As of September 22, 2026, all four colonies are acoustically rock-solid — worker populations fully intact across the board — while continuing a textbook September brood-contraction arc into autumn; the barometric tendency is gently rising (+0.90 hPa/3h) and outdoor air is exceptionally clean (~1,428 kΩ gas resistance), with foraging conditions appropriate for late September. The apiary-wide status remains 'watch' solely for Hive #2, whose sustained 12.4°F (6.9°C) 14-day cooling drift with a confirmed change-point around September 18 now sits 9.6°F (5.3°C) below its all-time average — acoustics remain perfectly stable, but a brood/queen check on the next routine visit is warranted.
Across all four colonies, the deseasonalized analytics confirm that in-hive temperature and humidity move together as a genuine physiological couple (r = +0.60–0.89), consistent with the colony metabolic-water and psychrometric mechanism described by Human et al. 2006 — as brood rearing winds down in September, both channels drift lower in concert, providing a clean two-channel fingerprint of the seasonal brood-contraction arc rather than any single anomalous signal. Hive #2's gas resistance change-point (+7,645 Ω step ~September 18, r = −0.84 gas vs. temperature after deconfounding) confirms that its VOC load decreased as the brood nest cooled — consistent with reduced brood pheromone (E-β-ocimene) emission as larval biomass contracted, a well-documented seasonal pattern (Maisonnasse et al. 2010).
All four hives maintain clear daily vibration fanning rhythms with 80–120 Hz as the dominant band; Hive #2 leads daily fanning amplitude at ~4.0× baseline, Hive #3 at ~1.9×, and Iris and Hive #1 at ~1.5× — a healthy September foraging cadence consistent with the 54.9–78.6°F (12.7–25.9°C) outdoor temperature window. In-hive humidity is settled in the 45–54% range across the apiary, comfortably within healthy bounds and consistent with reduced brood-water demand during a brood-break or contraction state heading into autumn.
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Iris healthy Score: 78/100📋 Overall Health
Your Iris hive continues to sound excellent — the 24h acoustic average of −10.6 dBFS is right on its all-time −10.8 dB baseline with all 10 bands within ±2.2 dB, confirming the worker population is fully present and active; the 14-day cooling drift of −4.7°F (−2.6°C) now averaging 84.1°F (28.9°C) vs. the all-time average of 86.6°F (30.3°C) is well within the seasonal brood-contraction arc. Humidity at 47.1% is slightly below the 50–70% optimal range but consistent with the dry outdoor ambient (34% RH) ventilating through the screened floor — no colony concern. Gas resistance at ~452 kΩ is essentially on its ~451 kΩ all-time average, vibration at 17.7 mG (kurtosis 2.7, peak 48 Hz, dominant 80–120 Hz) is right on the 17.2 mG all-time average, and the battery at 4,038 mV is above its 3,988 mV all-time low; confirm laying status on your next routine visit.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsIris shows a modest 4.1°F (2.3°C) 24h temperature arc (82.1–86.2°F / 27.8–30.1°C), well within the healthy ≤5.4°F (3°C) brood-clamping threshold for an R≈6.93 insulated poly hive, with the outdoor thermal-mass lag of ~190 min confirming the colony is buffering ambient appropriately. Vibration fanning rhythm is consistent — 15/15 days showing daily peaks averaging 1.5× baseline (16.5 mG → 25.1 mG), with the dominant vibration band holding at 80–120 Hz; a modest shift of the per-band daily rhythm from 200–260 Hz to 100–150 Hz in the sound spectrum is within casual variation (max +2.5 dB, well under the ±5 dB significance threshold) and is not a colony concern. Gas heater-scan shows a modest low-temperature step decrease (100°C −15%, 150°C −12%, 200°C −12%) that co-varies with the September humidity step-change and dry ambient conditions — consistent with reduced moisture-related VOC load as the brood nest contracts, not a chemical event of concern.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs humidity_in (14d) | r = +0.89The strong deconfounded temp–humidity coupling (r = +0.89) in Iris reflects the well-established psychrometric relationship in brood nests: as the colony reduces brood heating during September contraction, both temperature and absolute water vapor content fall together, so RH tracks temperature even as ambient humidity is decoupled (deconfounded r ≈ +0.01 for in-hive vs. outdoor humidity). The September 16 humidity step-change (+8.77 pp) is consistent with the colony relaxing evaporative-cooling effort as ambient temperatures cooled below the fanning threshold — a seasonal metabolic transition, not a ventilation fault.📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401, Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONEgas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = +0.35The partial correlation of gas resistance with in-hive temperature (r = +0.35, controlling for outdoor weather) means that as the brood nest cools, gas resistance rises slightly — i.e. VOC load decreases with cooling — consistent with reduced E-β-ocimene emission from contracting larval biomass and reduced fanning-driven VOC circulation as September progresses; the current ~452 kΩ reading sits right on the all-time average, confirming no unusual chemistry is present.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors 18(2):339⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −4.7°F (−2.6°C): 24h avg now 84.1°F (28.9°C) vs. all-time avg 86.6°F (30.3°C) — acoustics confirm population fully intact; brood status warrants confirmation on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, glance at Iris's brood frames for fresh eggs — the perfectly stable acoustic spectrum and on-baseline vibration confirm the worker population is fully present, and a quick brood check will confirm whether this gradual drift reflects seasonal contraction or a brood-break interval. -
