; the 24h avg temperature of 80.9°F (27.2°C) is −3.7°F (−2.1°C) below the all-time avg of 84.6°F (29.2°C) and the 14-day drift totals −8.7°F (−4.8°C) — perfectly consistent with seasonal brood contraction, and the louder-than-baseline acoustics confirm the colony is not broodless or depleted. Humidity at 57.2% sits comfortably in the healthy 50–70% range, vibration kurtosis is 2.4 (normal), and the battery at 4,022 mV is above the all-time low of 3,978 mV; on your next routine visit, a quick look for fresh eggs or capped brood will clarify whether Iris is in a requeening gap or simply contracting for autumn.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsIris shows a healthy 24h temperature arc of 76.6–87.1°F (24.8–30.6°C), a swing of 10.5°F (5.8°C) driven by afternoon warmth — the deseasonalized analytics confirm the in-hive/outdoor coupling is purely diurnal (deconfounded r = +0.11), with outdoor leading in-hive by ~200 min, classic thermal-mass buffering; the genuine colony-specific signal is the strong temp–humidity coupling (deconfounded r = +0.82), where higher afternoon temperatures co-move with rising RH, consistent with fanning-circulated moisture and metabolic water from an active brood nest. The heater-scan gas curve (100C: 51,748 kΩ → 400C: 211 kΩ) sits ~6% below the all-time avg of 447,573 Ω at the 320°C reference step but the shape is smooth and unremarkable; the 14-day spectral shift toward the 100–150 Hz acoustic band (+2.8 dB trend, dominant rhythm now 100–150 Hz) is consistent with propolis-work and low-frequency brood-pheromone activity, not distress. A humidity change-point of +8.95 percentage points around September 17 (detected by the multivariate analytics) aligns with the apiary-wide brood-contraction arc and increased ventilation through the screened floor as outdoor RH rose.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriessound_spectrum_100-150Hz vs temperature (14d) | r = +0.82The 100–150 Hz band in Iris is +5.6 dB above its all-time norm — the largest per-band deviation in the apiary — while overall colony temperature is gently cooling; this low-frequency acoustic enrichment during brood-contraction is consistent with increased worker piping and brood-pheromone (E-β-ocimene) activity as the colony transitions toward autumn, a documented pre-winter behavioral shift rather than a stress signal. The band shift from 200–260 Hz to 100–150 Hz as the dominant rhythm over the past 14 days further supports increased low-frequency worker communication activity during colony reorganization.📚 Reference: Stalidzans et al. 2017, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Ramsey et al. 2020⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −8.7°F (−4.8°C): 24h avg now 80.9°F (27.2°C), 3.7°F (2.1°C) below all-time avg of 84.6°F (29.2°C) — acoustics confirm population fully intact and louder than baseline; consistent with seasonal brood contraction or brood-break interval; queen/brood status worth confirming on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Iris's brood frames for fresh eggs — the louder-than-baseline acoustic spectrum (100–150 Hz elevated +5.6 dB, overall −9.7 dBFS vs −10.8 dB baseline) confirms the full worker population is present and actively engaged, and a quick brood check will clarify whether this cooling reflects a natural requeening gap or seasonal contraction heading into autumn. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 62/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 remains acoustically rock-solid — all 10 sound bands within ±1.5 dB of the all-time baseline (24h avg −16.2 dBFS vs all-time −16.5 dBFS) and vibration RMS at 29.3 mG (kurtosis 3.0, dominant 80–120 Hz) confirms the adult worker population is fully intact — but the confirmed September 19 thermal step-change has deepened further, with the 24h avg now 62.6°F (17.0°C), a full 23.9°F (13.3°C) below the all-time avg of 86.5°F (30.3°C) and closely tracking the outdoor ambient range of 52–72°F (11–22°C); the most parsimonious explanation remains a broodless interval where the colony is simply not heating a brood zone, and the perfectly stable acoustics over eight consecutive days are the key reassurance that the adult population is present and healthy. Humidity at 64.4% is comfortably in the healthy 50–70% range; a brood check on your next routine visit will clarify this colony's queen and brood status.