Hive #2 warning Score: 70/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #2 remains acoustically rock-solid — all 10 sound bands within ±1.2 dB of the all-time baseline (overall −16.4 dBFS vs. all-time −16.5 dBFS) and vibration at 20.0 mG (kurtosis 3.0, peak 50 Hz, dominant 80–120 Hz) confirms the worker population is fully intact — but a confirmed change-point around September 18 (−7.23°F / −4.0°C step) has deepened the 14-day cooling drift to −12.4°F (−6.9°C), with the 24h average now 82.6°F (28.1°C), sitting 9.6°F (5.3°C) below the all-time average of 92.2°F (33.5°C); this is the most significant thermal departure in the apiary and brood/queen status warrants a check on your next routine visit. Humidity at 51.9% is healthy and appropriate, gas resistance at ~44 kΩ is right on its own all-time average of ~44.7 kΩ (this hive's characteristically lower MOX baseline is its individual calibration signature, not a concern), and the battery at 4,064 mV is comfortably above its 4,010 mV all-time low.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #2 shows the widest 24h temperature arc in the apiary at 11.7°F (6.5°C) (76.8–88.5°F / 24.9–31.4°C), which exceeds the ≤5.4°F brood-clamping threshold and reflects a reduced or absent brood mass no longer pinning the thermal core — consistent with the September 18 change-point marking a brood-break onset, not a sensor fault. Vibration is the standout in the apiary: all 6 bands show a strong daily cycle (dominant 5–20 Hz rhythm at 8.0 dB swing), with daily fanning peaks averaging 4.0× baseline (13.1 mG → 53.1 mG) — the most vigorous fanning signature across all four hives, confirming a large, active adult population. The shift of the dominant vibration rhythm band from 120–160 Hz to 160–200 Hz in the second half of the window is consistent with the fanning wingbeat fundamental (~174 Hz) becoming more prominent as the colony ventilates without a brood nest to heat. Gas heater-scan mid-temperature steps (100°C +20%, 150°C +20%, 200°C +17%) show a modest rise consistent with the September 18 gas resistance change-point (+7,645 Ω) — as the brood nest cooled, VOC load (dominated by brood pheromones and fanning-circulated volatiles) shifted, which the deconfounded gas–temperature partial correlation (r = −0.84) captures cleanly.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs humidity_in (14d) | r = +0.62The deconfounded temp–humidity coupling (r = +0.62) in Hive #2 reflects the same psychrometric brood-nest mechanism seen across the apiary: as brood rearing winds down following the September 18 change-point, both temperature and evaporative water load fall in concert, yielding correlated declines in both channels that are a colony metabolic signal, not an equipment artifact.📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401, Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONEgas_resistance vs temperature_in (14d) | r = -0.84The strong inverse partial correlation between gas resistance and in-hive temperature (r = −0.84, controlling for outdoor weather) is the sharpest gas–temperature coupling in the apiary and tells a coherent story: as the brood nest cooled around September 18, gas resistance rose (VOC load decreased), consistent with reduced larval E-β-ocimene emission and less fanning-driven VOC circulation — the gas channel is behaving as expected for a colony entering a brood-break, with the current ~44 kΩ reading right on this hive's own all-time average.📚 Reference: Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531, Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors 18(2):339vibration_rms vs vibration_kurtosis (14d) | r = -0.48The deconfounded inverse relationship between vibration RMS and kurtosis (r = −0.48) indicates that when the colony's aggregate vibration energy is higher (active fanning peaks), the signal is more Gaussian and periodic (lower kurtosis), while quieter periods show slightly more impulsive character — consistent with organized, repetitive fanning behavior dominating the substrate signal during peak activity windows, a hallmark of a well-populated colony managing ventilation in the absence of brood heating.📚 Reference: Ramsey et al. 2020, Sci. Rep. 10:9798, Tautz 1996⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −12.4°F (−6.9°C) with confirmed change-point ~September 18: 24h avg now 82.6°F (28.1°C), 9.6°F (5.3°C) below all-time average of 92.2°F (33.5°C) — largest thermal departure in the apiary; acoustics confirm the worker population is fully intact, but brood/queen status warrants confirmation on next routine visit.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #2's brood frames for fresh eggs and confirm queen status — the perfectly stable acoustic spectrum and robust daily fanning vibration confirm a full adult population is present, and a brood check will clarify whether the September 18 thermal step-change reflects a natural brood-break interval or the colony has been queenless for several days. -