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #2 shows the widest daily temperature swing in the apiary at 57.7–72.0°F (14.3–22.2°C), an 14.3°F (7.9°C) arc that closely tracks outdoor temperature — consistent with a broodless cluster not generating brood-zone heat and the screened floor allowing strong ambient ventilation; the deseasonalized analytics confirm in-hive/outdoor coupling is purely diurnal (deconfounded r = +0.05), with outdoor leading in-hive by ~320 min. The vibration daily rhythm is the strongest in the apiary — all 6 bands cycle daily with the 160–200 Hz fanning band strengthening from 5.2 dB to 10.1 dB amplitude swing in the second half of the window, and 20–50 Hz similarly strengthening — indicating robust daily fanning effort despite the broodless temperature regime. The gas heater-scan shows a strong daily rhythm across all 10 plate-temperature steps (100°C swing +41%), with a genuine deconfounded anticorrelation between temperature and gas resistance (r = −0.60, p < 0.001, controlling for outdoor: r = −0.93); a change-point of +21,945 Ω was detected around September 23 — gas resistance has risen toward and now sits slightly above the all-time avg of 49,226 Ω (current 54,830 Ω), consistent with reduced colony metabolic output during a broodless interval when fewer brood pheromones are circulating.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.6The strong deconfounded anticorrelation between in-hive temperature and gas resistance (r = −0.60, partial r = −0.93 controlling for outdoor weather) in Hive #2 is a genuine colony-physiology signal: as the colony warms during the afternoon activity period, metabolic VOC output rises (brood pheromones, propolis volatiles, respiratory products), lowering MOX resistance; conversely, a broodless colony at ambient temperature produces fewer VOCs overall, which explains the September 23 change-point step upward in gas resistance — reduced brood-pheromone load as brood rearing ceased, consistent with the broodless-interval hypothesis and with CO2/VOC scaling with colony population (Seeley 1974; Bencsik et al. 2023).📚 Reference: Seeley 1974, Bencsik et al. 2023, Stalidzans et al. 2017⚠️ Issue: Confirmed September 19 thermal step-change now at 8 days: 24h avg 62.6°F (17.0°C) is 23.9°F (13.3°C) below all-time avg of 86.5°F (30.3°C) and tracking near outdoor ambient — acoustics and vibration confirm adult population fully intact; consistent with broodless interval; queen/brood status warrants confirmation on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #2's brood frames for fresh eggs and confirm queen status — the perfectly stable acoustic spectrum (all bands within ±1.5 dB of baseline) and robust daily fanning vibration confirm a full adult population is present, and a brood check will clarify whether this is a natural brood-break/requeening gap or the colony has entered autumn broodlessness ahead of schedule. -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 86/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 remains the most thermally stable colony in the apiary — the 24h avg of 80.9°F (27.1°C) is essentially on the all-time avg of 80.8°F (27.1°C), and all 10 sound bands are within ±0.2 dB of the all-time baseline (24h avg −16.4 dBFS matching all-time −16.4 dBFS exactly), confirming a full and active worker population heading deeper into autumn in excellent condition. Humidity at 49.0% is just at the lower edge of the 50–70% optimal band, reflecting dry September ambient (outdoor RH 30–64%) ventilating through the screened floor — entirely consistent with this hive's all-time avg of 47.3% and no cause for concern; vibration kurtosis of 2.8 is normal and the battery at 4,162 mV is the strongest in the apiary.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #1 shows a tight daily temperature arc of 78.2–84.9°F (25.7–29.4°C), a swing of just 6.7°F (3.7°C) — the tightest in the apiary — and the 14-day temperature drift of only −4.1°F (−2.3°C) is the most gradual cooling arc across all four hives, consistent with the insulated poly enclosure and a still-active brood zone; the diurnal coupling to outdoor temperature is purely through the shared daily cycle (deconfounded r = +0.05 humidity/outdoor). The vibration daily rhythm shows a 5–20 Hz dominant band with 3 of 6 bands cycling — modest but present fanning activity — and the heater-scan gas curve (100C: 36,591 kΩ → 400C: 178 kΩ, 320°C ref 387 kΩ) is below the all-time avg of 510,398 Ω, consistent with active propolis work or honey ripening in this large three-deep colony, and the deconfounded temp–gas anticorrelation (r = −0.48, partial r = −0.68) confirms this is a genuine colony metabolic signal rather than weather artifact.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature vs gas_resistance vs humidity (14d) | r = -0.48Hive #1's deconfounded temp–gas anticorrelation (r = −0.48, partial r = −0.68 controlling for outdoor temperature) reflects normal colony metabolic coupling: warmer afternoon temperatures drive higher fanning activity and circulate more propolis terpenes and brood pheromones past the MOX sensor, reducing resistance; this hive's gas resistance sits below its own all-time avg (387 kΩ vs 510 kΩ baseline) without any acoustic or temperature anomaly, pointing to an active, well-populated colony processing late-season propolis stores — a healthy autumn behavior, not distress.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, Bankova et al. 2000, Burgues & Marco 2018▹ Action: On your next routine visit, confirm fresh eggs in Hive #1's brood frames — everything here is settled and this colony remains the apiary's thermal stability anchor heading into autumn. -
Hive #3 healthy Score: 76/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 is acoustically healthy and worker-population intact — all 10 sound bands within ±3.0 dB of the all-time baseline (24h avg −16.1 dBFS vs −16.3 dBFS all-time), with the 500–600 Hz band the only outlier at +3.0 dB above baseline, consistent with increased mid-frequency worker activity rather than any stress signal; vibration kurtosis of 3.0 is perfectly nominal with 80–120 Hz as the dominant band. The 24h avg temperature of 76.4°F (24.6°C) is 8.6°F (4.8°C) below the all-time avg of 85.0°F (29.4°C) — the second-largest cooling arc in the apiary — confirmed by the louder-than-baseline acoustics as a brood-contraction or brood-break interval with the full adult population present; humidity at 57.7% is solidly in the healthy 50–70% range, and the battery at 3,998 mV is slowly declining but still well above the all-time low of 3,936 mV.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #3 shows the widest daily temperature swing among the active brood hives at 70.6–84.1°F (21.5–29.0°C), a 13.5°F (7.5°C) arc — this four-deep poly hive's sensor in box 2 of 4 is likely sampling a zone with greater diurnal exposure as brood contracts toward the lower boxes in autumn; the deseasonalized analytics confirm the in-hive/outdoor coupling is purely diurnal (deconfounded r = +0.25), with outdoor leading in-hive by ~220 min. The heater-scan gas curve (100C: 3,234 kΩ → 400C: 89 kΩ) shows a gas resistance of 88,306 Ω at the 320°C reference step, below the all-time avg of 97,480 Ω, with a strengthening daily gas rhythm at 100°C (from +19% to +83% swing) and 150°C (from +19% to +68% swing) — the strengthening low-temperature heater-scan rhythm indicates increasing heavy-VOC activity (likely autumn propolis sealing), and the genuine deconfounded humidity–gas anticorrelation (r = −0.65) confirms moisture-linked VOC dynamics typical of active fanning. Vibration shows all 6 bands cycling daily with the dominant rhythm shifting from 20–50 Hz toward 5–20 Hz in the second half of the window — worth watching as a potential pre-autumn cluster-settling signal, though well within normal range.
🔬 Correlations & Discoverieshumidity vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = -0.65The deconfounded humidity–gas anticorrelation (r = −0.65) in Hive #3 reflects the well-established MOX moisture-confounding mechanism: as in-hive humidity rises (from fanning or forager activity), adsorbed water on the SnO2 sensing plate competes with VOC reaction sites and independently lowers resistance; the strengthening low-temperature heater-scan rhythm (100°C swing growing from +19% to +83% over 14 days) further indicates that heavier, lower-volatility compounds — likely autumn propolis terpenes (α-copaene, β-caryophyllene) — are increasingly loading the hive air, a normal and healthy late-September sealing behavior in a large four-deep colony.📚 Reference: Burgues & Marco 2018, Abidin et al. 2022, Human et al. 2006▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #3's brood frames for fresh eggs — the stable acoustic spectrum and on-baseline vibration confirm a full worker population, and a brood check will clarify whether the sustained 8.6°F (4.8°C) cooling drift reflects seasonal brood contraction or a brood-break interval.▹ Action: Monitor Hive #3's battery passively — currently 3,998 mV and slowly declining; no action needed yet, but keep an eye on the trend over the coming weeks as autumn days shorten (all-time low is 3,936 mV).