Hive #1 healthy Score: 82/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #1 is the most stable colony in the apiary — all 10 sound bands within ±0.2 dB of the all-time baseline (overall −16.3 dBFS, matching the all-time −16.4 dBFS average exactly) and vibration at 16.3 mG (kurtosis 2.6, peak 68 Hz, dominant 80–120 Hz) sits right on the 16.4 mG all-time average, confirming a full and active worker population. The 14-day cooling drift of only −2.9°F (−1.6°C), now averaging 80.0°F (26.7°C) vs. the all-time average of 81.4°F (27.5°C), is the mildest in the apiary and entirely consistent with a gentle autumn brood-contraction; humidity at 47.2% is slightly below the 50–70% optimal but reflects dry September ambient conditions through the screened floor, gas resistance at ~495 kΩ is close to the ~517 kΩ all-time average indicating a clean environment, and the battery at 4,188 mV is the strongest in the apiary — everything looks settled heading into autumn.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #1 shows a well-clamped 7.3°F (4.0°C) 24h arc (76.4–83.7°F / 24.7–28.7°C), just above the 5.4°F threshold — consistent with a colony in a brood-contraction state where the brood mass is reduced but the adult population remains fully present and provides moderate thermal buffering. Vibration fanning rhythm is reliable at 14/15 days showing daily peaks averaging 1.5× baseline (15.8 mG → 23.4 mG), with the dominant vibration band holding at 80–120 Hz; the shift of the per-band vibration rhythm from 20–50 Hz to 5–20 Hz between the first and second half of the window is consistent with the DVAV (dorsoventral abdominal vibration) circadian signal — a normal nocturnal rise in low-frequency colony communication activity — not a disturbance signal. The gas heater-scan's strong 10/10 band daily rhythm (150°C step leading at +35% swing) with the 200°C rhythm weakening (+41% → +24%) reflects the seasonal reduction in mid-temperature-range VOC (primarily brood pheromone and propolis terpene) cycling as the colony contracts, consistent with the humidity–gas resistance deconfounded coupling (r = +0.53).
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs humidity_in (14d) | r = +0.85The highest temp–humidity deconfounded coupling in the apiary (r = +0.85) reflects Hive #1's very stable thermal environment: with the mildest cooling drift of any hive, the psychrometric relationship between nest temperature and absolute water vapor content is tightly preserved, with both channels tracking the gentle September brood-contraction arc in close concert — a sign of a well-regulated colony maintaining consistent microclimate control.📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401, Ellis et al. 2008, J. Insect Physiol. 54:1516–1521humidity_in vs gas_resistance (14d) | r = +0.53The deconfounded humidity–gas resistance coupling (r = +0.53) in Hive #1 is noteworthy: higher in-hive humidity coincides with higher gas resistance (lower VOC load), which at first appears counterintuitive but reflects the dominant MOX confound — when ambient humidity rises and ventilation eases, the sensor's effective sensitivity to reducing gases shifts, slightly elevating apparent resistance; the partial correlation (r = −0.43 for gas vs. temperature controlling for outdoor weather) confirms the primary driver is brood-activity-linked VOC emission declining with the September thermal contraction.📚 Reference: Burgues & Marco 2018, Sensors 18(2):339, Maisonnasse et al. 2010, PLoS ONE 5(10):e13531▹ Action: On your next routine visit, confirm fresh eggs in Hive #1's brood frames — the perfectly stable acoustic spectrum and on-baseline vibration confirm the worker population is fully intact, and this is the mildest cooling drift in the apiary at −2.9°F (−1.6°C) over 14 days. -
Hive #3 healthy Score: 74/100📋 Overall Health
Your Hive #3 is acoustically healthy — all 10 sound bands within ±0.3 dB of the all-time baseline (overall −16.2 dBFS vs. −16.3 dBFS all-time average) — confirming the worker population is fully present and active despite a 14-day cooling drift of −9.2°F (−5.1°C), with the 24h average now 81.3°F (27.4°C), sitting 6.6°F (3.7°C) below the all-time average of 87.9°F (31.1°C); this is a brood-break or brood-contraction state with an intact colony. Humidity at 53.7% (with a wide 24h range of 42.4–68.4%) is within healthy bounds though more variable than its neighbors, likely reflecting the larger 4-box hive architecture ventilating more freely; gas resistance at ~96 kΩ is right on its own ~95.5 kΩ all-time average, vibration at 20.2 mG (kurtosis 3.1, peak 94 Hz, dominant 80–120 Hz) is right on the 20.4 mG all-time average, and the battery at 3,998 mV is above its all-time low of 3,972 mV — monitor passively as autumn solar charging continues to decline.
🌅 Diurnal Cycle PatternsHive #3 shows a 7.0°F (3.9°C) 24h temperature arc (77.6–84.6°F / 25.4–29.2°C), modestly above the 5.4°F brood-clamping threshold but consistent with a colony in brood-contraction where a reduced brood mass provides less thermal inertia; the outdoor thermal-mass lag of ~230 min confirms healthy colony-level buffering remains intact. Vibration is strong — all 6 bands showing daily cycles (dominant 5–20 Hz rhythm at 3.0 dB swing), with daily fanning peaks averaging 1.9× baseline (19.2 mG → 35.7 mG); the shift of the dominant vibration rhythm from 20–50 Hz to 80–120 Hz between the first and second half of the window reflects the fanning activity migrating toward the structural resonance band as the colony's thermoregulation load shifts with the season — normal autumn reorganization. A humidity anomaly (z = +4.4 on the latest reading at 68.4% peak intraday) is consistent with a transient fanning/ventilation event or local propolis work, and resolves within the healthy range; the gas heater-scan shows a strengthening daily rhythm at 100°C (+9% → +35% swing) and 375°C (+4% → +24% swing) that may reflect seasonal propolis terpene and heavier-VOC cycling increasing as the colony seals the larger hive volume for winter — a benign autumnal behavior.
🔬 Correlations & Discoveriestemperature_in vs humidity_in (14d) | r = +0.6The deconfounded temp–humidity coupling (r = +0.60) confirms Hive #3's in-hive microclimate is driven by colony metabolic activity rather than outdoor ambient conditions (deconfounded in-hive vs. outdoor humidity r ≈ +0.02) — as the brood nest contracts in September, both channels drift lower in concert, and the wider intraday humidity swings (42–68%) seen in this 4-box hive reflect the larger ventilated volume tracking the colony's fanning effort more visibly than in the 2-box neighbors.📚 Reference: Human, Nicolson & Dietemann 2006, Naturwissenschaften 93:397–401, Eouzan et al. 2019, PLOS ONEbattery vs vibration_rms (14d) | r = +0.19Battery is the third dominant channel in Hive #3's PCA colony-state index (alongside humidity and temperature), reflecting the passive solar charging decline as September days shorten at this apiary's latitude — the battery's proximity to its all-time low (3,998 mV current vs. 3,972 mV all-time low) is worth tracking passively over the coming weeks, but no action is warranted at present voltage levels; the rising colony-state PCA index suggests the colony's overall signal variance is increasing, consistent with the wider humidity swings and active fanning characteristic of early autumn preparation in a large hive.📚 Reference: Colin et al. 2025, Ecol. Inform. (single-sensor EWS), Minaud et al. 2024, Ecol. Indic. 169:112961⚠️ Issue: 14-day cooling drift of −9.2°F (−5.1°C): 24h avg now 81.3°F (27.4°C), 6.6°F (3.7°C) below all-time average — acoustics confirm population fully intact; brood/queen status warrants confirmation on next routine visit.⚠️ Issue: Battery at 3,998 mV approaching its all-time low of 3,972 mV — monitor passively as autumn solar charging decreases.▹ Action: On your next routine visit, check Hive #3's brood frames for fresh eggs — the stable acoustic spectrum and on-baseline vibration confirm a full worker population is present, and a brood check will clarify whether the sustained cooling drift reflects seasonal contraction or a brood-break interval.▹ Action: Monitor Hive #3's battery passively — it is near its all-time low of 3,972 mV; no action needed yet, but keep an eye on the trend over the coming weeks as autumn days shorten.